Nearly six months out from the next New South Wales election, a new poll shows there is little separating the major parties, with a hung parliament a distinct possibility.
The latest Guardian Essential poll of 661 voters showed 36.4% would put the Coalition first on their ballot if an election were held in the state tomorrow, while 32% would choose Labor.
The figures represent a slight drop in popularity for the government since Essential polling conducted two months ago when 37% intended to give the Coalition their first preference vote.
If replicated on election day, it would represent a 5.2 percentage point drop in first preference votes for the government since the 2019 election, although Labor’s vote is also down 1.3 percentage points, with 8.5% support for the Greens and almost 13% still undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 3.8%.
Essential Media executive director Peter Lewis said that unlike in Victoria, where Labor is a clear favourite ahead of the state’s November poll, it was a much closer contest in New South Wales.
“We’re talking about a pretty tight parliament. It looks close,” he said.
“If that was replicated [on March 25], you’d be close or [have a] hung parliament.
“It’s just a matter of how those undecideds break in the context of a campaign and how many of those undecideds go independent or to another party.”
Guardian Australia reported on Friday that about half of voters – and more than two-thirds of young people – were considering backing independents across the two states.
While the number of independents will not be known for some time, candidates are predicted to run on platforms of integrity in NSW politics, sustainability and local development issues in key seats in Sydney’s north and east.
The Coalition won a slender majority in 2019 but has since been forced to govern in minority after losing multiple MPs to the crossbench as well as the seat of Bega in a byelection earlier this year.
The latest NSW polling reflected the Coalition’s ongoing struggle to attract female voters, with 41.1% of men indicating they would put the Coalition first, compared with 31.9% of women.
Just a quarter of voters under 35 told Essential they would vote for the Coalition, compared to above a third for Labor. Almost 15% of younger votes would put the Greens first.
“If you were the Coalition looking at that you’d be going, ‘gee, we’ve got a problem with young people and women and we’ve got a particular problem with young women’,” Lewis said.
“Labor would be saying, ‘gee, we’re in a pretty decent position, we’re just going to make the case for those undecideds’.”
The NSW premier, Dominic Perrottet, and his government made a high-profile bid for the women’s vote with the state budget in June, announcing new childcare places and universal pre-kindergarten for four-year-olds.
But since then the Coalition has been dealing with a number of political challenges, including ongoing wages disputes with rail workers, nurses and teachers, and controversy over the appointment of former deputy premier John Barilaro to a highly paid trade gig and the resulting resignation of Stuart Ayres from cabinet.
Perrottet will also be heading to the polls without some of his key frontbenchers – including the minister for customer service , Victor Dominello – who have announced their intentions to resign at the next election.
But with Labor unable to pull meaningfully ahead, opposition leader Chris Minns has a tough six months ahead in which he will be pressed to deliver his vision for the future of the state.
He will also need to settle internal jostling ahead of the party’s state conference in October when candidates will be finalised by delegates.
