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Fortune
Fortune
Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez

Nvidia says America's trade war with China is hurting revenue, warning Trump's tariffs have added a big 'unknown' to its future outlook

(Credit: Patrick T. Fallon—AFP via Getty Images)
  • Nvidia executives struck a cautious note on the company’s China business during its quarterly earnings call Wednesday. CEO Jensen Huang clarified the company’s China sales are half of what they were before the U.S. implemented export controls. Nvidia’s chief financial officer also said President Trump’s stance on China is an unknown that could affect the company’s future outlook.

Geopolitical issues with China have already cut into Nvidia’s bottom line—and President Trump’s tariff stance represents an “unknown” for the company as it looks to the future.

In the company’s quarterly earnings call Wednesday, CEO Jensen Huang said Nvidia’s China sales have been cut in half since the U.S. implemented export controls on Nvidia chips to the country. Its sales in China represent about 15% of total revenue. 

Colette Kress, Nvidia’s chief financial officer, said the company was waiting for more clarity on Trump’s tariff plans and how it will affect the company’s outlook.

“It's an unknown until we understand further what the U.S. government's plan is, both its timing, it's where, and how much,” Kress said. “At this time, we are waiting.”

Kress implied Trump’s China stance could affect the company’s future earnings from the country.

“Absent any change in regulations, we believe that China shipments will remain roughly at the current percentage,” she said.

In an interview with CNBC following the call Wednesday, Huang said it was hard to tell if export controls are actually effective, but he said Chinese tech companies are fierce competitors.

“Export control and otherwise, Huawei, other companies, are quite rigorous and very, very competitive,” Huang said.

The Nvidia executives’ comments come as President Trump considers tightening chip controls for China put in place by the Biden administration to try to prevent the country from cultivating an advanced semiconductor industry that could aid its military capabilities.

In a meeting earlier this week, Trump administration officials pressured allies to increase their own restrictions on China's chip industry, Bloomberg reported. The administration has previously considered cutting back on the type of Nvidia chips that can be exported to China without a license. 

Nvidia’s H20 chips, which are designed for China under export controls, are being increasingly sought out by Chinese tech giants after the rapid rise of open-source AI model DeepSeek shocked markets last month.

Huang visited the White House in late January and reportedly discussed “strengthening U.S. technology and AI leadership,” according to a company spokesperson. Yet, after the meeting, Trump declined to say whether he would ban more Nvidia chip sales to China and talked about escalating tariffs.

“Eventually we’re going to put tariffs on chips,” he said following the meeting.

Nvidia on Wednesday surpassed analyst expectations with its fourth-quarter earnings. The company reported quarterly revenue of $39.3 billion, above the $38.3 billion analysts were expecting. Sales for the company’s money-printing data center unit stood at $35.6 billion, which is more than the total revenue of rivals Intel and Advanced Micro Devices combined, Bloomberg reported.

Analyst Dan Ives of WedBush Securities was enthusiastic about Nvidia’s earnings beat and said the company’s results showed demand for Nvidia’s chips will persist, despite fears stemming from the rapid development of DeepSeek.

While questions remain about the Trump administration’s China stance, analysts at Wedbush led by Ives said it will ultimately not have a major effect on Nvidia’s business.

“Our view is ultimately the bark will be worse than the bite with China tariffs/export controls and this is all a game of high stakes poker to drive a deal with China at the negotiating table sometime in 2025,” analysts led by Ives wrote in a Thursday note.

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