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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Jasper Jolly and Graeme Wearden (now)

Cost of budget pasta, bread and beef mince surges; German inflation near 50-year high– as it happened

The Office for National Statistics has found that budget versions of pasta, bread, crisps and beef mince were among the fastest-rising prices.
The Office for National Statistics has found that budget versions of pasta, bread, crisps and beef mince were among the fastest-rising prices. Photograph: Chris Howes/Wild Places Photography/Alamy

Closing summary

Time to wrap up....here are today’s main stories:

UK consumers are facing significantly bigger increases in the price of some budget food items including pasta, crisps and bread, new experimental data shows, as poorer families bear the brunt of the cost of living crisis.

UK firms have warned that post-Brexit rules are still making trade with Europe harder.

Rising costs have created a “ticking timebomb” for UK small business owners, the chairman of the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) has warned.

Almost half a million firms are at risk of going bust within weeks without a fresh wave of government support.....

....And three-quarters of small and medium-sized companies are worried about the long-term impact the cost of living crisis, soaring energy bills and rising inflation will have on their business.

Inflation in Germany has soared to its highest level in almost 50 years, lifted by expensive energy and food, and supply chain tensions.

Consumer prices have jumped 7.9% in the last year, and were 8.7% higher on an EU-harmonised basis.

The Brent crude oil price has hit a two-month high around $120 per barrel, on expectations of higher demand from China as Covid-19 restrictions are relased in Beijing and Shanghai.

Motoring groups warned that this will push prices at the pumps, as diesel and petrol both hit record highs last weekend.

The takeover of the Jus-Rol brand by a French-owned rival pastry maker could harm competition, resulting in higher prices and lower-quality products for customers, a UK watchdog has warned.

Goodnight. GW

In the banking world, Barclays has announced the closure of a further 27 branches across the UK.

Consumer group Which? says Barclays will have closed 103 by the end of the year, having also announced 13 closures in March, as banks continue to close branches as customers move to online banking.

Rocio Concha, Which? director of policy and advocacy, warns that some customers still need access to cash services:

“Barclays is right to say that consumers’ banking habits are becoming more digital. However, there remains a significant minority, for whom cash is a vital lifeline to pay for everyday essentials and keep track of their spending, that aren’t yet ready or willing to make that switch.

“While proposals put forward by the banking industry to protect access to cash, such as enhanced Post Offices, were welcome, government legislation to underpin them was vital.

“Now that legislation has been announced, the government must hand the Financial Conduct Authority the powers to ensure that when local communities lose a bank branch, their cash needs are still met.”

Financial Times weekend magazine

Far fom the cost of living crisis, the Financial Times’s ‘How To Spend it’ magazine is getting a rebrand, as our media editor Jim Waterson reports:

How To Spend It has long provided inspiration to bankers wanting to blow their bonuses on designer goods – but the publication has been rebranded because spending big is no longer seen as a positive quality.

The luxury magazine, packaged with the FT’s Weekend edition, is stuffed with expensive adverts for high-end watches, safaris, and yachts aimed at its jet-set wealthy readership – making it a money-spinner for the newspaper.

Yet the FT says the How To Spend It name no longer reflects the “changing times and priorities” in a world of financial inequality and the invasion of Ukraine. As such the magazine has been rebranded as HTSI, with the FT inviting readers to “to interpret the ‘S’ in line with their own deeper interests”.

The newspaper suggested possible definitions of HTSI include how to style it, how to save it, or how to steer, surf or savour it. Other potential reader interpretations – such how to splurge it, how to snort it, or how to steal it – did not make the press release announcing the changes.

Alas. More here:

A screen with the main index of the international markets at the Spanish Stock Exchange in Madrid, today
A screen with the main index of the international markets at the Spanish Stock Exchange in Madrid, today Photograph: Vega Alonso del Val/EPA

European stock markest are ending the day higher, amid relief that Covid-19 restrictions in Biejing and Shanghai are being relaxed.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index is 2.2 points higher at 446 points in late trading, with the German, French and Italian markets all up around 0.5% too.

