THE number of direct deaths in Gaza are likely being undercounted by 41%, according to a new study.
Analysis published by The Lancet Journal found the statistical discrepancy happened in the middle of 2024 as the country's health care infrastructure fell.
The analysis was conducted by academics at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Yale University and several others.
The researchers used capture-recapture analysis to assess the death toll from Israel’s air and ground campaign in Gaza from October 2023 to June 2024.
They estimated 64,260 deaths due to traumatic injury during this period. This is about 41% higher than the official Palestinian Health Ministry count at the time.
The study also found 59.1% of those killed were women, children and people over the age of 65. It did not provide an estimate of Palestinian combatants among the dead.
Lead author Zeina Jamaluddine told Reuters: “Our research reveals a stark reality: the true scale of traumatic injury deaths in Gaza is higher than reported."
The ministry recently said more than 46,00 Palestinians had been killed.
The study said the ministry's ability to maintain death records electronically has been reliable but failed as Israel's invasion continued.
Israel states it tries to avoid harming civilians and blames Hamas for their deaths because the militants operate in residential areas.
A method used to evaluate deaths in other conflict zones, including Kosovo and Sudan, was used to account for gaps in data by researchers.
Using data from at least two independent sources, researchers look for individuals who appear on multiple lists of those killed. Less overlap between lists suggests more deaths have gone unrecorded.
The official count had been based entirely on bodies that arrived in hospitals but later relied on an online survey distributed by the health ministry to Palestinians inside and outside the Gaza Strip and obituaries posted on social media.
