Iran, the United States and Israel are still teetering on the edge of a wider regional war across the Middle East as Tehran continues to threaten vengeance for the Israeli strike on their mission in Damascus that killed two of its top generals.
US president Joe Biden, for one, is convinced that Iran is threatening a significant attack on Israel. His offer of “ironclad support” is a new benchmark in the tangled diplomacy of the US.
Iran has long been centre stage in the crisis that blew up after the October 7 massacre of Israelis. It has been arming and advising the Hamas forces still fighting a bloody and nihilistic rearguard action under Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif inside Gaza.
It is feeding with weapons, giving advice and training the Houthi forces attacking shipping in the Red and Arabian seas with increasing sophistication. It is firing up the forces of Hezbollah, firing hundreds of rockets a week into northern Israel. Brigadier-General Mohammed Reza Zahedi, the principal target in the April 1 strike in Damascus, ran co-ordination with Hezbollah and the insurgents across Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.
The US has make it plain that it would be bound to come to Israel’s aid if there was a direct attack
The US has been involved in intensive back-channel contacts with the military and civilian leadership in Tehran, making it plain that the US would be bound to come to Israel’s aid if there was a direct attack.
“All roads lead to Tehran,” Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said yesterday, “in their use of proxies, training and equipment”.
But this could be both a strength and weakness, for Iran could overstretch, being tested on three, four or five fronts. They are caught up with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, in their arm’s length backing of Hamas in Gaza, in an increasing demand to back the Houthis, in confrontations in the Caucasus with Azerbaijan, and backing Russia in Ukraine.
A direct attack might be counter-productive. It would make Israel less isolated and bring it support from Europe as well as America.
Perhaps believing revenge is a dish best served cold, Tehran may opt for the long game — which is still worrying.
