From the start, the elections to the five Assemblies of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram were not just State polls, but also ways for the BJP at the Centre to test out certain political ideas making the rounds, especially the demand for a caste census by the Congress and other parties in the INDIA grouping.
For the BJP, which has found ways of overcoming the challenges posed by the Mandal politics of the 1990s by consolidating a Hindutva vote bank with non-dominant caste OBCs (Other Backward Classes) with support also from non-Jatav Dalits in Uttar Pradesh, the demand for a caste census can pose several problems. Depending on the survey, demands for more representation in jobs and education will surely arise, upsetting the delicate balance of caste coalitions that the BJP managed to put in place under a Hindutva umbrella and labharthi or beneficiary vote bank. Upper caste anxiety in the face of demands for more reservation by OBC groups will also hurt the BJP as they form an important vote base for the party.
Passing reference
Through the campaign for Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, and even in Telangana, references have been made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Minister Amit Shah on the demand for a caste census, but not in a definitive way that would clarify whether the BJP would be getting behind that effort.
“As of now, there is no signal from voters in the Hindi-speaking States of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan that the call for a caste census – even after the results of a caste survey in Bihar were made public – have had any electoral resonance. The BJP may win or lose these States, but not over the demand over a caste census,” said a senior source in the BJP.
In fact, at a rally in Chhattisgarh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi termed poverty being the biggest caste, and pointed out that the slogan used by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi – ‘Jitni abadi utna haq’ (rights according to population) – was problematic as it could lead to majoritarianism and not social justice as commonly understood. “The welfare of the poor is my aim,” he had said, and a few days later also announced the extension of the free foodgrains scheme for 80 crore beneficiaries for another five years.
In Telangana, Mr. Modi said Mr. Gandhi’s slogan of rights according to population may end up hurting the interests of the South. “The southern States have achieved remarkable progress in population control, but will stand to lose heavily if the Congress’s new idea of rights in proportion to population is implemented…south India stands to lose 100 Lok Sabha seats [in next delimitation as per Congress plan]… Will south India accept this? Will south India forgive the Congress? I want to tell Congress leaders not to fool the nation. Make it clear why they are playing this game,” he said.
Mr. Shah, in Madhya Pradesh, blamed the Congress governments of the past for not implementing the recommendations of the Mandal Commission that said reservation should be extended to the OBCs. During a recent visit to Muzzaffarpur in Bihar, Mr. Shah said the Bihar government’s survey inflated figures of the Yadav community and minority population in the State. Interestingly, during the launch of the BJP’s manifesto in Chhattisgarh, Mr. Shah had said that the BJP was not against caste census per se.
However, there could be a demand for caste census from within the National Democratic alliance (NDA), from allies such as the Apna Dal (Sonelal) in Uttar Pradesh, which represent the interests of the Kurmi community. For that, the BJP may even trot out the findings of the Rohini Commission report, which went into the sub-categorisation of OBCs within the 27% reservation bloc for them. Such a move is expected to promote the interests of numerically small but more marginal communities within the OBC bloc, that is, non-Yadav OBCs in the Hindi belt.
The question therefore is not whether the BJP will accede to the demands for caste census, but whether the results of the polls in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana move the needle on electoral pressure. The answer to that is still in the air.
