Democrats in Chicago were ecstatic as Kamala Harris took to the stage last night. She looked radiant — one in the eye for Donald Trump, who claimed recently that he was better looking than her. In his dreams! Harris’s first act was to praise Joe Biden. “Thank you for your historic leadership, for your lifetime of service to our nation, and for all you will continue to do,” she said to roars of approval. “We are forever grateful to you.” With these words, she consigned her boss to the history books.
The party’s relief was palpable. When Biden finally appeared close to midnight, after a parade of attention-hogging party grandees, it was easy to forget he was still president of the United States, the most powerful man on earth. “We love Joe!” delegates chanted and waved hand-outs with the same message, but the applause for the first lady, Jill Biden, and daughter Ashley, who preceded him, was muted. America has seen enough of the Bidens (particularly the naked Hunter, who put in a fully-clothed appearance at the end).
After giving Ashley a tearful bear-hug, Biden opened his address with lengthy praise for his family and made an off-colour granddad joke about Jill still leaving him “speechless and breathless”. The over-the-top thanks for his family seemed pointed, as though they deserved special kudos for sticking with him while more faint-hearted Democrats bailed on his candidacy. Biden went on to glower and shout at delegates for more than 45 minutes, while delivering what he surely intended to be his 2024 acceptance speech.
“You’ve heard me say it before, we’re facing an inflection point in history,” he said. Yes we have, I groaned, somewhat ungenerously. In his telling, Biden nobly ran for president in order to save the “soul of America”. But he sounded furious as he ran through his greatest hits. Inflation was down, the stock market up, infrastructure was booming, the US had the greatest economy in the world, he yelled. “Why weren’t we more grateful?” went unsaid, but implied. After all, he won “81 million votes” and beat Donald Trump in 2020. Will his vice-president be able to say the same in 77 days?
The trouble is, Trump has been running for re-election since 2020. The novelty factor is gone
Now and then, Biden gave a shout-out to the achievements of “Kamala and I”, but the speech was all about him, not her. He became a lot more effusive in what sounded like a bolted-on segment towards the end. “She will be a president we will all be proud of,” Biden concluded. But also: “America, I gave my best to you.” Had we reciprocated? Thank you, Joe, the crowd responded loyally. Thank you and good night. It was time for bed.
A few Biden aides who have been carping about the “coup” against him were put in their place yesterday by Nancy Pelosi, the prime knifer and former House speaker. “If they’re upset, I’m sorry for them,” she said. “The rest of the country is happy.” Pelosi is right. The Democrats are united in support of Harris. And not just them. Independents and “double haters” who disliked having to choose between 81-year-old Biden and 78-year-old Trump are rallying to Harris. Third-party candidates, such as Robert F Kennedy Jr, are being squeezed.
According to the polling website, 538, Harris has a 2.6 point average lead over Trump. A post-convention bounce could consolidate her gains and bring her close to victory. But a good start can evaporate overnight. Remember Cleggmania in the 2010 British general election? The Liberal Democrats topped the polls after a strong debate performance by Nick Clegg, only to plummet to earth again.
To Trump’s bemusement, Harris is beating him at his own game — crowd size and enthusiasm. The Democratic national convention is a riot of red, white and blue colours, with patriotic chants of “USA, USA” and “When we fight, we win,” the martial slogan Harris has made her own. Wasn’t fighting talk supposed to be Trump’s speciality?
In contrast, Trump’s rallies have become, well, boring. The trouble is he has been running for re-election since 2020. The novelty factor is gone. I went to see him perform last Saturday at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Wilkes Barre, Pennsylvania. The crowd was not only smaller than it was in 2022 (when I was also there), but restless. Not that you will hear Trump admit it. He claimed on Truth Social that, contrary to claims by “comrade” Kamala, “We had to turn away 11,500 people”.
Hmm, that’s odd, because I was one of the last people inside. Everybody got in with room to spare. One closed-off section was discreetly hidden by a couple of giant American flags and there were rows of empty seats behind the television cameras. The audience, though loyal, seemed somewhat deflated.
On Newsmax, a Right-wing television station, the presenter Tom Basile mused that Trump needed to reinvent himself and go on a charm offensive by talking about his grandchildren, golf game and Christian faith. I can’t imagine this is advice Trump will take.
More plausibly, a Republican source told Vanity Fair that Trump might be suffering from post-traumatic stress following last month’s assassination attempt. “He’s been watching that seven-second clip of how close he was to getting shot in the head over and over again,” the source said. “He may actually legitimately have PTSD.”
Harris narrowly lags behind Trump in blue-collar Pennsylvania and continues to trail him in Georgia
Arguably, however, Trump is still winning, despite Harris’s overall polling lead. Crowd size isn’t everything. Biden won in 2020 after campaigning from his basement. Conversely, Hillary Clinton secured nearly three million more votes than Trump in 2016 and lost the electoral college by 306 to 232, practically a landslide. She gave a much better speech than Biden, by the way. “Something is happening in America. You can feel it,” Clinton said. Yet she knows better than anyone that Harris could share her fate.
Harris has brilliantly consolidated the Democratic coalition of women, minority and young voters that had frayed under Biden, but has yet to win over the largely white, male working class. She narrowly lags behind Trump in blue-collar Pennsylvania. She also continues to trail him in Georgia. Without these two states, with 35 electoral college votes between them, victory will be nearly impossible to achieve.
There are other vulnerabilities. One of Harris’s best polls this week from ABC News/Washington Post gave her a five-point lead over Trump (50 per cent to 45 per cent), but a nine-point deficit on who is most trusted to handle the economy and a 10-point deficit on the issue of immigration. The vibes are good, but the election is still Trump’s to lose.
