Like an unwanted swallow out of season, the signs are that much of the world is entering a demographic winter with Britain, North America and Europe in the lead.
While the headlines, and also the village of Westminster and Whitehall, have been obsessed by the flows of migrants in the hundreds of thousands, little attention has been given to the dynamic of declining human fertility, and rapidly ageing native populations.
One of the exceptions is Ross Douthat, the outstanding conservative commentator of the New York Times. Last year he wrote that demographic “decadence” should be taken as seriously as climate change; and its impact could be more devastating.
Populations should not just be measured in net growth, and more attention should focus on natality and fertility rates. The accepted norm is that the average woman, or child-rearing couple, should bring 2.1 children into the world. Fall below that level and the nation declines.
Today the lowest fertility or birth rates are recorded in Monaco, Italy and Japan — the latter being the fastest ageing developed countries in the world. Italy averages a fertility rate of about 1.28, something its prime minister Giorgia Meloni is worried about. This means a population of around 60 million in 2020 is predicted to shrink below 47 million by 2050. Britain fares better, but not much. The Office for National Statistics reported that by 2050 the UK population could increase by six million to around 70 million — but the uptick will be entirely down to immigration.
Already there are signs of democratic winter in the structure of the workforce. Roughly 2.7 million will disappear from the national labour force by 2030, and not be replaced. By then nearly a third of all those in work will be over 50.
Gaps and cracks are already emerging. Young people are not coming in to replace those going into retirement for a complex of reasons — among them the decline in human fertility, the cost of raising large families, or families at all. This accounts, in part, for the crisis in recruiting for the armed services and other public agencies. All three services have seen more leaving the colours than joining. Senior officers I have spoken to barely seemed to recognise the dynamic of demographic winter.
The ageing of populations, and birth rate decline, drives a major shift in geopolitics
The ageing of populations, and birth rate decline, drives a major shift in geopolitics, and not least the fortunes of war in Ukraine, and the balance of power across Asia and Africa. For Ukraine the prospect is grim. It has a fertility rate of around 1.4. About nine million of its 42 million population in 2022 has been uprooted with at least six million going abroad. The average age of an infantry soldier on the frontline is now around 45.
President Volodymyr Zelensky wants to mobilise 500,000 more for fighting and manning the key defence industries and security infrastructure. It will be hard to pull off, and almost impossible to repeat. The outlook for Vladimir Putin’s great war of Russian expansion isn’t much better. Russia’s population of 143 million is declining, and the fertility rate of 1.5 is little better than that of Ukraine. The workforce is ageing, life expectancy and health declining, and Putin’s nominal realm is a vast territory crossing 11 time zones. There are limits to the numbers he can mobilise for Ukraine, let alone any other fantastical adventures he seems to have in mind.
This year China recorded a decline in population for the first time since the Great Leap Forward 60 years ago. Decline has come 10 years before most expected — with the prospect that China’s present 1.4 billion population could shrink to below 800 million by 2100. The old prophecy of China growing old before growing rich has come back to haunt it. Going in the other direction are the nations of Africa, reaching into parts of Asia. Today Chad, Niger and Nigeria record some of the highest fertility rates; 6.7 per mother in the case of Chad. Lately, however, the projection that the world population will reach 11 billion in 2100 is in doubt. By the turn of the century the human population may well have begun a steady decline.
The whole matter of demographic disruption was rehearsed in a brilliant discussion at the Anglo-Italian seminar this month in Venice, a venue which is the epitome of elegant and thought-provoking human imagination, and now decline. Professor Matteo Polistina of the Ambrosetti Institute explained how AI and intelligent migration could only partly make up for the loss of 2.7 million from the Italian workforce over the next 15 years. “AI can do a lot, but not everything. Migration is needed — but not focused on the menial jobs as they, too, will decline with technology. We need migrants who are digitally literate, smart and can create for the future, especially in small innovative enterprises.”
Like Douthat, Professor Polistina believes understanding the change in demographics weather is urgent; too little attention is being given to it across the board. “There is no leading voice in his field. We have to work out how to think about it — in terms of governance, market management, and the governance of AI. There is a strange lack of passion about the future. We can, and must, change this.”
