The NHS announcement earlier this month that maternity services in north London could be scaled down due to a “falling birth rate” will surprise no one who has just turned 30 in the capital. These days, you are more likely to be planning your third gap year in Vietnam than attending baby classes.
Primary schools are already beginning to feel the effects. Last week, Hackney Council said that four schools would soon close due to a “significant decline” in the number of children in the borough, blaming the housing crisis and Brexit. This followed official data released in August which showed that the number of babies born in England and Wales dropped to its lowest level in two decades last year. We are witnessing the beginning of a seismic demographic shift in our city — and almost no one is talking about it.
The simple, inarguable truth is that most couples will shun having a child until they can own their own home. For anyone without well-off parents, this is now a pipe dream. The rental market is precarious and many private landlords are unwilling to rent to people with children. And don’t expect housing associations to help. Earlier this year, four-year-old Zainab Hamid was hospitalised after developing breathing problems because of the black mould covering the walls of her family’s Westminster flat. Her father had repeatedly flagged issues to the housing association — to no avail.
If you’ve stumped up enough for a deposit, then say hello to childcare. Figures reported in this newspaper in February showed that the average hourly cost of childcare in London for toddlers had jumped by 13 per cent in four years, reaching £7.30. It's worth repeating: that's per hour. At the same time, nurseries are struggling to stay open due to high rent and staffing costs. Perhaps a grandparent can be strong-armed into helping out, if they haven’t already legged it to Surrey.
Long-term economic and social decline awaits if ministers fail to tackle these issues. Anthony Travers, professor at the London School of Economics, told a newspaper in August that a shrinking working-age population would heap greater tax demands on those who are already in work. It would also put further pressure on services such as the NHS as the median age of the population rises, and increase the need for more migration. I won’t place any bets on a Tory MP arguing we need “higher immigration because couples aren’t having enough babies” in 2045, but stranger things have happened in this country.
If every young Londoner ends up on a conveyor belt that begins in Clapham and ends in Borehamwood, what kind of city will this be in 30 years?
Japan offers a useful case study for how bad this could get. Its population fell by around 800,000 last year, prompting a warning from its Prime Minister Fumio Kishida that the country is “on the brink of not being able to maintain social functions”. The issues cited by would-be Japanese parents are eerily familiar: the exorbitant cost of living, a lack of affordable housing and a complete absence of childcare support.
The solutions are not straightforward but surely begin with strengthening rights for tenants with children and better subsidised childcare. Labour initially talked a good game on the issue, promising to offer universal free childcare for children over nine months old. This pledge was later scrapped in favour of a “major review” of the early years, to be carried out by former Ofsted chief inspector Sir David Bell. Solving this issue will require ambition: Labour shouldn’t dangle the carrot in front of the public only to yank it away.
Beyond the economy, families are part of the fabric of London’s communities and help knit together their past and future. We are already witnessing the transformative effect of gentrification. If every young Londoner ends up on a conveyor belt that begins in Clapham and ends in Borehamwood, what kind of city will this be in 30 years? A puzzle of cycle lanes with no lycra-clad dads to fill them? A miserable collection of empty coffee shops, deprived of local mums enjoying a post-yoga gossip?
As someone who grew up in London, I dread the thought of having to up sticks one day to raise a family. I suspect that hundreds of thousands of young people who call this brilliant city their home feel the same way.
