Once again, the Muslim population has become a point of discussion. Last month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi referred to Muslims in India as “those who have a large number of children”. A Data Point published on April 23 showed that the fertility rate of Muslims was 2.36 in 2019-21, much closer to the replacement level. The fertility rate is the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime. A rate of 2.1 (the ‘replacement level’) means that the population is stable.
This month, the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister concluded that while the share of Muslims in the total population increased by 43.15% between 1950 and 2015, the share of Hindus decreased by 7.82%.
Data show that the number of children one chooses to have has more to do with socio-economic parameters than religion. Government data show that educating girls and not marrying them off early, creating more awareness about family planning, and ensuring access to family planning measures help reduce fertility levels.
Also read: A well-intentioned study and a demographic myth
The fertility rate of Muslim women varies according to region. For instance, the fertility rate of Muslim women in Bihar was 3.6 in 2019-21, much higher than the 2.0 in Maharashtra. Similarly, the fertility rate of Muslim women was 1.9 in Tamil Nadu and 2.0 in Karnataka, much lower than the 2.7 in Jharkhand and 2.4 in Rajasthan. The answer for why fertility levels drastically vary among Muslim women across different regions lies in how developed a State is both economically and socially.
Chart 1 | The chart plots the percentage share of women aged 20-24 years who got married before becoming adults against the Muslim fertility rate, as of 2019-21.
Chart appears incomplete? Click to remove AMP mode
The trend line shows a strong positive correlation, which means that fertility rates were higher in States where a higher share of women were married off early.
Chart 2 | The chart plots the percentage share of the female population aged 6 years and above who are literate against the Muslim fertility rate, as of 2019-21.
The trend line shows a strong negative correlation, which means that the fertility rates were lower in States where the share of literate women was higher.
A major concern is also lack of awareness about family planning. In 2019-21, close to 25% of Hindu women said they had never heard or seen a message about family planning via radio, TV, newspapers, wall paintings or the Internet. Among Muslim women, the share was higher at 30% (Chart 3).
Chart 3 | The chart shows the share of women who said that they had never heard or seen a message about family planning via radio, TV, newspapers, wall paintings or the Internet, across select religions.
Even among women who were aware and wanted to limit the number of children they planned to have, or wanted more space between children, a significant share was unable to do so due to lack of access to family planning measures.
Chart 4 | The chart shows the share of unmet demand for family planning among Hindu and Muslim women across select States in 2019-21. Unmet demand refers to the share of women who want to limit or space out children, but are unable to do so.
In most States, the unmet demand among Muslim women was higher than Hindu women. In States such as Haryana, Bihar, and Jharkhand where the fertility rate of Muslim women was high, the unmet demand was also high. In these States, the gap between the unmet demand between Muslim and Hindu women was much wider too. Increasing awareness about contraceptive measures and enhancing access to them, educating girl children, and stopping child marriage — all functions of the government — will reduce the fertility rates among all the religious groups at a much faster rate.
Watch our Data video