With Wall Street closed for Memorial Day, European traders took their lead from Asia-Pacific markets, where China’s CSI 300 gained 0.7% and Japan’s Nikkei jumped 2%.

Michael Hewson of CMC Markets explains:

European markets have got the week off to a positive start, helped by a strong Asia session after authorities in Shanghai said businesses could start to reopen on Wednesday 1st June, as Omicron cases continued to fall. This optimism over an economic reopening in China, helped push the Nikkei 225 to a 3-week high.

In Europe we’ve seen the DAX and FTSE100 both push to their highest levels in over a month, before falling back from intraday highs.

The rally in the retail sector has picked up where it left off last week, led by the likes of JD Sports (+3.5%) and Ocado (+3.2%).

Nuclear reactors A (left) and B at Hinkley Point nuclear power station near Cannington in southwest England.
Nuclear reactors A (left) and B at Hinkley Point nuclear power station near Cannington in southwest England. Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng is considering extending the life of the Hinkley Point B plant but only if the nuclear power station complies with “safety certification”, a culture minister has suggested.

PA Media has the details:

Appearing on Times Radio, Chris Philp was asked about reports that ministers have been warned of potential power cuts to as many as six million households this winter, with the Government drawing up plans for rationed electricity if supply issues deteriorate.

Last month, Mr Kwarteng wrote to the owners of the UK’s remaining coal-fired power stations to ask them to stay open longer than planned, and Hinkley Point B, a nuclear power station in Somerset, could also be given an extension.

Mr Philp described the Business Secretary’s actions as “sensible” and “precautionary” and when asked about the risks of keeping Hinkley Point B open, the culture minister stressed that for the Government “safety is paramount”.

Unless there is a sharp downward correction of energy prices in the months ahead, German inflation will continue to increase and only start to level off in late summer, warns ING analyst Carsten Brzeski.

He points out that prices rose across the board this month:

We’ve stopped digging out illustrations of the times when inflation in Germany was at comparable levels. Let’s put it like this: most citizens and policymakers have hardly ever seen these kinds of inflation rates in their professional lives.

Sure, the surge in headline inflation is still dominantly driven by energy and commodity prices. However, looking at available regional data, the pass-through of these higher prices to the broader economy is in full swing. In some regional states, food inflation was already at double-digit levels and prices for leisure activities, hospitality, and more general services have been accelerating in recent months. The inflation rate for these items is far above the European Central Bank’s 2% target. In fact, in April only 17 out of the 94 main components of the German inflation basket had inflation rates of 2% or less.

The bank holiday festivities to celebrate Queen Elizabeth II’s 70 years on the throne may put the UK economy on the brink of a recession.

Bloomberg Economics has estimated that the holidays on Thursday and Friday will knock around 0.5 percentage points off growth in the April-June quarter. That could be enough to put the economy into contraction.

However, growth over the summer should save the UK from an official recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth). More here.

Denmark's Ørsted sees risk that Gazprom Export may halt gas supplies

Denmark could be the next European country to be cut off from Russian gas, as its biggest utility refuses to pay for it in roubles.

Ørsted says there’s a risk that Gazprom Export could stop supplying gas to the Danish energy company because it continues to reject Russia’s demand for payment in roubles.

Ørsted said in statement:

“Gazprom Export continues to demand that Orsted pays for gas supplies in roubles. We have no legal obligation under the contract to do so, and we have repeatedly informed Gazprom Export that we will not do so,”

“There is a risk that Gazprom Export will stop supplying gas to Orsted. In Orsted’s view, this will be a breach of contract,” it added.

German inflation highest in nearly 50 years

At 7.9%, Germany’s inflation rate is the highest in almost half a century, since the oil shock of the early 1970s.

Statistics body Destatis reports that German inflation was last this high in the winter of 1973/1974 when mineral oil prices jumped during the first oil crisis.

Inflation in Germany has jumped higher than expected, as the Ukraine war continued to push up energy costs.

German consumer prices rose by 7.9% per year in May, statistics body Destatis estimates, up from 7.4% in the year to April.

