"Of course this record will be broken sooner or later, maybe by him in the future. He will score a lot of goals."
That was the post-match verdict of Pep Guardiola after Erling Haaland scored his record-breaking 35th goal of his debut Premier League season - more than any other player has managed in a single campaign in the competition. With five games left to extend that record, Guardiola's prediction is ominous for the rest of the league.
Guardiola also warned Manchester City's rivals that Haaland can still improve, and listed areas where the Norwegian isn't prolific as well as where he is. Free kicks, for example, was an area Guardiola suggested could result in more goals.
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With 35 goals in 31 appearances, the numbers behind Haaland's record are frankly ridiculous. Martin Tyler's muted commentary as Haaland chipped the ball over Lukas Fabianski on Wednesday night to break the all-time record has been criticised - but Haaland has made such a normality of scoring that maybe it was a fitting tribute. He was always going to break the record. It was history, but not a surprise.
Haaland's 35 goals came from 108 shots, meaning he found the back of the net every three attempts on goal, attempting 3.4 shots per game. That is a rate of a goal every 71 minutes in the league, so if he plays every minute of the final five games of the season, he could have another six goals to extend his record.
And given Haaland has only completed 90 minutes in 20 of his 31 appearances, he could have added another four goals at his scoring rate. In all competitions, that number lowers to 68 minutes per goal - with 51 now across different competitions, and a maximum of nine games still to play, at that rate Haaland could end the season on 63 goals, levelling Dixie Dean's record of goals in all competitions.
When assists are taken into account - Haaland has seven in the Premier League so far - he is contributing a goal or assist every 59 minutes. Translate that over a full 38-game season and Haaland would have a hand in an astonishing 59 goals. The room for Haaland to improve his tally - simply by playing more minutes available - is frightening.
So what can Haaland do with the minutes he is playing, or the shots he is taking? An Opta graphic shows that of Haaland's 108 shots, only six have come from outside the area, resulting in one goal - away at Wolves. With Haaland encouraged to drop deeper of late and link play, he has found himself on the edge of the area more often in recent games, opting to feed a winger and sprint into the box for a cross. If he opted for a shot, maybe he could boost that tally a little more.
Looking at the breakdown of his goals, seven have been penalties, and the majority have come from the area between the goalposts. Ten have been in the six-yard box, and 11 have come between the six-yard line and the penalty spot. He has scored four hat-tricks, with one more needed to equal Alan Shearer's record of five in a single season.
He has four goals in meetings with Wolves and Crystal Palace, three against Nottingham Forest, Manchester United, West Ham and Southampton, and two against Brighton, Fulham, Leeds, Leicester and Arsenal. He has only failed to score against Liverpool, Brentford and Chelsea - with two of those opponents still to play for a second time this season (and he was injured for the home win over Liverpool).
It's notable that he has scored less against teams near the top of the table - he's only scored more than two against United in the top ten - but that's to be expected from better defences. If Haaland hadn't scored his goals, City would be a huge 23 points worse off, and sitting in fifth, fighting to qualify for the Champions League. Add a few more in the bigger games, though, and who knows where City might be this season.
Looking at the games Haaland hasn't scored in can also offer an insight into where he can score more goals. He has blanked against Bournemouth, Brentford, Chelsea, United, Spurs, Villa, Forest and Newcastle. City won four of those, and Haaland contributed assists in three, but they did drop points four times, each by one goal, so it's not a stretch to suggest that these are the tight games where more could be asked of Haaland given the goals he does score.
Goals against Brighton and Brentford in the last week of the season would hand Haaland another record, overtaking Salah for scoring against 18 of the 19 teams he has faced this season. More importantly, goals in those games could hand City the Premier League title if Arsenal take them all the way, and given City have never lost when he's scored, Haaland will be hoping for more records and a medal or two before the end of the season.
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