The first phase of the Assembly election in Manipur on February 28 will see the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress vie for their most fertile seats across three Imphal Valley and three hill districts.
The BJP had won 18 and the Congress 16 of the 38 constituencies going to the polls in the first phase. Manipur has a total of 60 seats.
The BJP has been upbeat about retaining power but it faces more than just old rival Congress. Ally-turned-foe National People’s Party (NPP) headed by Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad K. Sangma has turned out to be a major challenger this time.
The bet is also on the Janata Dal-United (JD-U), an ally of the BJP in Bihar and at the Centre, to cause an upset or two.
Of the 38 seats, 29 are spread across Imphal East, Imphal West and Bishnupur districts of Imphal Valley dominated by the primarily Hindu Meitei community. The other nine are in the hill districts of Kangpokpi, Churachandpur and Pherzawl inhabited mostly by the Kuki-Zomi tribes.
The BJP has candidates in all the 38 seats while the Congress is contesting 35, the JD(U) 28 and the NPP 27. Among the smaller parties, the Shiv Sena is contesting seven, the Republican Party of India-Athawale and the Nationalist Congress Party six each, the Lok Janshakti Party three, the Kuki People’s Alliance and the Kuki National Assembly two each and the CPI one while 18 candidates are independent.
The NPP had named more candidates in this phase but a few were allegedly prevented from filing their papers or forced to withdraw their nominations by tribal militants they accused the BJP of using. The Congress, too, made similar allegations.
Congress petitions EC
On Saturday, the grand old party petitioned the Election Commission demanding immediate action after the Kuki National Organisation, a conglomerate of extremist outfits, openly committed its support to the BJP. The BJP distanced itself from this “commitment”.
There were several instances of violence over the fortnight leading to the first phase of voting. The father of NPP’s Andro candidate was shot by suspected militants while the BJP claimed its candidate from the same constituency was attacked.
The Congress, which failed to form the government in 2017 despite becoming the single-largest party, suffered desertions in the past five years. Almost half of its 28 MLAs quit and joined the BJP.
Ticket distribution
This boosted the BJP’s confidence ahead of the polls but the party is wary of the virtual split over ticket distribution. Disgruntled MLAs and senior leaders who were left out are contesting the polls as Congress, NPP and JD(U) candidates.
The general consensus is that the BJP leadership shot itself in the foot by depriving some deserving candidates of tickets. Nevertheless, the BJP has been the most visible party across the 38 seats.
The Congress is hopeful of doing better than expected because of a mix of veterans who “resisted the temptation” of switching over to the BJP and fresh faces who replaced the turncoats. But, gauging by the alleged attacks on some of its candidates, the NPP could spoil the chances of both the BJP and Congress in a number of seats. The NPP had won four of the nine seats it contested in 2017.
The BJP had based its campaign on sustaining the development and peace in a State that once suffered from frequent shutdowns and highway blockades. For its rivals, the issues were unemployment, black-marketing of urea and price rise.
