Thailand votes on Sunday in an election expected to deliver big gains for opposition forces, testing the resolve of a pro-military establishment at the heart of two decades of intermittent turmoil in the coup-prone country.
About 52 million eligible voters are choosing among progressive opposition parties with a knack for winning elections and others allied with royalist generals keen to preserve the status quo after nine years of government led or backed by the army.
Opinion polls indicate the opposition Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties will gain the most seats but with no guarantee either will govern because of parliamentary rules written by the military after its 2014 coup and skewed in its favour.
The election again pits Pheu Thai's driving force, the billionaire Shinawatra family, against a nexus of old money, military and conservatives with influence over key institutions that have toppled three of the populist movement's four governments.
The seeds of conflict were sown in 2001 when Thaksin Shinawatra, a brash capitalist upstart, was swept to power on a pro-poor, pro-business platform that energised disenfranchised rural masses and challenged patronage networks, putting him at odds with Thailand's established elite.
Mr Thaksin's detractors in the urban middle class viewed him as a corrupt demagogue who abused his position to build his own power base and further enrich his family. Mass protests broke out in Bangkok during his second term in office.
In 2006, the military toppled Mr Thaksin, who fled into exile. His sister Yingluck's government suffered the same fate eight years later. Now his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, a political neophyte, has taken up the mantle.
'Dictatorship to democracy'
"May 14 will be a historic day. We will change from a dictatorship to a democratically elected government," Paetongtarn told cheering crowds on Friday at Pheu Thai's final rally.
"Every time we come to power we are able to bring prosperity to the people. I've entered politics to help the new generation, to support their families."
The populist approach of Pheu Thai and its predecessors has been so successful that rival forces that once derided it as vote-buying now offer strikingly similar policies.
The military-backed Palang Pracharat promises a handout of 30,000 baht ($890) each to 7.5 million farming families, a big increase in allowances for the elderly and infrastructure projects in Thailand's poorest region.
The United Thai Nation of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who led the coup against Pheu Thai's last government, has pledged debt relief, cheaper electricity for low-income groups and subsidies for transport and crop harvesting.
Mr Prayuth has campaigned on continuity, hoping to woo conservative middle-class voters tired of street protests and political upheaval.
"We do not want change that will overturn the country. Can you accept that? Do you know what kind of damage it would do?" he asked supporters on Friday.
Some analysts argue the fight for power in Thailand is more than a grudge match between the polarising Shinawatra clan and its influential rivals, with signs of a generational shift and hankering for more progressive government.
Move Forward, led by 42-year-old Harvard alumnus Pita Limjaroenrat, has seen a late surge.
It is banking on young people, including 3.3 million eligible first-time voters, to back its plans to dismantle monopolies, weaken the military's political role and amend a strict law against insulting the monarchy that critics say is used to stifle dissent.
Political analyst Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak from Chulalongkorn University said this election is like a referendum on almost nine years of military rule.
"From what I can see [at polling stations] today, the mood on the ground, the vibes are very positive, people want to have their say," Professor Thitinan told the ABC.
He said he expects the Thaksin-backed Pheu Thai party to win the most votes, but whether it could form government "would be a different proposition altogether".
"The fundamental problem we have is that the power holders, the incumbents, are going to lose this election by a big margin but all the indicators are suggesting they don't want to leave office," he said.
"I think that the leading scenario to me would be Pheu Thai winning big and getting to form government under some kind of a negotiation or a deal."
Professor Thitinan added that Move Forward, while popular, would most likely end up in opposition.
"The Move Forward party is campaigning with such a progressive agenda in Thailand, it's seen as radical," he said.
"But in fact, ending up in opposition might not be a bad thing for them because they could really build a base and at the next election we will see, they'll take it by storm."
ABC/Reuters
