The speed with which the Assad dictatorship was overthrown has taken most external observers by surprise, including agencies from Russia, Iran, America, Britain and France. Those in the know were closer to the scene of the action – Turkey, Israel and Saudi Arabia – to name but three.
The governments and militaries of all three are likely to have been more than mere spectators. The immediate prospects for their nations and peoples depends very much what kind of government and order can be brought to Syria’s cracking human mosaic.
“We knew something was moving, but are surprised at the speed of events,” a senior British intelligence commander warned me in the middle of last week. The complete collapse of the Assad Baathist regime must be causing even sharper intakes of breath.
But before we indulge in the forensics of looking at how this latest revolution in Damascus came about, there is the more urgent question of what happens next, and what are the consequences of possible, and quite likely, further violence and civil war across the region.
The commanders of the Sunni Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Shams – HTS – under Abu Mohammed al-Jolani are now trying to establish order in Damascus. They are also trying to form an interim government, inviting key players to join from the millions of Syrians now fled abroad.
It is unlikely that any meaningful government can be found to rule the entire country
So complex is the makeup of Syria and its peoples, and so twisted the legacy of 13 years of civil war, that it is unlikely that any meaningful government can be found to rule the entire country.
Elements of the broad coalition that ousted the Assad clan are already fighting each other. The Turkish backed forces of the National Army of Syria have taken over the key northern town of Mandjib – pushing out the American-backed Kurds of the Syrian Democratic Forces.
The Kurdish popular forces, YPG, are about the toughest fighters in the region – with many of their best units commanded by women. They have been holding prisoner members of the Islamic State that spread terror throughout eastern Syria for nearly ten years. Defeat for the YPG by Turkey might mean the IS detainees would be released to return to their bad old ways.
While sheer disorder and anarchy must be the first worry – the kinds of social disorder and violence seen in Iraq and Libya when when Saddam and Gadaffi were ousted – the second must be the further outflow of refugees.
Most would head for Europe. There are currently about five to six million exiles from Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq, in camps and temporary homes on the borders of Turkey, in Lebanon and beyond. Refugees on the move can be vehicles for terrorist cells. Islamic State elements are still at large in Syria itself. The American Air Force carried out bombing raids on IS positions in eastern Syria even as the Assad entourage was heading out of the door in Damascus for Russia.
At the same time Israel has moved armoured units to the buffer zone on the Golan Heights. The Israel air force has carried out air strikes against arsenals and arms dumps of the Syrian Army and their Hezbollah allies. It is feared that some may still contain stocks of chemical weapons.
Were Russia and its inconvenient ally, Iran, asleep at the wheel in Syria, ignorant of the countrywide insurgency al-Jolani was cooking up from Idlib?
The sheer quantity and quality of arms across the region is a major worry. It could prove an Aladdin’s cave for terrorists wanting to restock and tool up. The hundreds of tanks, howitzers, rocket batteries now abandoned in Syria would be valuable to both sides in the war in Ukraine.
Russia has warned against threats to its two main military bases, at the port of Tartous for the Russian navy, and the airbase at Hmeimim south east of Latakia. Up to 3,000 Russian military and civilian support staff are thought to be still in Syria. Loss of Tartous would be the loss of Russia’s principal warm water port, its main and only self-sufficient naval hub in the Mediterranean and Middle East.
Were Russia and its inconvenient ally, Iran, asleep at the wheel in Syria, ignorant of the countrywide insurgency al-Jolani was cooking up from Idlib?
The answer must be pretty much, yes. Russia was distracted by Ukraine, and Iran had been hit hard by Israeli’s 100 bomber strike in mid-October. Its principal ally and client, Hezbollah had been badly damaged by Israel’s strikes on its leadership and forward units in Lebanon, by land and air attack.
Hezbollah formed the backbone to the Assad army, enfeebled by years of civil war, infighting and terror, and drugs. Once Hezbollah announced it could no longer be the prime backer of Assad and his military rule just a few weeks ago, the game was more or less up.
Now two key regional actors are moving quickly to strengthen their grip – Turkey and Israel. Both have been active along the borders of Syria already, and this could be another source of instability.
The stories of insurgency and outside intervention in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya in the opening quarter of the 21st Century provide no template and guidance as to what should happen next. Quite the reverse: the whole story of all three countries should be a warning to allies and interested parties as to what not to do.
We have plain before us the risks from a fragmented country, never really a nation and now ungovernable, shattered mosaic. With this comes the prospect of another uncontrolled outflow of refugees and terrorists, and a flood of conventional and exotic weaponry, including chemical agents.
As Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron recognised at their informal Paris summit this weekend, nations and powers must quickly produce a stabilisation and security plan for Syria.
It is something Keir Starmer might discuss during his current visit to the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. But he must bring some semblance of credibility about Britain’s offer. Unfortunately, the statement this weekend by his Chancellor Rachel Reeves that she has no more money for defence, doesn’t help.
Robert Fox is defence editor
