NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) is a prominent Texas-based integrated power company with a market cap of $20.6 billion. It is a key player in the energy sector, offering electricity generation, energy retail services, and sustainable energy solutions.
NRG has outperformed the broader market considerably over the past year. The stock gained 91.7% over this time frame, while the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) rallied 22.6%. In 2025 alone, NRG stock is up 14%, surpassing SPX’s 3.1% rise on a YTD basis.
Zooming in further, NRG has also far outpaced the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 30.2% over the past year. Moreover, NRG’s gains on a YTD basis outshine the ETF’s 3.6% returns over the same time frame.
Over the past year, NRG Energy has seen strong market momentum, fueled by strategic acquisitions such as Direct Energy and Vivint Smart Home, which have expanded its portfolio. The company’s diversified business model, combining energy generation with retail services, positions it for continued growth, especially with the rising demand for renewable energy and home services.
NRG Energy's shares declined marginally following its Q3 earnings results announced on Nov. 8. Its revenue of $7.22 billion dipped 9.1% year over year, while the company’s adjusted EPS of $1.85 fell short of the $2.05 consensus, though it marked a 14.2% year-over-year increase. Nevertheless, NRG raised its 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $3.66 billion to $3.81 billion range, up $130 million due to a recasting of customer acquisition costs.
For FY2024, which ended in December 2024, analysts expect NRG’s EPS to grow 47.2% to $6.36 on a diluted basis. However, the company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimate in two of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on two other occasions.
Among the nine analysts covering NRG stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on six “Strong Buy” ratings and three “Holds.”
This configuration is more bullish than a month ago when five analysts gave the stock “Strong Buys.”
On Jan. 21, Evercore Inc. (EVR) upgraded NRG Energy from "In Line" to "Outperform," raising its price target from $74 to $126. This upgrade follows a strong 103.63% return over the past year. Evercore highlighted NRG's solid risk/reward profile among independent power producers (IPPs) and noted management's confidence, demonstrated by aggressive share buybacks.
The mean price target of $113.75 represents a 10.6% premium to NRG’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $140 suggests an upside potential of 36.1%.
