Should Australia drop Mitchell Starc? It doesn't matter whether you hold strong views on the fast bowler's inability to take wickets with the old ball, or whether you've never heard of the bloke. The real question is this: would his replacement be better or worse?
And it is the same question Conservative MPs are asking themselves. They see a prime minister who has taken the party to 20+ points behind in the polls and a Number 10 media operation performing so badly that a news story about a Tory donor making racist comments – which might have lasted no longer than a day if handled correctly – consumed the best part of a week.
But there's no getting away from it. Who would replace Sunak, and would she do better? Those motivated by betrayal narratives (that is, supporters of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss) were rooting against Sunak from the start. As such, the prime minister is only in danger if he begins to lose the confidence of the One Nation group which, despite the rightward drift of the Conservative Party, remains the single largest faction.
Helpfully for the prime minister, the One Nation caucus fears something worse than a general election: the Conservative Party membership. It is right to. On all but one occasion since the present voting system for Tory leader was introduced by William Hague in 1998, the members have elected the more rightwing of the two candidates. The exception was in 2005, when David Cameron defeated David Davis.
Consequently, the only realistic way a challenge will progress is if one candidate runs unopposed, like Michael Howard in 2003. But this still doesn't resolve the 'who?' question. Could it be Penny Mordaunt, who don't forget in 2022 came within eight votes of knocking Truss out and making it to the final two against Sunak, whom she was heavily favoured to defeat?
But why would the current bookies' favourite to succeed Sunak, Kemi Badenoch, grant Mordaunt a free run at the top job? Sure, Badenoch would prefer to become leader after, not before a potentially crushing general election defeat. But politicians who wait for the perfect moment to run rarely seize the crown.
Here's the thing: does a more consumer-friendly leader than Sunak exist within the Conservative Parliamentary Party? Probably. But there is no guarantee that person will succeed him, or that they wouldn't be forced to call a general election so soon after winning that they only serve to bring forward the bloodletting.
At some point, Tory MPs will have to face facts: there is no leader, no policy, no communications strategy that will magically undo the political damage wrought by Partygate, the mini-Budget or a thousand and one other complaints about a four-term government. Sometimes, as the saying goes, 'you have to dance with the one who brung ya.'This article appears in our award-winning newsletter, West End Final – delivered 4pm daily – bringing you the very best of the paper, from culture and comment to features and sport. Sign up here.
