After a year marked by Great Power competition and ongoing Covid difficulties, 2022 promises more of the same – but foreign policy watchers say New Zealand must step up its international efforts after a period of insularity.
If talk of the world turning a corner in the fight against Covid-19 proved premature in 2021, so too did any sense of optimism about the geopolitical climate.
The year in foreign policy included ongoing tensions between the United States and China, the collapse of Afghanistan to the Taliban, and the massing of Russian troops on the Ukraine border – not to mention the ongoing disruptions to global trade and travel as a result of the pandemic.
It is little wonder, then, that Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta describes the mood on her first offshore trip as one of fatigue over Covid, concern about the economic ramifications yet to come, and a desire to look ahead to 2022 and beyond.
“People were really trying to move the conversation towards that period of time.”
Robert Ayson, a professor of strategic studies at Victoria University, sees a mixed picture for the year ahead – not “impossibly bad”, but with enough reason for concern about the broader trajectory.
“There's not much room to be optimistic on things like climate change, there's not much room to be optimistic that suddenly China and the US will find an easy way to resolve the competition, or that Putin is suddenly going to get easier to manage…but I don't want to add my voice to the kind of, ‘it's all doom and gloom’.”
Monitoring 'the three Ms'
For Ayson, the foreign policy landscape in 2022 could be defined by what he calls “the three Ms”: Macron, the midterms, and Morrison.
In April, French President Emmanuel Macron will attempt to win a second term by heading off the challenge of far-right nationalists Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour (among other candidates).
Success would provide further proof for the argument that “the tide of nationalism and populism that brought [Donald] Trump into power…hasn't rolled on with quite the same level of acceleration that I think some were concerned about”, Ayson says.
That may be in part due to the pandemic exposing the limits of the politics of resentment, with countries led by populists among those who have been hit worst by Covid.
“What Covid has done on the whole is, is showing that you know, that governments can sometimes do good things, and that it's not all a ‘deep state’…sometimes, you want a bit more government, rather than a bit less.”
Ayson says Joe Biden’s defeat of Trump went a long way towards proving the resilience of moderate politicians and policies – but the November midterm elections could put a spanner in the works of a post-Trump politics.
With an already shaky grip on majorities in Congress, Republican control of the House and the Senate would put the president “in kind of a lame duck situation” for the remainder of his term, with Trump's plans for 2024 casting a further shadow over proceedings.
“It’s not as if Labor in Australia would suddenly say, ‘We don't need a defence force, and we're going to pull out of Aukus and and we're going to suddenly open our gates to migrants or refugees…but I think it would be a slightly easier relationship to manage in the public communication space.” – Prof Robert Ayson
While there was initial hope that Trump’s could lead to a more coherent and committed US foreign policy, Ayson says Biden’s domestic troubles seem likely to act as continued drag on such a reorganisation.
There are some positive signs, including an improving relationship with Europe, but the scepticism about overexposure to international crises (which predates Trump) is set to endure, he says.
Closer to home, New Zealand eyes will be cast across the ditch as Scott Morrison’s Liberal/National coalition vies to win a fourth term in office (the Australian election must be held by May 21).
While the Government has found ways to manage an occasionally frosty relationship with its Canberra counterpart, Ayson says New Zealand would likely prefer to be working with a Labour government led by Anthony Albanese – although an Albanese administration unable to get legislation through the Senate could be the worst of all options.
“It’s not as if Labor in Australia would suddenly say, ‘We don't need a defence force, and we're going to pull out of Aukus and and we're going to suddenly open our gates to migrants or refugees…but I think it would be a slightly easier relationship to manage in the public communication space.”
The Pacific loomed large in New Zealand’s foreign policy moves in the past year, and the state of the region will remain at the forefront of discussions in 2022.
Dr Anna Powles, a senior lecturer at Massey University’s Centre for Defence and Security Studies, says an early test of regional structures will come in February, with Pacific Islands Forum members meeting in a last-ditch effort to convince five Micronesian states not to withdraw from the organisation.
There is hope (but not yet confirmation) that the Micronesian leaders will attend the meeting, with a face-to-face discussion offering greater opportunity to resolve some of the divisions unable to be bridged by Zoom diplomacy.
“Otherwise, the forum faces starting 2022 having lost five key members, effectively losing the sub-region of Micronesia…there are significant kinds of credibility issues associated with that – it would be a very sad day for Pacific regionalism if that does happen,” Powles says.
On the electoral front, Fijian Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama is set to face a stiff challenge from former prime minister and two-time coup leader Sitiveni Rabuka in what she says could be “a particularly robust election” (although whether the contest goes ahead at all remains to be seen, as the country continues to battle Covid).
How Mahuta’s Pacific pivot from reset to resilience plays out in the coming year could be critical for New Zealand’s standing in the region, Powles says, with the Government needing to show its Pacific partners it can turn its principles into meaningful policy.
For her part, Mahuta notes the ongoing work of the Public Service Fale, set up in early 2020 to help train public servants in the Pacific, as well as a changed approach to development support and climate finance.
But the bigger challenge for Mahuta and the Government may be stepping up its efforts with international partners and the wider world.
“New Zealand’s strategic horizon has shrunk in the last couple of years, and how do we regain that ground? How do we ensure that New Zealand is far more productively engaged than it has been over the past couple of years?" – Dr Anna Powles
Powles says New Zealand “really does need to put some weight in there to be reengaging at the international level”, after a couple of years spent largely looking inwards.
“New Zealand’s strategic horizon has shrunk in the last couple of years, and how do we regain that ground? How do we ensure that New Zealand is far more productively engaged than it has been over the past couple of years?
“We have to not just show up with our values, but also with something substantive to contribute.”
Ayson has similar concerns, with a lack of clarity over what exactly is driving New Zealand’s foreign policy decisions.
“If you look at the defence assessment, you get one picture, if you look at the…intelligence priorities you get another picture. But if you look at a speech from Nanaia Mahuta you get a different set of priorities, because she's unwilling to talk about strategic competition…
“There are different actors pushing in different directions, so the likelihood is that you're going to get scrambling when things are happening – it's not so much that we need to put in more investment, we just need to be better positioned.”
Mahuta does not entirely rebut the suggestion that New Zealand has been looking inwards, but says many other countries have found themselves in a similar position during the pandemic, while the successful rollout of vaccinations will provide “a little more confidence to start to re-engage and reconnect with the world”.
Having just completed her first trip as foreign minister at the end of 2021, she is considering further options for 2022 – albeit with the not inconsiderable caveat that the Omicron variant, and its effect on travel, must be taken into consideration.
There is work to do within our borders, too: Mahuta wants to make further progress on a human rights framework intended to provide a more consistent approach to alleged breaches overseas, while she is also keen to improve engagement with civil society groups on issues like deep sea mining and the Pacific.
But as with 2021, much will depend on how the pandemic evolves – or devolves – along with other unpredictable bumps in the road.
