Have you heard the one about Private Pike and the MoD? It was the nickname given to Gavin Williamson when he was defence secretary in the Theresa May government. Allies of the then-chancellor Philip Hammond briefed the Dad’s Army jibe to the press in return for the young Williamson allegedly stirring up a backbench rebellion on defence spending. Williamson was pushing for billions more in funding for the armed forces — but No 10 and No 11 were unimpressed as they had other plans for the cash.
It’s precisely this scenario that Rishi Sunak is trying to avoid in the ministerial shake-up he is planning for when MPs return in the autumn. Reshuffles are hard to predict and rarely go to plan — just look at all the contradictory speculation that tends to fill the papers in the months leading up to one. But one thing is certain: he needs a new defence secretary. Last month, Ben Wallace pre-announced his resignation — saying he would leave the Cabinet at the next reshuffle as part of a phased exit from politics (he is stepping down as an MP at the next election).
The appointment is important electorally. The next election will take place against the backdrop of the Ukraine war. If the contest takes place in the autumn — October or November — the campaign will run in parallel to the US presidential election. Should the Republican nominee — perhaps Donald Trump — appear to be going cold on providing military support for Ukraine, the backdrop to the UK election could be one in which there is much fear in Europe and beyond about what comes next.
Those suddenly posting pictures of themselves with the army are seen to be on manoeuvres
That means the party most trusted on defence and Ukraine could have the edge. For the Tories, it is one of the few areas on which the polling is fairly positive. In the latest Ipsos political monitor, responding to the Russian invasion of Ukraine was the only policy area where voters thought that Labour would do worse than the Tories. Ten per cent said Labour would do better but 21 per cent said Sir Keir Starmer’s party would do worse — 57 per cent said it would be about the same. One minister questions why Sunak doesn’t talk more about defence. “Defence should have been in the five priorities,” a senior minister says. “It’s one area where we can lead.”
Wallace — who also tops the Conservative Home cabinet league table and is a favourite of the Tory grassroots — leaves big shoes to fill. Runners and riders lists tend to include Tom Tugendhat, current defence minister James Heappey, Penny Mordaunt and Chief Secretary to the Treasury John Glen. Those suddenly posting pictures of themselves with the army or praising the forces are seen to be on manoeuvres. But what is really going to get someone the plum job is no social media charm offensive but whether they can be trusted to hold the line on spending.
During the Tory leadership contest, Sunak refused to pledge big on defence spending. Liz Truss’s promise to spend three per cent of GDP on defence by 2030 saw her clinch Wallace’s endorsement. But when her premiership blew up and Sunak came in, he watered it down. He has since announced a £5 billion increase in military spending and pledged to boost funding to 2.5 per cent of GDP in the long term. It’s also the case that the UK’s own military supplies are depleted — with much going to Ukraine. Spending was a cause of friction between Wallace and Sunak.
It means whoever takes on the role will have tough decisions to make. What government aides want to avoid is someone who chooses to grapple with that rather than make a crusade of their own.
It means trust will be valued over charisma. The more charismatic of the contenders include Mordaunt, the current leader of the house who had a brief spell in the Ministry of Defence. She would be a popular appointment with voters and the party but some allies of Sunak remain sceptical of her after she refused to stand aside in the Tory leadership contest — attempting (and failing) to take the second contest of last year to the membership. On the opposite end of the scale to Mordaunt is Glen. A long time supporter of Sunak, he is seen as trustworthy and his current role in the Treasury means he is likely to be sympathetic to the strains on the public purse. However, his appointment would lead to allegations of “jobs for the boys” with one MP warning in advance that it would be “underwhelming”.
Sunak must try to find a middle ground — a team player but one who will also make a mark. Those auditioning for the role best leave spending demands at the door.
