It is easy to frame the release of the intelligence report on the gruesome murder of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul as an attempt by President Joe Biden to “reset” the U.S.-Saudi relationship. Biden has disdained the Trump administration’s closeness with the Saudi kingdom, characterized by unquestioned support and limitless weapons sales, sometimes coordinated via WhatsApp between Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The report from the Director of National Intelligence provided almost no new information directly linking bin Salman to the murder, affirming only that he “approved an operation to capture or kill Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.” Still, that’s a tougher line than the Trump administration ever used.
Several top Saudi officials now face sanctions, including General Ahmed al-Asiri, previously the deputy head of Saudi intelligence, and the members of the Saudi Rapid Intervention Force who conducted the killing; notably, however, the crown prince—commonly referred to by his initials, MBS—will not be sanctioned. The only move that could affect him is that the State Department will now be empowered to revoke or restrict visas for individuals harassing dissidents and journalists extraterritorially, a fairly clear reference to the crown prince.
Yet, despite these moves, like so many aspects of his nascent presidency, Biden’s approach to Saudi Arabia so far is mostly a reversion to the pre-Trump status quo, rather than an overdue and fundamental shift in policy.
But a fundamental shift in policy is needed. The status quo in Saudi Arabia is unsustainable. As the world shifts away from reliance on Saudi oil, leaders in Riyadh can no longer afford to pay male citizens to sit in an office and female citizens to sit at home, while the real work is done by expat laborers. MBS has accelerated an economic and social transition that is necessary and should be encouraged. Eventually moving toward “normality” will mean either revolution in Saudi Arabia, or a less authoritarian government.
Biden should help support Saudi Arabia in this transition. But to avoid the Iran model, i.e., Saudi Arabia going through a violent revolution and 40 years of hostility toward the U.S., Biden should support Saudi normalization, despite MBS’ murderous despotism.
The dysfunction of the U.S.-Saudi relationship long predates Trump. The most glaring contemporary ignominy was the Obama administration’s support for Saudi Arabia’s war on Yemen, launched with the United Arab Emirates and seven other Arab coalition partners in 2015. The Obama administration backed the Saudi-led war because it hoped the Saudis would temper their objections to the Iran nuclear deal. The gamble did not pay off: The Saudis loudly condemned the deal, and Yemen was and is devastated. Over 2 million children under age 5 are in danger of acute malnutrition in the coming months because of the war and blockade imposed by Saudi Arabia, on top of hundreds of thousands already killed. While internal warring factions, especially the Houthi rebels, share responsibility for Yemen’s misery, two-thirds of civilian casualties are the result of Saudi airstrikes, conducted until recently with U.S. support.
The dysfunction of the U.S.-Saudi relationship also precedes MBS, although his actions have made the incompatibilities harder to overlook. 9/11 was motivated in part by Osama bin Laden’s rage at the stationing of U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia after the first Gulf War. The Saudi king’s status as the guardian of the two holiest sites in Islam makes partnership with the U.S. likewise awkward for the Saudis, especially given their promotion of an intensely conservative and intolerant interpretation of Islam.
Decades of U.S. support, predicated on America’s dependence on Saudi oil, assured the ruling Saudis of their secure position, guaranteed by the might of the U.S. military, regardless of setbacks (such as the 1973 oil embargo). U.S. policy has typically been to reassure Saudi Arabia in hopes of encouraging good behavior, as Biden did earlier this month when he demanded an end to the war in Yemen but consoled Saudi Arabia with promises of defense against Iran. American protection has allowed Saudi Arabia, especially under MBS, to pursue reckless policies that destabilize the region. It was only after the Iranian attack on Saudi oil facilities in September 2019, when the response from the Trump administration was admirably muted, that Saudi Arabia toned down its bluster and quietly reached out to Iran to reduce tensions.
The projection of American military power over the region has traditionally been justified by the need to secure access to Persian Gulf oil; thanks to fracking and other changes in U.S. energy usage, that is no longer necessary. America’s massive military presence in the region now reflects inertia rather than U.S. interests. U.S. security partners in the Middle East, including the UAE and Israel, want the United States to remain the military hegemon in the region to provide backup for their own regional ambitions. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel all want to fight Iran to the last American.
That is not in the U.S.’ interest. As indicated by the airstrikes Biden ordered against an Iranian target in Syria this week, the possibility of escalation is dangerously close. To avoid being dragged into yet another war in the Middle East, Biden should go further than Obama and pursue a policy that punishes the Saudis in the short term with the goal of rewarding them in the long term.
First, he must address the immediate harm caused by Saudi Arabia under MBS’ leadership. Biden must make clear that the crown prince’s reckless aggression abroad will not be tolerated. Saudi Arabia must stop bombing Yemen, lift the blockade and take the lead on paying for reconstruction. (Biden should also commit significant funding to assist Yemen, approaching the approximately $10.7 billion per year in weapons the U.S. agreed to sell Saudi Arabia over the past six years. Requiring those that profit from war to pay for its consequences might help dissuade countries from investing in weapons manufacture as a viable industry.) With Biden’s stated commitment to assist Saudi Arabia to defend itself, MBS may be ready to disengage from his most expensive and disastrous mistake.
Biden also must press MBS to end the brutal repression of his subjects. This month’s release of human rights activist Loujain al-Hathloul, as well as dual U.S.-Saudi citizens Salah al-Haidar and Bader al-Ibrahim, demonstrates that MBS is willing to make certain concessions. Biden should pressure the crown prince to release the many hundreds of Saudis he has imprisoned, including senior members of his own family. MBS is unlikely to oblige, given the threat that individuals like his uncle Ahmed bin Abdulaziz and his cousin Mohammed bin Nayef, the former crown prince, pose to his power. But Biden should insist that activists and clerics such as Salman al-Ouda be freed.
If MBS demonstrates that he is willing to rein in violence abroad and cruelty at home, Biden should then transition to a longer-term strategy: supporting Saudi Arabia in a manner that does not fuel recklessness or repression. He should welcome MBS’ more productive impulses, namely toward diversifying the Saudi economy and reducing societal restrictions.
Bin Salman has laid out a plan for the future of Saudi Arabia called “Vision 2030” that expresses a desire to reduce Saudi dependence on oil exports and to become an “epicenter of trade.” Biden should take him at his word, reduce U.S. military support for the kingdom and support Saudi efforts to diversify economically. This should come as part of a general strategy of reduced military assistance to the entire region and greater emphasis on economic partnerships. The United States cannot claim to support peace as long as it remains the world’s top exporter of weapons.
Many young Saudis support MBS' Vision 2030 for its promises of employment, prosperity, and less stringent gender regulations, which are especially welcome to the generation of Saudi millennials who spent their college years abroad and are eager for their country to be "normal." Americans should remember that the people of Saudi Arabia are not responsible for MBS’ crimes, so the economic and social transitions that MBS has accelerated should be encouraged, however offensive they consider the crown prince’s other actions.
Oil and the U.S. military are what keep Arab dictators in power. The global economy is slowly scaling back its addiction to the fossil fuels that are killing the planet. The U.S. can and should stop propping up Arab dictators with weapons sales and instead help wean their economies off of oil. While many rightly consider engagement with MBS distasteful, for the sake of Saudi and American citizens as well as the global climate, Biden should help MBS achieve his more admirable goals while constraining his malignant inclinations.
