Editors’ note, March 31, 11:38 a.m. ET: This story has been updated with a new question about the Dodgers.
Hang in there, baseball fans. After a long offseason that for a while seemed as if it could stretch into the summer, we’re just one week away from Opening Day. The frenzy of trades and signings that unfolded after the lockout ended is in the rearview window. But every team is still facing some measure of uncertainty. The World Series champion Braves don’t seem invincible after winning just 88 games last year, and this generation’s dominant team, the Dodgers, isn’t emitting quite the same invincible aura it has in years past.
To that end, we’ve zeroed in on the biggest question for each team in 2022. Each club has its own definition of success this year—some are in win-now mode, while others remain in a rebuilding phase—but finding an answer to their respective key question will factor greatly on whether or not they reach their goals.
Nick Selbe handled the American League teams yesterday. Now it’s the National League’s turn.
NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Can Matt Olson fill Freddie Freeman’s shoes?
Rather than re-sign the face of their franchise, who ended up joining the rival Dodgers for six years and $162 million, the reigning World Series champions traded four top prospects for Olson—then extended him for eight years and $168 million. The former A’s first baseman is four years younger than Freeman and possesses more power, but also has a lower floor due to his inferior contact skills. Whether Alex Anthopoulos’s ruthless reallocation of funds works out in 2022 will likely decide the NL East race.
LAWS: Matt Olson’s Extension Signals a New Era for Braves
Jasen Vinlove/USA TODAY Sports
Miami Marlins
Will the offseason additions to the offense produce?
Last offseason, Miami’s largest expenditure on the free agent market amounted to $5 million for Adam Duvall. The Marlins may not have spent over the winter as much as Derek Jeter would have liked, but they’re clearly ready to take a step forward after trading for ex-Pirates catcher Jacob Stallings and signing 2021 World Series MVP Jorge Soler (three years, $36 million) and Avisail Garcia (four years, $53 million), who led the Brewers with 29 home runs last season. Whether those guys can help improve an offense that ranked 29th with a .670 OPS last season will determine if the Fish can make their second surprise playoff appearance in three years.
VERDUCCI: Derek Jeter Is a Player Again
New York Mets
Will Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer continue to age gracefully?
Steve Cohen has spent his first two offseasons as Mets owner flexing his financial muscle to the point that the new collective bargaining agreement contains a “Cohen tax” to contain such prolific spending. The result is a lineup and pitching staff flush with depth. But for the Mets to get where they want to go, the two starters atop their rotation with a combined six Cy Young awards will have to stay healthy and continue to defy the age curve of most pitchers.
SELBE: Mets Flex Their Financial Might on Black Friday
Philadelphia Phillies
Has Philadelphia finally fixed its bullpen?
After the Phillies endured a historically poor effort from its reliever corps in 2020, the unit improved to a 4.60 ERA (25th in MLB) last season. But that’s still not good enough in the modern game, when bullpens are relied upon more than ever; none of last year’s 10 playoff teams ranked worse than 15th in bullpen ERA. Corey Knebel, Jeurys Familia and Brad Hand will need to stabilize the back end of games for Philadelphia to snap the NL’s longest playoff drought.
Washington Nationals
Will Juan Soto win MVP and/or sign an extension?
Stop us if you’ve heard this before: one of baseball’s generational talents is stuck on a team with little hope of competing for a championship anytime soon. At least Juan Soto won a title with Washington in 2019, because the short-term outlook in D.C. is bleak. But the 23-year-old could bring some joy to Nationals Park this year by winning the sport’s most important piece of individual hardware—or even more importantly, by committing to stay in the nation’s capital well into his 30s. Since he’s a Scott Boras client, we have a feeling Nationals fans may have to settle on hoping for the former.
NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Are the corner infielders late bloomers or flashes in the pan?
First baseman Frank Schwindel, 29, and third baseman Patrick Wisdom, 30, both spent most of their 20s toiling in the minors. But they did a pretty good job of helping Cubs fans forget about Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant after the franchise icons were dealt at the trade deadline. Wisdom overcame a whopping 40% strikeout rate to lead the Cubs and all NL rookies with 29 homers last year, even breaking Kris Bryant’s franchise rookie home run record. Schwindel, meanwhile, won the NL’s Rookie of the Month award in both August and September with an OPS approaching 1.000 after being claimed off waivers from Oakland in July. If they can replicate last season’s success, Chicago’s road back to the playoffs becomes a lot shorter.
Five-Tool Newsletter: The Cubs Are Better Than You Think
Kamil Krzaczynski/USA TODAY Sports
Cincinnati Reds
Can Luis Castillo and Mike Moustakas rebuild their trade value?
