The number of homicides in major American cities is falling at its quickest pace in decades following huge jumps during the pandemic.
Why it matters: The nation is on track to see one of the lowest levels of violent crimes and homicides since President Obama was in office.
- Polls show crime is a top concern ahead of the 2024 election — and it's an issue where Republicans regularly edge Democrats.
- But falling homicide rates could take the steam out of the crucial GOP advantage.
By the numbers: Murders declined by nearly 20% in 204 cities during the first three months of 2024 compared to the same period last year, according to AH Datalytics, a criminal justice consulting firm.
- At this pace, the murder rate in the U.S. could match its level in 2014 when many cities saw 30-year lows in violent crime and homicides.
- The big decline in homicides, as calculated by AH Datalytics, was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.
Zoom in: Boston has seen a massive 82% drop in homicides so far, the most of any major city in the analysis.
- Philadelphia currently is experiencing a 37% decline in murders and Miami is seeing a 33% fall.
- Houston, where crime was an issue in last year's mayoral election, is facing a 25% drop in homicides thus far.
Reality check: Los Angeles and Atlanta saw noticeable jumps in homicides in the first three months of 2024 compared to last year.
- Los Angeles is experiencing a more than 9% spike in murders, while Atlanta is seeing a 15% surge.
- St. Louis, Savannah, Georgia, and Albuquerque, New Mexico, also are seeing murder pace increases.
Between the lines: Former President Trump is using the fear of crime on the campaign trail and has relentlessly focused on "migrant crime" as illegal border crossings hit record highs.
- Trump titled a Michigan campaign event "Biden's Border Bloodbath" earlier this month and warned that the country will "cease to exist" if he doesn't win in November.
Zoom out: FBI data and numbers from police agencies show that crime has been steadily declining since 2022.
- AH Datalytics calculated its data using the latest available crime numbers from local and state sources.
The intrigue: Democrats are also seeing signs that they are closing the gap with the GOP among voters who say which party is better at fighting crime.
- An Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll conducted in partnership with Noticias Telemundo and released this month found that Republicans had only a 4-point edge on which party was better at dealing with crime.
- Previous polls had them leading Democrats by double digits.
Editor's note: The chart headline has been corrected to note that it is a selection of major cities, not the most populous cities.
