Mary Conyard thought she would end up on the street with her two children after her husband "dumped" her in 1988.
"I found myself not having a roof over my head," the 69-year-old recalls.
"I had this vision of sitting on the gutter with my boys and my belongings."
Estate agents were reluctant to lease properties to single mothers, she said, but eventually, she found one in the Greater Western Sydney suburb of North Richmond.
"The house was rundown, neglected, but it was a roof over my head," she said.
However, a recent report has warned many vulnerable people like Ms Conyard won’t be afforded the same opportunities.
Community housing providers, politicians, think tanks and experts warn hundreds of thousands of people are on track to be affected by a shortfall in affordable and social housing within the next 15 years.
They cite a Deloitte report by the think tank Western Sydney Leadership Dialogue, which found 316,000 more community homes will be needed in NSW by 2036.
Building them is estimated to cost $3.5 billion per year.
Greater Western Sydney is estimated to have a shortfall of 28,200.
The Deloitte report, titled 'Commonwealth Social and Affordability Policy Review', cites last year's surge in house prices and rents — up 21 and 8 per cent respectively, and a homelessness rate that's up 41 per cent over the last five years.
It identifies older, single women and women fleeing domestic violence as the fastest-growing cohort at risk of homelessness.
"The biggest issue faced by the social and affordable housing sector in Australia is the large and growing gap between supply and demand," the report said.
"Addressing the shortfall … requires strategic long term planning and coordination across all levels of government and the private sector."
People who spend more than 30 per cent of their income on rent experience financial housing stress, according to the federal government's Australian Institute of Health and Welfare.
Ms Conyard's friend convinced her to apply for social housing, where homes are rented below market value to people who can't necessarily afford them.
The waitlist for one near her parents in Bankstown was nine years, she said, so she signed up for the 18-month wait for another in North Richmond.
Her rent went from 60 per cent of her income to 27 per cent.
"It gave me a security and a sense that I could then provide, I could have reasonable food on my table," she said.
Link Wentworth, a manager of 6,400 community homes, is hosting The Big Housing Debate today in Penrith, a forum where social groups, businesses and politicians will discuss ways to bridge the shortfall in housing for the vulnerable.
Link Wentworth's chief executive Andrew McAnulty said rising costs were pushing a broader group of people towards social and affordable housing.
He said some of the people affected in Greater Western Sydney would be the key workers the community relied on during COVID lockdowns.
"It's not just people at the very lower end of the economic social spectrum," he said.
"It's people who are key workers who are now battling to keep a roof over their head."
The NSW government is responsible for housing, but Mr McAnulty joined a chorus calling for the federal government to take a leading role.
"We've been lacking a national housing strategy for decades within Australia," he said.
It's a sentiment echoed by the Opposition's Shadow Minister for Housing and Homelessness, Rose Jackson.
"The sector has been calling almost with uniformity for a national housing and homelessness strategy," Ms Jackson said.
"I actually think the lack of strategy and plan for affordable housing is a really glaring hole in the federal conversation."
The NSW government's Land and Housing Corporation owns 125,000 social homes, which it values at $51 billion.
About 40 per cent of them are located in Western Sydney. They're an average of 44 years old.
The state government is fast-tracking social housing developments — spending $183 million to build more than 1,400 homes — but not at a quick enough pace to bridge the projected shortfall.
"We acknowledge there's a problem and we acknowledge it's really bigger than government can deal with,", the NSW government's parliamentary secretary for Western Sydney, Shayne Mallard said.
"The state and federal government just have to keep plugging away at getting more social and affordable housing."
Mr Mallard has first-hand experience with social housing.
His mother was 17 years old when she had him, and the family moved into a social house in Penrith.
"As a kid, I didn't understand the insecurity of housing. I know mum and dad felt very secure there," he said.
"I think the system works well when it gives people the opportunity — a break —to get themselves on their feet.
"And I appreciate that, I'm very proud of that history."