On an EU-harmonised basis, prices soared by 8.7%, a rise from April’s 7.8%, and rather hagher than forecasts.

Destatis reports that energy prices rose by 38.3% year-on-year in May 2022, while food prices were 11.1% higher.

This puts more pressure on the European Central Bank to start tightening monetary policy; last week, ECB president Christine Lagarde signalled that the eurozone’s negative interest rates will end within months,

Updated

The surge in energy prices which has hammered UK families and businesses has also been highly profitable for Russia’s Rosneft.

Rosneft is planning to pay record high dividends for 2021. It has announced a final dividend of 23.63 roubles, taking its total dividend to the year to an alltime high of 41.66 roubles.

But as Bloomberg points out, foreign investors could have difficulties obtaining the payout following restrictions imposed by President Vladimir Putin.

Russian firms have to transfer money owed to investors or lenders from “unfriendly states” to special bank accounts in rubles, according to a March decree. Moving funds from those accounts -- or converting them to another currency -- is possible only by special permission, according to the Russian central bank.

A customer fills his car with diesel at a BP garage.
A customer fills his car with diesel at a BP garage. Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

The average cost of filling a typical family diesel car has hit £100 for the first time, and there may be further rises ahead.

Figures from data firm Experian Catalist show the average price of a litre of diesel reache 182.7p on Saturday.

That brought the cost of a full tank for a 55-litre diesel car to around £100.50, just as many families filled up for their half-term holiday - with many more planning a mini-break over the four-day Platinum Jubilee bank holiday period which begins on Thursday.

Petrol prices are also at record levels - hitting 172.7p per litre on Sunday.

And with crude oil hitting two-month highs around $120/barrel this morning, pump prices are likely to push higher.

RAC fuel spokesperson Simon Williams explains:

“With crude oil prices consistently above $115 a barrel last week, worse is sadly yet to come just in time for the Jubilee bank holiday, particularly as petrol is now more expensive than diesel on the wholesale market.

“Due to the rapid rise in the cost of wholesale unleaded, retailers are now taking smaller margins on petrol but larger ones on diesel.

“If the wholesale price of petrol stays above diesel, we ought to see the current 10p-a-litre gap in average petrol and diesel forecourt prices narrow.

“If this doesn’t happen diesel drivers will be getting a raw deal, and with prices at these historic highs, every penny matters to drivers.”

Almost 500,000 UK small businesses ‘at risk of going bust within weeks’

Almost half a million firms at risk of going bust within weeks without a fresh wave of government support, the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) has warned today.

The FSB says rising costs have created a “ticking timebomb” for UK small business owners.

While the FSB chairman, Martin McTague, applauded the chancellor Rishi Sunak’s latest support for consumers through the £15bn cost of living package announced last week, he said some of those recipients could lose their jobs unless the government rolled out targeted measures for their employers.

“We don’t have any problem with the way the chancellor dealt with consumer needs,” McTague told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

“But there is still a massive problem with small businesses. They are facing something like twice the rate of inflation for their production prices, and it’s a ticking timebomb. They have got literally weeks left before they run out of cash and that will mean hundreds of thousands of businesses, and lots of people losing their jobs.”

Full story: Pasta, bread and crisps among biggest UK budget food price increases

UK consumers are facing significantly bigger increases in the price of some budget food items including pasta, crisps and bread, new experimental data shows, as poorer families bear the brunt of the cost of living crisis.

Highlighting the challenge for low-income households, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed prices for some low-cost groceries increased at a much faster rate than for general inflation in the year to April.

The price of pasta jumped the most from a basket of 30 basic food items compiled by government statisticians, with an increase of 50% from a year earlier – more than five times the headline rate of inflation of 9% for the same period.

The figures also highlighted above average inflation price rises for crisps (up 17%), bread (16%), minced beef (16%) and rice (15%).

The ONS decided to compile the experimental data, tracking price changes for the lowest-cost everyday groceries sold by supermarkets online, after the anti-poverty campaigner Jack Monroe highlighted the risks facing the poorest households in Britain from much faster increases in the price of budget brand items.

