Much has been made about voters shifting away from the major parties and towards independents and Greens candidates.
But a lot of the analysis from this year’s federal election didn’t consider one important aspect: it was the first in which baby boomers were outnumbered by Millennial and Gen Z voters.
According to the 2021 census, Millennials, aged 25-39, are neck and neck with the baby boomers as the largest generational group in Australia, each representing about 21% of the Australian population. A further 18% of the population are members of generation Z (10-24 years old).
This is a significant voting bloc who have come of age at a time of economic uncertainty – either the global financial crisis or the Covid pandemic – growing inequality and an increase in extreme weather events, including bushfires and floods.
Many of them rent, with homeownership largely out of reach for those without family wealth due to steep rises of property prices, while wages remain stagnant. There’s also rising living costs, which renders consuming the daily recommended vegetable and fruit intake a luxury.
This is a demographic that is being closely watched in Victoria as the state heads to the polls in November.
The Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, will say he’s got far too much to do than spend time analysing what the federal result means for the upcoming state poll – his usual refrain is that elections are “always close” with a “handful of votes and a handful of seats” determining the outcome.
But he’s spent years courting the Millennial and Gen Z vote, largely by bypassing the media and communicating with them directly via social media. Andrews has even posted a Drake meme on Facebook then told reporters he didn’t know of the Canadian rapper’s songs.
Most of his government’s recent announcements seem to be geared towards this cohort, including the introduction of an affirmative consent model, a landmark festival to celebrate LGBTIQ+ Victorians, a two-year trial of paid sick leave for casuals and free kinder.
Labor faces stiff competition though from the Greens, which earlier this week, the party announced a plan to increase the power of renters across the state and ensure they have access to long-term secure and affordable housing.
The plan involves several initiatives, including capping rent increases in line with wage growth, establishing a housing ombudsman and better regulating estate agents.
The Greens have also vowed to end new coal and gas projects in the state and move to 100% renewable energy by 2030, build more social housing, increase funding for the corruption watchdog and ban political donations from property developers, fossil fuel companies and gambling – all similar policies to ones that helped the teals and Greens sweep the federal election.
They’re also looking to double representation by winning Albert Park, Northcote and Richmond in the lower house and the southern metropolitan region in the upper house.
Climate 200, which provided crucial funding for the federal teals, last month polled Victorian voters and found potential support for similar independents in the Liberal-held seats of Brighton, Caulfield, Kew and Sandringham, and the Labor seat of Hawthorn.
Independent candidates are also expected to stand in Benambra and the south-west coast, both held by the Liberals, and several Labor seats including Melton and Werribee. There is also a large field of micro-parties contesting upper house.
The Coalition, meanwhile, announced last month it will legislate an emission reduction target of 50% by 2030 as well as a pathway to net zero by 2050, bringing it in line with Labor, in a move designed to secure support in inner-urban electorates.
But its pledges to support LGBTIQ+ Victorians were affected by the Liberals’ preselection of Moira Deeming as an upper house candidate. The opposition’s integrity policy also came spectacularly undone by revelations leader Matthew Guy’s former chief of staff sought funds inappropriately.
Labor has also endured several scandals since coming into office.
Whether their policy pledges will be seen as cynical attempts to stop young people abandoning major parties in November remains to be seen.
