DENVER _ The Mets' increasingly improbable path to the playoffs looks a lot like the path they already took to relevant second-half baseball: They have to crush bad teams.
That is what they did in late July and early August, when they lost one game in two and a half weeks and revived their season. And it is what they will have a chance to do the next week and a half, as they play the out-of-contention Rockies, Reds and Marlins.
But now the Mets will need help _ a lot of it. After their 9-4 loss to the Rockies on Monday, the Mets are five games back of a National League wild-card spot with 12 games to play.
Other games Monday didn't offer that help. In Chicago, the Cubs beat the Reds. In Milwaukee, the Brewers beat the Padres. The Cubs hold the last NL playoff spot, with the Brewers one game back.
The Mets' playoff chances have grown dire enough that it is time to start referencing their elimination number, the combined number of wins by the Cubs (or the team holding the second wild card) and losses by the Mets that mathematically will eliminate the Mets. Their so-called tragic number is eight.
Put another way: If the Mets (77-73) are going to make the postseason, they need to catch fire _ maybe win every game the rest of the way _ and need two out of three of the Nationals, Cubs and Brewers to fall apart.
The Mets' loss Monday took a turn in the sixth, when they trailed by three runs and wasted a first-and-third, one-out scoring opportunity against Rockies righthander Antonio Senzatela. Manager Mickey Callaway used pinch hitters Luis Guillorme (in place of Tomas Nido) and Joe Panik (in place of reliever Walker Lockett) but did not deploy Wilson Ramos, the Mets' best bat available on the bench.
Guillorme (strikeout) and Panik (groundout) combined to end the inning.
Senzatela allowed four runs in six innings, lowering his ERA on the season to 6.83. Brandon Nimmo led off the game with a homer, and Jeff McNeil added a two-run shot in the third.
Steven Matz, entering with a 2.52 ERA in the second half, had his first stinker of a start since early August, allowing seven runs in four innings. He struck out four and walked two.
His night was smooth until a patented Matz meltdown in the fourth. With two outs and the Mets up 4-1, a series of unfortunate events began with Garrett Hampson's RBI single blooped to right. Matz then walked No. 8 hitter Drew Butera (.259 OBP) to load the bases and gave up a tying two-run single to Senzatela, the opposing pitcher who was 0-for-his-last-44 dating to exactly a year ago Monday.
Trevor Story had the big blow: a three-run homer to left.
In the first three innings, Matz threw 42 pitches. In the fourth, another 42 pitches.
That disaster ruined Matz's already-dramatic home/road splits. At Citi Field this year, Matz has a 1.94 ERA. Everywhere else, a 6.62 ERA.
Edwin Diaz pitched for the first time since Sept. 8, allowing a run in the eighth inning. Nolan Arenado lined an RBI double into the rightfield corner, scoring Daniel Murphy (two-out single) from first. Charlie Blackmon ended the inning with the flyout to the warning track in center, an estimated 397 feet from home. Diaz's ERA rose to 5.83.
In the ninth, the Mets' first two batters reached base, including Jed Lowrie, who drew a pinch-hit walk to reach base for the first time in 2019. The next three batters made outs.
