If you discovered yesterday that the Tory mayoral contest had been “thrown into chaos” over accusations of groping by one of the candidates, you might be forgiven for asking: what contest?
Back in the mists of time, the Conservatives could be relied upon to nominate a political heavyweight as their mayoral candidate. To run London was to show the country that the party was back from electoral oblivion. Looking at the current shortlist of three — Susan Hall, Mozammel Hossain and Daniel Korski — the Tories risk giving the impression they have conceded before a single ballot has been cast.
In 2000 and again in 2004, the Conservatives selected the avuncular and experienced Steve Norris, a former transport minister, as their standard bearer. Norris even managed to surpass the Labour candidate, Frank Dobson, albeit with an assist from Ken Livingstone.
But it was in 2008 and 2012 that the party showed it was all in on the capital. Pre-Brexit, partygate and a thousand other indiscretions, Boris Johnson really was that awful cliché, the Heineken politician, seducing parts (and reportedly members of) the electorate no other Tory could.
But more than anything, David Cameron’s decision to back Johnson demonstrated a desire to win at all costs. Both had something to gain in victory and lose in defeat. That it ejected a political rival from the Commons was of course a mere afterthought. Johnson’s twin victories in the capital represented the high-water mark for London Tories. Subsequent candidates have scarcely come close. Zac Goldsmith in 2016 at least enjoyed some name recognition, but ran a confused and contentious campaign that repeatedly accused Sadiq Khan of sharing a platform with extremists, something Khan denounced as “divisive” and “dog-whistling”. Five years later, Shaun Bailey made the mistake of appearing not to like the city he hoped to govern.
And the Tories are at risk of making the same mistake again. The shortlist for mayor revealed this month was greeted with a collective shrug. Indeed, it was the candidate not on the slate, minister for London and supposed frontrunner Paul Scully, who caused a rare frisson of excitement.
As for the top three, there is the former leader of Harrow council and City Hall Conservatives, Susan Hall — the only candidate to have held office at any level. Yet her values will not necessarily chime with a majority of Londoners, given her support for Donald Trump and her comparison of anti-Brexit protests with those who stormed the US Capitol. She has also suggested the black community has “problems with crime” and found time to call reality TV star Gemma Collins a “stupid fat blonde woman”.
Next is Moz Hossain, a senior barrister and hitherto unknown, most famous for employing in his campaign members of staff who appeared in the lockdown-busting “jingle and mingle” party.
Finally comes Daniel Korski, a tech entrepreneur and former No 10 special adviser, facing claims by author and television producer Daisy Goodwin that he allegedly touched her breast during a meeting in Downing Street a decade ago. Korski denies the allegations.
What makes the whole thing inexplicable is that Khan is eminently beatable. Back in April, a YouGov poll found that half of Londoners thought the Mayor was “doing badly”, compared with only a third who thought he was doing “well”, leaving him on -15. For context, in that same survey of Londoners, Rishi Sunak scored roughly the same.
The Tories also have multiple sticks with which to beat the Mayor, not least on the extension to the capital’s ultra low emission zone. The Standard supports Ulez on the basis that Londoners have the right to breathe clean air, regardless of their postcode. Nonetheless, the policy will create losers, and those people will be motivated to vote Conservative.
Finally, there is the voting system itself. In all previous elections for mayor, the supplementary electoral system meant that Khan benefited from the reallocation of Lib-Dem and Green supporters. But next year’s contest will be decided by first-past-the-post, depriving him of that buffer. It is not inconceivable that the winner could be elected on less than 40 per cent of the vote, something a strong Conservative candidate might hope to achieve.
That is why candidate quality matters. And while Labour has former ministers and shadow ministers running London, Greater Manchester and West Yorkshire, the Tories appear to be banning theirs from standing at all. Yet when they do pick high-profile and well-suited candidates, such as Andy Street in the West Midlands, they win. Somehow, the penny is yet to drop.
Money-saving expert Martin Lewis aside, the perfect candidate does not exist. And London is a tough nut for the Tories to crack given the demographics (even in 2019, when Labour suffered its worst general election defeat since 1935, the party won 49 of the city’s 73 seats). But to stand a chance, they must meet the electorate halfway. That means No 10 might have to not love the candidate — that person will need to run against an unpopular Tory Prime Minister.
The biggest mistake the Conservatives are making (well, beyond presiding over vast falls in living standards and soaring rents) is the belief that they can never win in London. The reality is, like the old football moan, they don’t want it enough.
It should not be impossible for a Justine Greening to run and win the nomination. That it appears outlandish lies the problem. And until the Tories are prepared to take a chance on London, it is not clear why Londoners should extend the same courtesy to them.
