This isn't going to be one of those newsletters that opens with a Tony Blair reference, a convoluted 1990s pop culture storyline or a self-deprecating yet witty personal anecdote. We can leave those at home. Instead, allow me to regurgitate three things the godfather of psephology, Sir John Curtice, said this morning, in the wake of Labour's double by-election victories:
1. They confirm the Tories are, to use Sir John's overly professorial language, "in deep, deep electoral trouble". The 21-point fall in the Conservatives’ support in Kingswood is in line with national opinion polls, while the 38-point drop in Wellingborough is the largest the party has suffered in a post-war by-election.
2. The prime minister's woes are no longer merely confined to the Labour Party. For months, Reform UK has been securing punchy numbers in the polls, but this was not reflected in by-elections. No longer. Reform took 10 per cent of the vote in Kingswood and 13 per cent in Wellingborough. When you start losing support both to your left and your right (see: the history of the Labour Party), you have a serious problem.
3. Labour. Despite all the talk of this being one of the worst weeks of Keir Starmer's leadership, the party has swept all before it. Both swings achieved were above that required for an overall majority. The party is winning by-elections at a rate reminiscent of the 1992-7 parliament, which culminated in a Labour landslide.
Clearly, these results heap further pressure on Rishi Sunak and will no doubt embolden his internal political rivals. That's because last night wasn't a YouGov poll paid for by a hitherto unknown Conservative group with zero online presence and a closed membership intended to scare backbenchers and damage the leader. It was ordinary voters casting actual ballots.
Skipping over the impending car crash that is the Rochdale by-election, the next big electoral showdown will be the local elections on 2 May. These could prove even more catastrophic for the Tories, for reasons of simple arithmetic and the passage of time.
The 2024 local elections are essentially a re-run of the seats last contested 2021, delayed by a year due to the pandemic. Cast your mind back to 6 May 2021 (you were three years younger if nothing else) and the Tories under Boris Johnson were riding high, thanks in part to the vaccine bounce. Meanwhile, it was Starmer in crisis, losing the Hartlepool by-election and failing to demote his deputy, Angela Rayner. Since then, one or two things have happened including but not limited to: Partygate, Liz Truss and a recession.
The Tories secured 36 per cent of the vote in 2021 on an 8-point swing, winning 235 seats and taking control of a further 13 councils. Labour, on the other hand, lost 327 councillors and control of eight councils. A repeat of last year's locals, in which the Conservatives lost more than 1,000 council seats, would further rock Sunak's unsteady premiership.
Plenty of agitators will take one look at last night's results and in particular the Reform vote haul and double down on the need for the Tories to pivot to the right. The risks of such a move are multifold, but I'll restrain myself to two. First, that by shifting right the party would likely alienate even more voters. And second, in purely practical terms, it is far more efficient for the Conservatives to win votes off Labour (and vice-versa) because Tory/Labour switchers are inherently worth double.
For whatever reason, this argument rarely seems to persuade the ideologues in either party.
In the comment pages, Melanie McDonagh suggests Britain has stopped building beautiful and the carbuncle known as the South Bank Slab is a new London low. On the flip side, Nancy Durrant defends the capital's skyline against a drive-by shooting from the New York Times. While Prudence Ivey says that not everyone opposing new housing is a Nimby.
And finally, from a Franco-Chinese collaboration supper to the latest young performing talent in Hackney, Mike Daw has everything to eat, see and do in London this weekend.
