Nvidia (NVDA) has been at the center of the semiconductor industry since the artificial intelligence (AI) frenzy began. Its cutting-edge graphics processing units (GPUs) are becoming increasingly important as demand for AI computing rises. The company reported another strong quarter and a strong end to its fiscal 2025, fueled by “insane” AI demand. Nvidia’s revenue increased from $4.6 billion in fiscal 2015 to an impressive $130.5 billion in fiscal 2025. Nvidia’s stock price has risen 1,771.6% over the last five years, reflecting this demand for its AI-centric GPUs, particularly the Blackwell architecture.
Despite its results for fiscal 2025, Nvidia’s stock is down 18% this year, driven by recent market dynamics such as geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties with China, which have caused some volatility.
Nonetheless, Wall Street rates this hyper-growth AI stock as a “Strong Buy,” expecting a 105% increase if it reaches the high price target of $220. The company is set to release its Blackwell Ultra and Rubin — its next-generation chip — at Nvidia’s developers conference on March 17. Let’s find out if the stock is a buy now.
Fiscal 2025 Was Extraordinary for Nvidia
In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, total revenue increased 78% year-over-year to $39.3 billion, while adjusted earnings increased 71% to $0.89 per share. Data Center remains the leading revenue contributor, driven by AI growth. Revenue in this segment increased by 93% to $35.6 billion, driven by strong demand for Blackwell. Revenue in the Gaming and AI PC segment fell by 11% in the fourth quarter, but this was offset by a 103% increase in Automotive and Robotics revenue and a 10% increase in Professional Visualization revenue. For the full fiscal year 2025, revenue surged 114% to $130.5 billion while adjusted earnings jumped 130% to $2.99 per share. CEO Jensen Huang stated in the quarter that the company successfully increased production of its flagship Blackwell AI supercomputer to meet rising demand for high-performance computing solutions.
Nvidia continues to maintain a robust balance sheet despite significant investments in AI expansion. At the end of Q4, it had cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaling $43.2 billion. It also generated free cash flow of $60.7 billion in fiscal 2025, paying out $834 million in cash dividends and $33.7 billion in share repurchases.
Headwinds Loom Over Nvidia
While Nvidia continues to perform well, trade concerns loom over the company. Investors are concerned that President Donald Trump’s stricter export restrictions, including a complete ban on H20 chips, will have a significant impact on Nvidia. Currently, China accounts for 13% of total revenue by customer billing location in fiscal 2025. Nvidia faced a similar situation earlier in 2023, when the Commerce Department restricted exports of advanced AI chips to China. However, Nvidia addressed the issue by introducing a new AI chip that complied with regulations. Nonetheless, the U.S. market accounted for the majority (47%) of total revenue in fiscal 2025, up 127% from fiscal 2024. In addition, revenue in Singapore and Taiwan increased by 246.7% and 53.5%, respectively, year on year. This is a significant accomplishment in the face of export concerns to China. Investors will have to wait and see how Nvidia handles any trade restrictions that may arise this time around.
Citi analyst Atif Malik believes that, despite these headwinds, Nvidia offers a great risk-reward opportunity because it is currently trading below its historical averages and has great long-term AI growth opportunities. Malik reiterated his “Buy” rating for the stock, with a target price of $163.
Similarly, TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter maintained the same outlook, with a price target of $175. Cowen believes that healthcare will be Nvidia’s most significant AI opportunity in the coming years. He labeled the company "The Accelerated Computing Leader," claiming that its “suite of superior technology, long pedigree of innovation, and extensive growth-oriented investments” will result in massive long-term returns. Furthermore, many industry analysts even predict Nvidia will grow to be $10 trillion in market cap within the next decade.
Analysts that cover Nvidia expect revenue and earnings to increase by 56.3% and 50.3% in fiscal 2026. Revenue and earnings could further increase by 22.2% and 27.6%, in fiscal 2027, respectively. Currently, Nvidia trades at 23 times forward 2026 earnings, lower than its five-year historical average P/E of 71.7x.
What Is the Target Price for Nvidia Stock Now?
On Wall Street, Nvidia stock remains a “Strong Buy.” Out of the 44 analysts covering the stock, 38 have a “Strong Buy” recommendation, two say it’s a “Moderate Buy,” and four rate it a “Hold.” The average target price of $177.59 suggests Nvidia stock can climb by 66% from current levels. Plus, the high price estimate of $220 implies an upside potential of 105.6% over the next 12 months.
Nvidia’s upcoming GTC conference will provide insight into its future innovations. Despite current market pessimism, discussions about upcoming products such as the Blackwell Ultra and Rubin chips may reignite investor interest. Huang is optimistic that “AI is advancing at light speed as agentic AI and physical AI set the stage for the next wave of AI to revolutionize the largest industries.”
Given that the stock is currently fairly valued, Nvidia remains a top AI pick for the long term.
