Rafael Nadal defeated Matteo Berrettini in the Australian Open semifinals to come within one match of setting the all-time Grand Slam wins record.
Tied at 20 career major wins with Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic, Nadal will face Russian Daniil Medvedev in the Men’s singles final. Ranked No. 2 in the world, Medvedev beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semis and presents a challenge to Nadal’s pursuit of history.
Medvedev, who lost in the 2021 Australian Open final, is the betting favorite at Tipico Sportsbook to win this time around, with -205 odds on his moneyline. Nadal enters the championship round +155. The two have played four previous times, with Nadal winning three, including the 2019 US Open final. However, Medvedev won their last meeting in 2020.
Medvedev is also the reigning US Open champion, having clinched his first career major title in 2021 with a win over Djokovic. He has a chance to make his own history by becoming the first man in the Open Era to win a second Grand Slam in the very next major tournament.
500th win on hard court.
6th #AusOpen Final.
29th Grand Slam Final.@RafaelNadal still got it 💪🇪🇸🎥: @AustralianOpen | #AO2022 pic.twitter.com/KbWGzq2XeH
— ATP Tour (@atptour) January 28, 2022
The 25-year-old Russian has faced more challenges heading into this championship match, though, needing 97 games over the last two rounds to advance—including three tie-breakers and a semifinal blowup.
Ten years his senior, Nadal has played just 82 games in that span. He also has two straight set wins against one for Medvedev, which included another of his seven tiebreakers this tournament.
Those numbers put great value on Nadal’s +122 odds as a set winner, and make the over 40.5 games at -110 odds a good bet, too. There are -114 odds for under 40.5 games and Medvedev has -165 odds as a set winner.
Considering how the two are playing as they enter the final, and the history on the line for Nadal, the Spaniard should also be able to put up a fight against the odds for him to win it all.
The Australian Open men’s final is scheduled to take place at 3:30 a.m. ET on Sunday.
