In 2004 I took my regiment, the Black Watch, to Iraq. We were deployed to support the US to defeat al Qaeda in Fallujah.
Thus the Black Watch found itself part of one of the great modern city sieges, but what we experienced is as nothing compared to what looms in Gaza. Fallujah is a city of 300,000 people; Gaza is seven times larger at 2.2 million.
Planning for Gaza is taking place after one of the worst intelligence failures of the modern age, and in which a highly traumatised nation is focused on avenging the aftermath of a pogrom. This tension will cause bad decisions.
An essential feature of Fallujah was a desire to offer safe passage out of the city to civilians. No such exit is possible from Gaza unless Egypt opens her borders. The Fallujah battle was fought in relatively cool conditions. Gaza is still very warm and the likelihood of dehydration and disease is huge.
Fallujah was fought by professional troops. Israel is calling up 300,000 reservists. While it prides itself on its skills in urban warfare, these conscripts will struggle to fight with the necessary sophistication.
Al Qaeda had a short time to get ready, but Hamas has had 17 years in which to prepare. If Hamas can defend with the same sophistication with which it launched the October 7 attack, then the IDF will meet a three-dimensional enemy in high-rise buildings, narrow roads and cellars.
There are several hundred miles of tunnels which will allow Hamas to move fighters with impunity. Strongpoints and ammunition will be stockpiled near to homes, to provoke civilian casualties. The city will be set as a series of ambush points.
Hamas is not only ready for the physical battle, it has thought hard how to exploit the media. Whoever caused the overnight catastrophe at the hospital remains to be seen; either way, Hamas can exploit the information space in a far more sophisticated way than al Qaeda could.
Hamas has some 200 Israeli hostages who are being held in scattered and isolated underground dungeons. Their presence greatly complicates planning.
The only way for the IDF to limit excessive military casualties will be to advance slowly and deliberately, clearing each city block. The scale of destruction will be unprecedented. The slower the operation, the more the humanitarian suffering of the civilian population.
The Fallujah battle was over in four weeks, the Gaza operation may last several months. Far from liquidating Hamas, the IDF may be falling into a well-set trap that might bring in Hezbollah, cause an intifada on the West Bank, and outrage the broader Islamic world. Biden’s visit may be the last chance to insist on restraint, but that may only last until he departs.
