The Championship season is set for a thrilling finish, with Nottingham Forest preparing for a big 10 games when they return to action after the international break.
The table is incredibly tight. A number of teams remain in the hunt for a top-six spot, with the Reds firmly in the mix.
Just 10 points separate second-placed Bournemouth from QPR in eighth, with Forest a point and a place further back. Even Millwall, in 10th, will still not have given up hope of gatecrashing the play-off spots.
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Steve Cooper’s side have momentum behind them, having been on a nine-match unbeaten run prior to losing 1-0 to Liverpool in the FA Cup. And their quarter-final defeat shouldn’t disrupt that; indeed, the way the hosts performed should only add to their sense of belief, having pushed their Premier League opponents all the way.
The Reds also have at least one game in hand on most of their rivals. In some cases, they have three.
But how many points will they need to give themselves a shot of reaching the top-flight? Forest currently have 58 from 36 matches played. It’s difficult to predict what the threshold will be, but here’s a look at how many points the team in sixth picked up in the last 10 seasons.
2020/21 - Bournemouth, 77 points
2019/20 - Swansea City, 70 points (decided on goal difference)
2018/19 - Derby County, 74 points
2017/18 - Derby County, 75 points
2016/17 - Fulham, 80 points
2015/16 - Sheffield Wednesday, 74 points
2014/15 - Ipswich Town, 78 points (decided on goal difference)
2013/14 - Brighton and Hove Albion, 72 points
2012/13 - Leicester City, 68 points (decided on goal difference)
2011/12 - Cardiff City, 75 points
That puts the average at roughly 74 points. Whether that will be enough to finish in the play-off places this year remains to be seen.
If the benchmark does prove to be around there, Cooper’s men would need about 16 points from their last 10 games.
The Reds have four home fixtures and six away (including visiting top-two Fulham and Bournemouth) in their final sprint. But if it does come down to goal difference, they are already in a good position, with +18 - only the Cottagers and the Cherries currently have a better one.
“There’s no doubt that everybody wants to be winning games. We’re no different to that,” Cooper has said. “I’m a believer in doing what you can do, getting your own house in order first, pick up points and then the rest of it will take care of itself.
“Even a few months ago, when we were in a league position that nobody liked, it was only us who could change that. Nothing has changed. You just have to look after yourself and see where it takes you.”
