SAN FRANCISCO — From a historical odds standpoint, the Mavericks’ Game 4 victory did little to improve their chances of pulling off a rally for the ages in these Western Conference finals.
Zero NBA teams have rallied to win a playoff series after trailing 0-3, in 146 attempts.
Rallying from 1-3, the predicament Dallas now faces, is only marginally less daunting: 13 teams have accomplished the feat in 270 chances. That’s 4.81%.
Mavericks forward Maxi Kleber, however, believes a less measurable factor is in play as Dallas again tries to prolong its season against Golden State in Thursday night’s Game 5 in Chase Center.
Psychology.
“I think the pressure is more on their side to win the games,” he said. “We have at this point nothing to lose. So we just go out and play free.”
It would be disingenuous to suggest that the series’ momentum shifted with Dallas’ Game 4 win, especially since the Warriors carved what had been a 29-point Mavericks lead to 8 with 3:23 left.
Here’s the thing, though, about Dallas’ potential to win Game 5 and, as Kleber suggests, apply more pressure: Granted Golden State is 8-0 in Chase Center this postseason, including 2-0 against the Mavericks, but it isn’t the house of horrors that Dallas confronted in the first and second rounds.
Not even close.
Utah had won 11 straight against Dallas in Vivint Arena before the Mavericks won Games 3 and 6 there. The Mavericks hadn’t won in Phoenix’s Footprint Center since 2019 before they won pressure-packed Game 7, resoundingly.
Chase Center? Dallas has won five of its last six regular-season games there, including a 19-point fourth-quarter comeback on Feb. 27.
The last time the Mavericks were in Chase Center, six days ago, they led 67-48 with 2:21 left in the first half and by 17 points early in the third quarter. Does that sound like a building, albeit dazzling in appearance, that the Mavericks will enter with trepidation come Thursday night?
“We come to win games,” Kleber said. “Game 2, we had a big lead. We should have won the game; we gave it away. Game 3, we didn’t shoot the ball well. We have the power to beat them. We just stay confident, that was one game. Now we’re just focused on the next game, nothing else. Everything else is in the past.
“We have no reason to be shy.”
After Game 4, Mavericks coach Jason Kidd, too, indicated that Dallas had gained a psychological edge.
It wasn’t merely that Dallas, after getting dominated in third quarters by a combined 31 points, outscored Golden State 37-23 in Game 4.
Or that the Mavericks finally outrebounded the Warriors, 45-42, although for the series they’ve still been pummeled by a 183-143 margin.
Or that after mustering 54 assists in the first three games, Dallas’ crisper ball-movement and much-improved shot-making resulted in 30 in Game 4.
To Kidd, the telltale is the manner in which the Mavericks finally put the Warriors on their heels defensively.
“It’s a matter about making shots,” Kidd said. “The biggest compliment we’ve gotten is they’ve got to play zone because they can’t play us one on one, right?
“This is a championship-DNA team. They’re giving you a compliment that they can’t guard you. It’s pretty cool. They’re winning the series, but we believe if we can continue to keep getting the shots that we got, if we make them, it puts pressure on them.”
Luka Doncic likewise said the B-word multiple times.
“We’re going to believe until the end,” he said.
Kleber said Kidd on several occasions during this five-week postseason run has asked: “Do you guys believe?”
“Obviously the answer is yes,” Kleber said. “He makes sure we do.”
The Mavericks are a long way from reminding anyone of the We Believe No. 8 seed Warriors of 2007 who toppled 67-win Dallas in the first round.
The Mavericks also must ward off the nagging feeling that this series probably at worst would be tied at 2-2 if not for their wretched 13-point third quarter in Game 2. After all, of the series’ 16 quarters, Dallas has won eight.
“Ain’t going to be nothing easy,” said Dorian Finney-Smith, whose 23 points in Game 4 were one shy of his combined output in the first three games.
“We want to do something special; be the first team to do something special. It’s going to be very hard, but we can do it.”
As the Mavericks tip off game No. 100, there’s no point in speculating about their chances in potential Games 101 and 102.
But given their history in Chase Center, and in difficult road environments in Salt Lake City and Phoenix, there’s a viable path to winning Game 5.
If they do win Thursday, that won’t put much of a dent in those 95.19% odds against them. Teams that trail series 3-2, historically speaking, only come back to win 16% of the time.
That perhaps is a conversation for another day. A conversation the Mavericks and their fans would love to have during Memorial Day weekend.
