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AAP
AAP
Ben McKay

NZ Reserve Bank holds rates at 5.5 per cent

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand believes inflation will be back in the bottle by year's end after holding the official cash rate at 5.5 per cent.

The April meeting of the RBNZ's monetary policy committee resolved to hold the OCR for the sixth-straight meeting, dating back to May last year.

Governor Adrian Orr has previously summarised the central bank's position as "watch, worry, and wait".

"A restrictive monetary policy stance remains necessary to further reduce capacity pressures and inflation," Mr Orr said.

Wednesday's hold was universally expected, with consumers price index (CPI) inflation at 4.7 per cent, above the central bank's target band of one to three per cent.

In the sharpest hope for some time that mortgage-holders might soon see relief, a four-paragraph media statement on Wednesday concluded with a dovish sentiment.

"While some near-term price pressures remain, the committee is confident that maintaining the OCR at a restrictive level for a sustained period will return consumer price inflation to within the one to three per cent target range this calendar year," Mr Orr said.

By comparison, Australia's official cash rate is 4.35 per cent.

Senior economists at New Zealand's banks predict long-awaited cuts will begin from the last quarter of this year.

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley has forecast a first cut in November, while others see the OCR falling from early 2025.

Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ, is in the latter camp, with Wednesday's announcement failing to move the dial.

"Headline CPI inflation is still a long way fromwhere it needs to be. We continue to expect cuts won't be on the table until 2025," she said.

Fresh CPI figures for the 12 months to March are due next week, which will be revealing.

"Labour market data on 1 May is arguably actually more important," Ms Zollner said.

"We expect it to confirm the clear message coming from business surveys – that the labour market is no longer inflationary as strong growth in labour supply meets weakening labour demand."

Mr Orr said the committee saw services inflation and local governments hiking rates as "upside risks" to inflation, but the current high OCR and globally weak growth had the potential to bring inflation into check sooner than expected.

New Zealand is currently enduring a double dip recession, with four of the past five quarters producing negative growth.

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