South Australia can expect its next wave of increased COVID-19 infections in November based on the latest modelling.
But Health Minister Chris Picton says the data does not indicate the next spike in daily cases will match the most recent surge.
It also points to a sharp reduction in hospital admissions over the coming weeks.
"We have seen a significant reduction in terms of cases in the community but there is likely to be an additional wave," the minister told reporters on Tuesday.
"The modelling points to that being likely to come around November.
"We're going to have to continue to monitor peaks and troughs going forward."
The University of Adelaide projections show case numbers falling considerably through September and October before rising to a high of up to 2000 a day in the following month.
That is well below the peaks of more than 5000 a day recorded in July and more than 6000 a day in April.
The modelling was presented at a meeting of SA's Emergency Management Council on Tuesday which decided against making any changes to coronavirus restrictions.
Limited measures remain in place, including mandatory mask wearing in settings such as health care, aged care and public transport.
SA Health reported another 850 COVID-19 infections on Tuesday, continuing a downward trend in recent days and weeks.
Mr Picton said while the latest modelling pointed to a smaller surge, that did not take into account the emergence of any new COVID-19 variant.
"Modellers can't predict what a new variant is going to do or how transmissible it's going to be," he said.
