The Omicron wave in Wales has clearly peaked and is rapidly falling, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics.
The infection rate from the Office for National Statistics is based on random sampling of the population and is not affected by changes to testing rules - meaning it is now the most reliable guide to the spread of Covid in the UK.
The latest figures for the week to January 12 show almost one in 25 people had Covid in Wales in the last week- lower than in England, Scotland or Northern Ireland. The ONS estimated that 169,100 people in Wales, equivalent to one in 20, had Covid in the previous week.
Read more: Did Mark Drakeford's strict Covid rules in Wales over the New Year make any difference?
The headlines from the latest statistical output, which is based on swabs collected from randomly selected households, indicate the percentage of people testing positive for Covid increased rapidly in the run-up to Christmas, but slowed up during the first week of January and is now dropping dramatically.
In the week up to January 12, the percentage of people testing positive for Covid was highest in the age two to school year six group, with 8.01% estimated to have caught Covid. Cases in the age 50-69 age groups are half that with 4.08% estimated to have caught Covid in the same period.
The ONS defines the period from December 20, 2021 as the "Omicron-dominant period". Looking at the daily estimates in Wales from the beginning of December, it's clear to see that the rapid rise in the run up to Christmas and over the New Year has begun to slow down and has reached a plateau. The next data release on Thursday will give a better indication of what has happened in the week up to January 12.
Looking at how Wales compares to England, both nations experienced a similar surge in Covid infections over Christmas and New Year. It's widely thought that the ONS data is a better way to compare case rates between the UK nations as it bypasses the different way England and Wales record data. For example Wales counts reinfections, while England does not. And Wales only uses a positive PCR test to record positive cases in the daily update while England includes LFT results.
The transmissibility of the Omicron variant has driven up infection rates in the last two months. During the Omicron-dominant period, the risk of reinfection was 16 times higher compared with the seven-month period from May 17 to December 19, 2021 when Delta was the main variant, the ONS said.
Even so, people who've been vaccinated are all less likely to test positive than people who've still not had their jabs. During the six months from July 2, 2020 to January 9, 2022, people who were unvaccinated were twice as likely to be reinfected than people who had their second vaccine 14 to 89 days ago, the latest ONS analysis suggested.
And it is hardly surprising that people living in the UK in rural towns and villages are less likely to have contracted Covid in the second half of December when compared to major urban areas. In Wales, one in 25 people tested positive for Covid-19 in Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion in the period between December 18 and January 6, compared to one in 15 in Bridgend, RCT and Merthyr Tydfil.
The data also shows that in December 2021, people with Omicron compatible infections were much less likely to report loss of taste or smell compared to those with Delta compatible infections. While people working in the armed forces and hospitality sectors were the most likely to have tested positive for Covid-19 during the Omicron-dominant period.
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