It’s sad it’s come to this for Cincinnati, who only have a two-game sweep in 2020’s shortened wild-card round to show for pushing in their chips for Moustakas, Trevor Bauer, Sonny Gray and Nick Castellanos between 2019–20. Even if Castillo and Moustakas do start to resemble their old selves, given how Reds GM Nick Krall was absolutely fleeced for Gray and Jesse Winker this offseason, it’s hard to imagine he’ll fully capitalize on the last two remaining veteran trade chips on their roster (assuming Joey Votto will retire as a Red) ahead of what could be a long rebuild.
Milwaukee Brewers
Is Christian Yelich’s MVP form gone forever?
After winning the 2018 NL MVP and finishing as runner-up in 2019, Yelich has regressed to record his two worst offensive seasons over the last two years. The 30-year-old battled a back injury last year, which Milwaukee must hope was the root of his issues. The Brewers’ lackluster offense was exposed in their NLDS loss to Atlanta in October, and the club sorely needs Yelich, who’s set to earn $26 million through 2028, to at least approach his past heights to give the Crew a shot at winning their first World Series.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Will Bryan Reynolds be on Pittsburgh’s next playoff team?
The outfielder, the headlining return from the Giants for Andrew McCutchen in January 2018, could end up being the next McCutchen for Pittsburgh (in production if not cultural impact). He’s under team control through 2025 and started in last summer’s All-Star Game en route to a 6.0 WAR season. But the Pirates are a long way off from contending, and if Reynolds is traded soon, he could help Pittsburgh acquire the last wave of prospects to push it over the top in a few years.
St. Louis Cardinals
Can anyone run away with the starting shortstop and second base jobs?
Paul DeJong, whose bat has progressively worsened since his promising 2017 debut, lost the shortstop gig late last summer to Edmundo Sosa but is being given one last shot to prove himself. Tommy Edman, the sort of scrappy, fundamentally sound player often concocted in the Cardinals Devil Magic Factory, will try to hold off top prospect Nolan Gorman at the keystone. If any combination of those four can settle the middle infield in St. Louis, the Redbirds could win the NL Central for just the second time in the last seven years.
NL WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks
Can Zac Gallen re-emerge as a Cy Young vote-getter?
Gallen finished in the top 10 of NL Cy Young voting in the shortened 2020 season, recording a 2.75 ERA, but the underlying metrics indicated he was a little lucky. In 2021, after he suffered a broken right forearm while hitting in spring training, his walk, hit and home run rates all crept up, resulting in a 4.30 ERA and leaving Gallen as a league-average starter. The former third-round pick will be counted on to anchor Arizona’s rotation over the next few years, and he could eventually be dealt before the Diamondbacks return to the postseason. Just how valuable he is over that period could prove critical to the team’s contention window.
Colorado Rockies
Can Colorado’s hitters close the gap in their home/away splits?
You could frame this as the one big question facing the Rockies for the duration of their existence. The Rockies tied for third in MLB last season with an .816 OPS in home games, but their .643 mark in away games ranked dead last. Brendan Rodgers is the only regular who fared better away from Coors Field. Maybe the Rockies paid Kris Bryant because he claimed to know the solution to this franchise-defining conundrum.
SELBE: Rockies Repeat History, Seemingly Expecting a Different Result
Los Angeles Dodgers
Can Cody Bellinger be counted on?
Bellinger’s revival during the 2021 playoffs gave hope that last season’s historic struggles could be behind him. But the 26-year-old has struck out an MLB-high 17 times (and walked just once) in 28 spring training plate appearances. It’s always wise to take spring statistics with a grain of salt, but given Bellinger’s sharp decline since his 2019 NL MVP campaign, you can’t blame Dodgers fans for worrying about him.
BACCELLIERI: Freddie Freeman Makes Baseball’s Strongest Team Even Better
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports
San Diego Padres
Will the rotation live up to its on-paper potential?
The status of Fernando Tatis Jr.’s wrist will certainly loom large over San Diego’s season, with Ha-Seong Kim (73 OPS+ in his 2021 rookie campaign) suddenly slated for the starting shortstop job. But even more important is the collective performance of the Padres’ rotation, which drastically underperformed expectations following the acquisitions of Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove last offseason. This time around, Mike Clevinger is in the mix after recovering from Tommy John surgery, while Dinelson Lamet is out, seemingly ticketed for the bullpen to reduce his workload and hopefully avoid his own second Tommy John procedure. A potential wild-card: Former top prospect MacKenzie Gore has reportedly looked much better in spring training after falling off the map last year.
San Francisco Giants
Is Joey Bart ready for his close-up?
Bart was billed as being nearly MLB-ready when he was drafted No. 2 overall out of Georgia Tech in 2018, but his path to the bigs has had a few more bumps than expected. Buster Posey’s unexpected retirement following his 2021 bounce-back campaign has cleared the way for Bart to serve as San Francisco’s Opening Day catcher, whether he’s ready or not.