However, the ONS said it found the inflation rate overall for the 30 everyday groceries it selected was about 6%, roughly the same as the 6.7% average inflation rate for food and non-alcoholic drinks in the past year, with the price of some budget food items including potatoes, cheese and pizza falling over the period.

More here:

In other retail news... the competition watchdog has ordered Morrisons to keep its operations separate to new acquisition McColl’s.

McColl’s operates hundreds of convenience stores, and the Competition & Markets Authority wants to investigates whether the merger agreed this month could lead to reduced competition in any markets.

The CMA has the power to force Morrisons to sell off stores in certain areas if it finds evidence the merger could lead to higher prices for shoppers.

The ‘unrelenting’ increase in food prices is hitting households, says Myron Jobson, senior personal finance analyst at interactive investor:

“Shopping for groceries is taking a bigger bite out of household budgets amid the unrelenting rise in prices. The heightened cost to put food on the table is difficult to stomach at a time when the cost of seemingly everything else from energy bills to petrol is on the up.

“Many of us are feeling the inflation pinch most through the food we buy, and the headline inflation figures often drastically underestimates the extent of real-world food inflation, with some items, like pasta up 50% in a year, while other popular items such as crisps, bread, minced beef and rice up by sizeable percentages over the same period.

“It is important to remember that every shopping basket is different and, as such, the impact of food inflation is unique to each individual. We all have our own inflation number, and it is worth keeping tabs on your spending habits to get a better idea of the goods and services that are eating most into your budget, and where you could cut back as the cost of living continues to surge. Look at what makes sense for you – not an arbitrary measurement from anyone else.”

You can read the report into the rise in lowest-cost grocery item prices here.

Here’s some analysis from the ONS too:

Jack Monroe: People are being priced out of their own dinner

Food campaigner and writer Jack Monroe, who has written about the impact of inflation on poorest families, has welcomed the Office for National Statistics’ report.

Speaking on BBC News 24, Monroe says the price increases for products such as pasta (+50% in the past year) outlined today won’t come as news to anyone who is living the cost of living crisis.

But it shows that the poorest households do need more support, she says.

To have pinned down in official data, official statistics, the reality for millions of people in the UK at the moment puts us in a better position to campaign for things like better wages, and higher uprating for benefits.

Monroe points out that today’s report shows that the prices of most basic ranges have risen in the last year. She says that while supermarkets shouldn’t disproportionately lift the price of their cheapest products, MPs and businesses need to recognise the need to lift benefits and wages.

The onus shouldn’t necessarily be on supermarkets to price-match their pasta to poverty wages.

There is a joint responsibility; everybody needs to be looking after those in our society that are the most vulnerable and have the least recourse to power.

[Reminder, the ONS found that overall, lowest-priced items increased in cost by around as much as average food and non-alcoholic drinks prices.

But, some essential items such as pasta, bread, mince, rice, breakfast cereal and frozen vegetables have increased over 10%, well ahead of wages and benefits]

Monroe also explains that she recently met a former aeronautical engineer, named John, at her local foodbank.

John and his partner recieve universal credit. Each week, they work out which bills they won’t be able to pay, and how many meals he and his partner will skip so they can feed their three children.

People are being priced out of their own dinner, up and down the country.

The rise in the use of food banks in this country is astronomical, and it’s just set to get worse.

The rise in food prices has a knock-on impact on donations to food banks, as people don’t have spare money to help, she adds.

Updated

The fact that the difference between the lowest-cost version of a grocery item and the next lowest-cost version is often at least 20% highlights the importance of supermarkets offering their cheapest brands at all their stores.

In February, Asda committed to making its cheapest food ranges more widely available, after the anti-poverty campaigner Jack Monroe warned that low-income shoppers were facing price increases because they could no longer buy those budget items.

Updated

You can use this interactive chart to track how the prices of budget grocery products have changed (and mostly risen) over the last year:

Updated

Here are some of the key data on inflation in budget ranges. The pasta surge is by far the most notable, but others include crisps (17%), bread (16%), minced beef (16%) and rice (15%).

