Labor, the Greens and independent politicians have called on the New South Wales government to explain how emissions projections square with its 2050 net zero goal, after its own data showed pollution from coal and gas extending out to mid-century.
The figures, which are contained within the government’s emissions dashboard, also show the land sector growing as a sink for carbon emissions even after the government loosened land clearing laws allowing farmers to remove more vegetation.
The Liberals and Nationals have set a 70% reduction goal in emissions by 2035 compared with 2005 levels. While the NSW Environmental Protection Authority has begun work to require companies to show how they will cut carbon pollution, they do not yet have legislated statewide 2035 or 2050 targets to work with to drive change.
The dashboard indicates that on current policies, emissions from the electricity sector dive from 41m tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent in 2022 to about one-tenth of that by 2035. By then, the state may have no remaining coal-fired power stations while gas-fired ones should be at net zero emissions, helping to put the 2035 goal in reach.
However, other sectors remain stubbornly high. Annual emissions from coal mines and gas fields, for instance, rise by almost half from a recent low in 2021 of 10.6 mtCO2-e to 15.9 mtCO2-e by 2027. By 2035, those emissions are projected to be at 8.7 mtCO2-e, and remain at 3.2 mtCO2-e by 2050.
The so-called base case scenario, which assumes business as usual and the absence of net-zero funds and programs, shows the targets would be overshot. Overall emissions would only be down about one-third by 2035 versus 2005, and two-thirds down by 2050. Fugitive emissions alone would be at 14.6 mtCO2-e by 2035 and 5.9 mtCO2-e by 2050.
The Albanese government last year legislated its plan to cut 2005-level emissions 43% by 2030, and to zero by mid-century. Victoria and the ACT have legislated emissions reduction goals but most jurisdictions, including NSW, have only set into law goals such as future levels of renewable energy.
The office of the energy minister and treasurer, Matt Kean, referred questions about NSW’s emissions to the Department of Planning and Environment. A department spokesperson said NSW had “some of the most ambitious climate targets in the nation”.
“Modelling confirms that NSW is on track to reach its 2030 and 2035 targets under current policy settings,” the official said, with details released late last year. “NSW values transparency in its emissions reporting, and we are the only state in Australia to publish its emissions modelling by sector out to 2050.”
State Labor’s environment spokesperson, Penny Sharpe, said the government’s dashboard lacked transparency, with changes to results made over time that weren’t clarified.
“Labor is concerned that changed assumptions move the projected emissions reductions without explaining what action is being taken or is required to get there,” Sharpe said.
If elected 25 March, “Labor’s going to legislate targets”, Sharpe told a public event on Wednesday in Sydney. “We’re going to put in a place an independent, scientifically-based net zero commission that’s going to do the planning and every year report to parliament and require a response as to how we’re going to get to net zero”.
Sharpe told Guardian Australia that reining in land clearing, with its associated emissions and biodiversity losses, was “one of the things that keeps me awake at nights”.
According to the dashboard, the land sector will be absorbing more carbon it emits every year from 2015 out to 2050. Those estimates include a big jump in the net contribution in 2016 to the highest level since 1999, even though that year also included the passage of laws by the Coalition government making it easier for farmers to clear land.
Joeline Hackman, an independent candidate for the seat of Manly backed by the teal Climate 200 group, said if the NSW government “was serious about meeting its emission targets, it would legislate them and stop approving massive coal expansions, including a further eight coal projects in 2023 along with the Narrabri coal seam gas project”.
Sue Higginson, the Greens environment spokesperson, said that “whatever the outcome of the election, the Greens will push whichever party forms government to go further and faster to reach net zero, and that includes no new or expanded coal and gas projects”.
“It’s clear and galling to see that the NSW government is scrambling to find more gas to extract and burn for energy between now and 2050, particularly in the Pilliga forest and across the Liverpool plains,” Higginson said.
