NSW Minerals Council chief Stephen Galilee says he "personally doubts" Eraring power station will close as announced in 2025 because the NSW grid will not have developed sufficient capacity to replace it in the meantime.
In an interview with the Newcastle Herald (see P26-27), Mr Galilee said he expected Liddell would finished its phased shutdown by April next year but did not believe "any responsible government" would let Eraring close in August 2025, seven years ahead of the original schedule.
Mr Galilee said he could not "see a scenario where there is sufficient replacement capacity in the grid in its current form to cover the demand that is going to be there".
He said an intermittently powered grid needed a capacity of two to three times average demand to provide reliable supply - including storage infrastructure yet to be built.
Responding, the NSW Department of Planning and Environment said "any deferral of the potential closure of Eraring is a matter for Origin Energy".
"The NSW Government is progressing the procurement of the Waratah Super Battery, and the project remains on track to be operational well before the potential closure of Eraring in August 2025."
An Origin spokesperson said "we have consistently said that we will assess the market over time" to "help inform any final decisions on the timing for closure of all four of Eraring's units".
(Note: Liddell has four 500 megawatt (mw) units, Eraring four 720mw units and a 42mw diesel generator. The 700mw Waratah battery can supply 1400megwatt-hours - or 1400mw for one hour, 700 megawatts for two hours and so on.)
Origin noted an April statement by the Australian Energy Market Operator, which said retiring Eraring "without replacement investments" could reduce reliability in the National Electricity Market, particularly in NSW.
With "existing and committed developments', NSW would have a reliability gap of 590 megawatts from 2025-26 but "anticipated" projects of another 1700 megawatts of wind and solar would bring the state to "within the reliability standard" in 2025-26.
Read the full Q&A with Stephen Galilee here
