Nottingham Forest have eight games left to try to save themselves from an immediate return to the Championship.
On the back of a nine-match winless run, the Reds have dropped into the relegation zone for the first time since early January. They are level on points with 17th-placed Everton, however, and are just two points adrift of Leeds United in one of the tightest survival battles of recent years.
Steve Cooper’s side face a big game at the City Ground on Sunday, against Manchester United. Ahead of that clash, here’s our round-up of the latest goings-on Trentside.
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Relegation fight
Almost midway through April, there remains little to choose between a bunch of teams at the bottom end of the table. Forest are only six points adrift of Crystal Palace, in 12th.
Common wisdom has 40 points as being the magic mark for survival. But this year it looks as though the cut-off will be lower than that.
The data experts at FiveThirtyEight say the Reds’ chances of going down have increased to 75 percent, following their poor run of form. They have Forest finishing second-bottom with 33 points, ahead of Southampton (31 points) and below Leicester City (34 points). Their modelling has Everton staying up on 35. Meanwhile, Opta’s odds on Forest have gone from a 63 percent chance of relegation on April 6 to 70.8 percent chance on April 10, following the defeat to Aston Villa.
The forecasts change based on the latest results, so if the Reds can quickly turn around their form - starting on Sunday - the probability of them finishing in the bottom three will adjust accordingly. General predictions, though, seem to suggest 35-36 points could be enough to finish above the dotted line, which would mean Cooper’s men require eight more from the last eight games. Tight, but certainly doable if fortunes quickly improve.
Telling stat
There’s no getting away from the impact injuries have had this season. Likewise, the challenge Cooper faced earlier in the campaign of trying to settle on his best side, following the summer overhaul.
According to Opta, Forest have used 11 different centre-back partnerships in the Premier League this season. Only Chelsea (17), West Ham United (14), Southampton (13) and Manchester City (12) have worked their way through more, with Bournemouth also on 11.
Up until Jonjo Shelvey’s error, the three-man back line of Joe Worrall, Felipe and Moussa Niakhate had worked well at Villa Park. But with Niakhate having limped off, Scott McKenna an unused substitute in the West Midlands and Willy Boly still out, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Worrall and Felipe are the starters on Sunday.
Cup exit
A young Under-21s side were knocked out of the Premier League Cup at the semi-finals stage in midweek. They were toppled 6-1 by a strong Blackburn Rovers team at Ewood Park, with only two of the hosts’ players having not featured for the first-team this season. Alex Gibson-Hammond got on the scoresheet for the Reds, pulling a goal back when they were 3-0 down.
Meanwhile, tickets are now on sale for the Under-17s’ Premier League Cup final against Tottenham Hotspur. That match will take place at the City Ground on Wednesday, April 19, 7pm kick-off.
Tickets are priced at £3 for adults and £1 for over-65s and under-18s. Tickets are only on sale in the Brian Clough Stand.
How should Forest line up against Manchester United? Have your say in the comments below
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