Yet at the same time for six of the 30 items, the lowest prices fell on average over the year. Price decreases were measured for potatoes (down 14%), cheese (7%), pizza (4%), chips (3%), sausages (3%) and apples (1%).

The Office for National Statistics tracked the price of the lowest-cost grocery items in the UK.
The Office for National Statistics tracked the price of the lowest-cost grocery items in the UK. Photograph: Office for National Statistics

Updated

Budget pasta prices up 50% amid scrutiny of inflation in value ranges

A woman holds a shopping basket of groceries on 22 May.
A woman holds a shopping basket of groceries on 22 May. Photograph: Matthew Horwood/Getty Images

Budget pasta prices have inflated by 50% in the last year but overall supermarkets’ lower-price ranges have risen at about the same rate as food more generally, according to new analysis by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The analysis found that budget ranges had increased in price by about 6% to 7% in the year to April 2022, about the same as other food ranges.

The ONS carried out the research after concerns - raised most prominently by food writer Jack Monroe - that general inflation data were not showing the situation faced by the poorest who tend to rely more on budget or value ranges.

The analysis suggested how price increases (or the disappearence of budget ranges) could hit poorer shoppers, with a large step of 20% up to the next price point for two-thirds of the items tracked.

The ONS cautioned that it was “highly experimental research, based on web-scraped supermarket data for 30 everyday grocery items”, and pointed to a series of limitations to the data.

Sainsbury’s to commit £500m towards lower prices amid cost of living crisis

A customer shops for fruit and vegetables at a Sainsbury’s supermarket in Walthamstow, east London on 13 February.
A customer shops for fruit and vegetables at a Sainsbury’s supermarket in Walthamstow, east London on 13 February. Photograph: Tolga Akmen/AFP/Getty Images

Sainsbury’s has said it will have committed £500m towards keeping prices down between March 2021 and March 2023, amid the “huge impact” of the cost of living crisis.

Britain’s second-largest supermarket chain said on Monday that the £500m figure includes actions already taken in the last year, plus some to be brought in for the year to come.

Milk, eggs, meat, fish, fruit and vegetables and “key household essentials” would be the targets for retaining lower prices, Sainsbury’s said. The announcement did not disclose how far it expects to increase prices outside of the core products, with households across Britain (and indeed the world) struggling with the higher price of energy. UK inflation is at a 40-year high of 9%.

Sainsbury’s made a net profit of £677m in the year to March 2022 and is estimated to make another £400m profit in the current financial year.

Simon Roberts, Sainsbury’s chief executive, said:

The cost of living is having a huge impact on our customers’ and colleagues’ lives and we understand that, right now, every penny counts.

In written comments, Roberts also made it unusually clear that the lower prices was aimed at retaining market share - an important consideration for the biggest UK supermarkets as they try to hold off competition from the likes of Aldi and Lidl, both German discount supermarkets. Customers “do not need to go anywhere else to get low prices,” he said.

The latest draft of the EU’s sanctions package against Russia suggests that it will follow the broad details briefed earlier - with the exemption for pipeline deliveries wanted by Hungary and other eastern European countries.

However, it looks like it will be left to the leaders of the EU’s member states to hash out agreement on final details later.

That deal would mean that Europe would continue to pay Russia for oil - a deeply controversial situation. And that is not to mention the billions of euros flowing to Russia for its natural gas.

Reuters reported that the draft announcement, which refers to the collection of heads of EU governments known as the European Council, said:

The European Council agrees that the sixth package of sanctions against Russia will cover crude oil, as well as petroleum products, delivered from Russia into Member States, with a temporary exception for crude oil delivered by pipeline.

The European Council therefore urges the Council to finalise and adopt it without delay, ensuring fair competition and a level playing field in the EU Single Market, and solidarity among Member States in case of sudden interruptions of supply.

It may be a fairly gentle gain for the FTSE 100, but it has neverthless pushed it to its highest point in a month.

