Confidence is a very multi-faceted word, if you think about it.
It can be an adjective describing someone who’s assured in their value and abilities. It can also refer to “keeping confidence,” the idea of holding someone’s trust or keeping something private. Confidence can describe a general feeling of certainty, and there are also confidence (con) men, who create trust, only to exploit it.
I’ve been thinking about the sort of prismatic quality of the word as I’ve been looking through the results of Semaphore’s 17th annual confidence survey of private equity, venture capital, hedge fund, and other professionals. (Semaphore is a firm that takes over troubled private equity, venture capital, and hedge funds on behalf of limited partners.)
In terms of “sense of certainty,” it’s not a rousingly confident time for dealmakers assessing the world around them. At least—according to this survey with 910 respondents across the private markets—there’s limited confidence in the wider political and economic landscapes; and for many respondents, in their ability to even form an opinion at all. (In the responses below, neutral responses make up the difference between those who are and who are not confident.)
Some key results on how dealmakers are thinking about the broader climate:
– 8% of dealmakers said they had confidence in Congress, versus 64% who said said they are not confident
– 14% of dealmakers expressed confidence in Trump’s economic team, compared to 52% who said they are not confident
– 38% of dealmakers said they’re confident about the U.S. economy, while 25% were not confident
– 8% of survey respondents said that they’re confident in the international economy, while 29% said they’re not confident
Here are some of the specific things respondents had to say:
Great opportunities in the U.S. and select regions like the Middle East across the value chain. Strong U.S. economic indicators and low unemployment. Local high demand for services and consumables.
You quoted me and the Beatles last year. The economy got better and better, but I’m not sure our nation will survive long enough for me to enjoy it!
I think our industry is stable because it's regulated and reputations matter. I'm wary of Trump economic and foreign policies driving inflation, including pushing for rate cuts.
I absolutely think AI needs to be seriously managed—it’s not the answer for everything.
This year’s survey also provides a useful temperature check on some hot-button issues that have become even hotter in the first few weeks of the Trump administration.
Take the carried interest tax “loophole,” beloved by VCs, PE, and hedge fund managers, and which Trump unexpectedly flagged as one of his targets for tax reform. While the survey was conducted before Trump’s surprise announcement on carried interest on Thursday, the results give a sense of where many industry insiders stand on the issue:
– 49% of dealmakers said that favorable tax treatment of carried interest income should be eliminated, while 51% say it shouldn’t be.
As companies roll back DEI policies, a decisive majority of dealmakers appear to be believe that the root issues behind DEI efforts remain a problem:
– 72% of dealmakers said yes, that “sexual misconduct, harassment and gender bias [are] a problem in our industry,” while 28% said no.
– 60% of dealmakers said yes, “structural racism [is] an inherent problem in our industry,” while 40% said no.
And, of course, there’s “first buddy” Elon Musk:
– 81% of dealmakers said yes, “Elon Musk [has] undue influence on American domestic and foreign policy,” while 9% say no.
ICYMI…Speaking of Musk, the world's richest man has reportedly led a group of investors in a $97 billion bid for OpenAI—which was promptly and publicly rejected by Sam Altman on X. We'll no doubt be reading more about this is-it-real-or-is-it-troll bid in the days ahead, but in the meantime you can read up on the first chapter here.
See you tomorrow,
Allie Garfinkle
X: @agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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