Runs of unexpected bliss in college football can be built on many different dynamics, but the foundation is often the same thing: a sizable advantage in turnover margin. You want to have a Cinderella season? Take the football away many more times than you give it away. It’s the most direct path to victory.
That stat, born at the intersection of opportunity and preparedness, helps explain surprise undefeated starts for the Iowa State Cyclones (plus-nine turnover margin), Pittsburgh Panthers (plus-seven), Indiana Hoosiers (plus-eight) and BYU Cougars (plus-seven). And it certainly has come into play at the service academies—the Army Black Knights are plus-eight, and the Navy Midshipmen entered Saturday’s game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish a whopping plus-12, second-best in the nation.
The Midshipmen hadn’t turned over the ball since their first game, against Bucknell. Their creative, hybrid wing T/option offense was a thing of precise beauty—so many moving parts functioning without major malfunction. They clicked off 307 consecutive plays without a turnover from late in that season opener through last week, an extraordinary streak of fastidious football.
Along the way they became one of the better stories of 2024, turning this game into a surprise showcase. It was an ABC national telecast in an NFL stadium with a big crowd—the kind of big-game trappings Navy is not accustomed to.
Then, Navy’s greatest strength became its biggest weakness. After five straight games with no turnovers, the No. 24-ranked Midshipmen were a bumbling mess in the Meadowlands, losing five fumbles and throwing an interception in a 51–14 reality check against Notre Dame. The six turnovers were the most for the program since 2002.
The spate of fumbles was especially sad because they were unforced by the defense: a simple pitch to fullback Alex Tecza was dropped; a botched handoff left the ball laying on the ground for the taking; a muffed punt by Isaiah Bryant did the same; quarterback Blake Horvath, who was having a superb season, simply lost control of the ball in the end zone and the Irish fell on it for a touchdown; then Eli Heidenreich fumbled another punt.
“When you look at almost every single turnover or fumble, it was something we did,” Horvath said. “They almost didn’t touch the ball. We wanted it really bad and we bit ourselves.”
In seafaring terms, this was the Exxon Valdez running aground off Alaska. It was over in plenty of time for Bill Belichick—who grew up in Annapolis while his dad, Steve, was an assistant coach at Navy—to leave the stadium early.
“I thought the stage might have been a little big for our players today,” Navy coach Brian Newberry said, candidly. “A lot of mistakes. We had guys afraid to make mistakes. When you play with fear in your heart like that, that is when mistakes happen.”
And so Navy’s 6–0 start crashed headlong into a superior opponent. The Irish had the good sense to accept the gifts the Midshipmen kept offering up, turning free possessions into easy points and an easy victory—one that looks good on their 7–1 College Football Playoff resume.
Notre Dame entered the latter half of this season needing to add some heft to its body of work. The season-opening victory over the Texas A&M Aggies has only gained strength, but nothing else resonates—and the ghastly loss in Week 2 to the Northern Illinois Huskies definitely hurts. With Florida State a bust of historic proportions and USC flailing in its first season of Big Ten membership, the Irish were looking light on quality opponents.
Then Army and Navy rose up, just in time, both going 6–0 simultaneously for the first time since 1926. Army now has gotten to 7–0, but still has a pair of games to get through before playing the Irish on Nov. 23. This Navy game was a clear and present opportunity.
If the moment was too big for the Midshipmen, it was just right for the Irish. They struck quickly, scoring on their opening drive and then converting the first Navy fumble into seven more points and a 14–0 lead. They finished with 466 yards of offense while connecting on several big plays—and they committed zero turnovers of their own.
The only game this season in which Notre Dame has lost the turnover battle was that disaster against Northern Illinois, when the Irish were minus-two. That game was a clear case of a team that hadn’t mentally put away the triumph at Texas A&M to start the season, a painful lesson coach Marcus Freeman wants to keep fresh in his players’ minds.
“We can’t lose the pain,” Freeman said. “I don’t want to lose the pain from that game. We are motivated by it. There’s times I’ve got to remind them of that pain. We’re going to use that. We’re going to be grateful for it.”
Now, Notre Dame will turn around and become Navy’s biggest cheerleaders—the more the Middies win, the better this blowout looks. But beyond that, the two schools have a long history of mutual respect. There is a reason why the players and coaches from both teams stood with each other for their respective alma maters after the game.
The Navy actually helped keep Notre Dame afloat as a university during and immediately after World War II. During Father Theodore Hesburgh’s 35-year tenure as president of Notre Dame, he declared that the football series would continue as long as Navy wanted it to. This was the 97th meeting, the most-played rivalry in Fighting Irish history.
It could end up being the first Navy game in a long time that boosts Notre Dame’s national standing. The CFP selection committee will have to weigh the merits of the Midshipmen, and also their self-destructive tendencies in this game. A 51–14 victory over a ranked team looks good on paper—but a plus-six turnover margin that was largely gifted to the Irish tells a big part of the story.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Notre Dame Takes Advantage of Navy’s Turnovers to Bolster College Football Playoff Résumé.