Markets rallied at the end of last week, and have continued their momentum on Monday (albeit with the US trading desks likely to be absent later thanks to a holiday).

Some analysts ascribe the optimism on markets to the prospects of a Chinese economic recovery following a period of severe lockdowns that have disrupted the market that was previously the world’s growth engine.

Richard Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor, an investment platform, said:

Asian markets added to the positive momentum as China began to ease lockdown restrictions in both Beijing and Shanghai. The Premier has announced that there will be a range of measures aimed at boosting a beleaguered economy, with more detail to follow shortly.

However, the damage has largely been done over the last few months, with an inevitable drop in consumer sentiment tied to a soaring unemployment rate, and with many economists predicting a contraction in the current quarter. Even so, a perceived improvement to the fractious US/China relationship has also improved sentiment, particularly given the limitations which global economies have had to endure this year.

Countryside is a member of the FTSE 250 index, building homes such those in this digital render of a project near Peterborough.
Countryside is a member of the FTSE 250 index, building homes such those in this digital render of a project near Peterborough. Photograph: Countryside Properties

It is a fairly gentle start to the day for trading on the London Stock Exchange (and that might be expected to continue when there is a rare public holiday in the US, meaning Wall Street is closed). But there are some notable moves.

Among the mid caps on the FTSE 250 housebuilder Countryside is the clear stand-out: its shares have gained as much as 29% after San Francisco-based investor Inclusive Capital Partners (it likes to be known as In-Cap) made a £1.5bn takeover offer - the second approach within the last two months.

Countryside told In-Cap that it would not engage in negotiations, according to a stock market announcement on Monday - setting up the possibility of a higher bid.

In-Cap owned 9.2% of Countryside’s shares on Friday.

Introduction: EU's Russian embargo plan pushes oil prices above $120 per barrel

Good morning, and welcome to our live coverage of business, economics, and financial markets.

Oil prices have hit a two-month high as traders anticipate a belated deal to limit Russian oil imports into the EU alongside other factors such as a recovery in demand in China as lockdown restrictions ease.

Brent crude futures prices rose above $120 per barrel on Monday morning for the first time since late March. The 50-cent gain for the day equated to a 0.4% increasein the North Sea benchmark, while its North American counterpart, West Texas Intermediate, also gained 0.7% to reach $115 per barrel.

A graph showing that Brent crude oil futures prices rose to two-month highs on Monday as traders anticipated a Russian oil embargo in Europe.
Brent crude oil futures prices rose to two-month highs on Monday as traders anticipated a Russian oil embargo in Europe. Photograph: Refinitiv

The EU should be able to agree new sanctions, including on Russian oil, on Monday ahead of a summit of leaders from each country, according to its foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell.

Borrell told broadcaster France Info, according to Reuters:

We need to decide unanimously. There were tough talks yesterday afternoon, as well as this morning.

I think that this afternoon, we will be able to offer to the heads of the member states an agreement.

However, it remains to be seen whether the proposed ban will have teeth, with discord among European governments. Hungary in particular, led by Viktor Orbán who has long had a warm relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, has stood in the way of an embargo in recent weeks, partly because of the country’s dependence on Russian oil.

The EU is working on a compromise plan that ban Russian oil arriving in tankers but allow pipeline imports, meaning Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic could continue to receive oil via the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline that runs through Ukraine.

Asked if plans to include a ban to import Russian oil could fail over the resistance from Hungary and other eastern European states, Borrell said: “No, I don’t think so ... there will be an agreement in the end.”

Europe’s stock markets have started the week on the front foot, with the Stoxx 600 index of European blue-chip companies gaining 0.7% in the opening trades. Germany’s Dax index was up 0.8% and France’s Cac 40 index gained 0.6%.

In the UK the FTSE 100 gained 0.4% and the mid-cap FTSE 250 rose by 0.9%.

US markets are closed today for the Memorial Day holiday.

The agenda

10am BST: Eurozone economic sentiment index (May; previous 105; consensus: 104.9)

1pm BST: Germany annual inflation rate (May; previous: 7.4%; consensus: 7.6%)

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