One Nation will target moderate Liberal MPs by directing voters not to preference them in key seats, in part to punish a decision to preference Jacqui Lambie above the minor party.
Guardian Australia understands that One Nation will put Liberal Trent Zimmerman last on its how-to-vote cards in North Sydney, with moderates Bridget Archer, and Tim Wilson also potential targets of the minor party.
One Nation will not necessarily direct preferences to Labor in all seats but is weighing strategies, including directing preferences anywhere but to the Liberals or running split tickets that divide preferences evenly between Liberal and Labor.
One Nation is still in negotiations with the Liberals attempting to overturn a decision to preference the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) above One Nation in Tasmania; and even attempting to secure preferencing over Labor in some states.
One Nation fears the decision will boost JLN’s Tammy Tyrrell ahead of its candidate, Steve Mav, in the bid for a Tasmanian Senate seat.
The Australian first reported the Tasmanian Senate fight, claiming that the Liberals will also preference the United Australia Party and Liberal Democrats ahead of One Nation in the state.
One Nation leader, Pauline Hanson, reportedly said the decision is “shocking” because JLN is a party of the “green-left”.
“The Liberals will do whatever it takes to save their marginal Tasmanian seats, Braddon and Bass,” she reportedly said. “But Tasmanian voters won’t be fooled and will very likely kick the Liberals out anyway. The Liberals stand for nothing.
“Labor is rotten to the core but the Liberals are just as bad because they only pretend to fight for conservative Australian values. Their hypocritical deal with JLN is the last nail in the Morrison government’s coffin.”
Despite the fierce rhetoric, One Nation is also set to oppose a number of Labor-left MPs. Early voting starts on 9 May, just under two weeks from election day (21 May).
Archer holds the seat of Bass by just 0.4%. In neighbouring Braddon, Liberal Gavin Pearce has a 3.1% margin but will be assisted by One Nation preferences due to his conservative record.
In February, Archer and Zimmerman led a five-MP revolt, crossing the floor to pass amendments to the Sex Discrimination Act to protect LGBTQ+ students, which eventually caused the government to shelve its own religious discrimination bill.
The Australian Christian Lobby is also targeting Archer and Zimmerman along with fellow MPs Fiona Martin, Katie Allen and Dave Sharma over their votes on the amendment.
The strength of the One Nation vote in North Sydney and Goldstein is untested, given the minor party did not run at the last election, but the preference decision could spell trouble for Archer in the fickle seat of Bass, which has changed hands at the last four elections.
