Donald Trump is the undisputed master and commander of the popular vote, the electoral college and congress. Americans are unexpectedly at ease with the nation’s verdict. The rows and cacophony of voices over politics have died down. The late night show host Jon Stewart delivered the best explanation for this eerie calm. He had wondered before polling day, “‘What measure of intimidation and underhanded shenaniganry will this man use to worm his way back into the Oval Office?’ And, as it turned out, he used our electoral system as it was designed.”
Democratic strongholds such as San Francisco and New York swung towards Trump. So did women, Latinos, black voters and native Americans. “We want to make Native America great!” said Myron Lizer, a former leader of the Navajo nation. “We want to be invited to the American dream.” But this remarkable consensus does not mean normal service in America is about to resume. At 78, Trump is determined to govern at a pace and the Great Accomodation to his wishes has begun. As president-elect, he is already bending domestic and foreign policy to his will, while the Democrats look on helplessly.
The satirical magazine The Onion joked that a cross between the musical Hamilton and hipster television series Girls might hold the key to the left’s revival. “We’re hoping to make up the ground we lost with white-working class voters . . . with a new 10-part hip-hop musical set in rural Wisconsin featuring a down-on-her-luck manufacturing worker played by Lena Dunham,” it chirruped.
Seriously, though, it’s not just that the opposition lacks answers to Trump. The bigger, more existential question for the Democrats is: what if most US voters did in fact know what was in their best interests? What if the new America First administration proves to be a success?
Domestically, immigration presents a potentially easy win for Trump. I saw at a Rio Grande crossing in spring 2021 how migrants from Latin America had decided to make the long trek north as soon as Joe Biden won the 2020 election. It took people several arduous months to reach the Texan border and then their numbers exploded. “I’m here because of Biden,” they explained matter-of-factly.
Deterrence is working
There is already evidence of a reverse Trump effect following his threat of mass deportations. Deterrence is working. A few days ago, the New York Times interviewed Daniel Garcia, a Venezuelan delivery worker in Colombia who had been saving up for the $2500 journey. “It is a very high investment,” he reflected. “I prefer not to risk it.”
There are roughly 1.35 million illegal immigrants in the US who have already been deemed liable for deportation, including criminals. What has been lacking is the will to enforce the law. Trump’s new “border czar” Tom Homan, a bruiser who served as head of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the first Trump administration, is straight out of central casting. He looks “very nasty, he looks very mean,” Trump said approvingly.
Homan has already warned governors to “get out the hell out of the way”. The same goes for mayors of so-called sanctuary cities. “We’re coming,” he said. While the federal workforce will be slashed, in keeping with Elon Musk’s directives, the number of border agents will increase. Trump has promised there will be “no price tag” for Homan’s efforts. Providing back-up will be the puppy-slaying governor of South Dakota, Kristi Noem, now incoming head of homeland security, and fish-eyed ideologue Stephen Miller as deputy White House chief of staff.
It is no surprise that Trump has made these appointments a priority. Cracking down on illegal immigration is his most popular policy. These measures will likely appeal almost as much to New York city dwellers, whose hotels are jammed with people waiting for asylum status that will never come, as to rural Republican voters. In the past decade of Democratic rule, New York has deteriorated. San Francisco threw out its mayor last week in favour of a wealthy CEO. How long before other “blue” cities follow suit?
Will Trump be able to wreak revenge on his enemies, such as the Justice department?
Abroad, resistance to Trump is melting in the capitals of Europe, Asia and the Middle East. So Trump is transactional, you say? Let’s see what we can offer him in terms of increased military spending (Nato countries), US weapons purchases (Taiwan) and the eviction of Hamas leaders (Qatar). Vladimir Putin is playing hardball over Ukraine, but by day one of Trump’s presidency the outline of a peace plan may well be apparent. With Michael Waltz as national security adviser and Marco Rubio as the probable secretary of state, perhaps it won’t mean total capitulation to Russian interests.
By the time Trump gets his feet back under the Resolute desk in the Oval office and starts issuing executive orders, such as overturning Biden’s green energy policies, he will barely need to be a dictator for “one day”, as promised. Everything will already be going his way. Will he be able to wreak revenge on his enemies, such as the Justice department? Plenty of lawyers there are ready to hand in their resignations voluntarily. What about the FBI? Director Christopher Wray may also resign rather than wait to be fired by Trump.
It is worth remembering that Wray was appointed by Trump in 2017 but proved more faithful to the law than to his master’s voice. Will new appointees such as “ice-baby” Susie Wiles, the first woman to become White House chief of staff, remain in favour? She was a mainstream Republican before masterminding Trump’s election campaign. And will the hyperactive Musk outlast his welcome if he keeps trying to boss the big man around?
But Trump has a habit of getting his own way. Right now he is hoping to impose his own choice of Senate leader, Rick Scott, on recalcitrant Republican grandees. Their resistance turned to jelly when they had the chance to impeach Trump for his behaviour during the January 6 riot. Perhaps they will grow a spine, but not indefinitely. The House of Representatives has been fully captured by Maga. One of their number, Elise Stefanik, used to be a centre-right Republican but has been rewarded with the plum US ambassadorship to the UN in return for her Trumpification.
Only one lone gunslinger is standing his ground like Gary Cooper in High Noon. Jay Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, himself appointed by Trump in 2018, is determined to safeguard the independence of the Fed. Asked whether he would resign if Trump asked him to, he gave a one-word reply. “No.”
In Powell’s case, Trump appears willing to back off from a fight. He has reportedly indicated that Powell can stay, but it’s not much of a sacrifice. Powell’s term expires in 2026. Having steered the US back to full employment, low inflation (now 2.4%) and a record stock market in time for Trump’s return to power, it is obvious who is going to claim the credit for economic success.
Sarah Baxter is director of the Marie Colvin Center for International Reporting and a contributing editor to the London Standard
