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Supporters of Kamala Harris shouldn’t feel too confident about recent polls that put her ahead of Donald Trump, according to the president of one of the largest super political action committees (PAC) backing her.
Chauncey McLean, of Future Forward USA, told a panel hosted by the University of Chicago Institute of Politics that internal polling numbers are “much less rosy” than what the public sees.
“We have it tight as a tick, and pretty much across the board,” McLean said.
His comments came as the vice-president was due to be crowned as the party’s candidate at this week’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
Polling consolidated by FiveThirtyEight shows Harris with a nearly 3-point lead over Trump, RealClearPolitics has Harris leading by 1.5 points and Cook Political Report shows Harris has a less than 1-point lead.
Recent polls by The New York Times/Siena College, Emerson College and CBS/YouGov have affirmed that Harris is leading Trump by a minimal margin – even in some key swing states. Those numbers are a fairly significant change from just a month ago when Trump led Joe Biden by several points.
Biden’s exit from the 2024 race was in part due to his polling numbers, which suffered significantly after his faltering performance in the first election debate.
Since he dropped out and endorsed Harris, Democrats have seen an uptick in polling numbers, boosting their confidence in winning the election.
But McLean says Future Forward’s polling operation indicates the race is still extremely tight.
“Since the vice-president became the nominee, we talked to 375,000 Americans,” McLean said. “What you see in the public polls – you know, a large public poll is [only] 1,000 surveys.”
But Harris’s entrance into the 2024 race has opened up several pathways to victory that Biden did not necessarily have. That is thanks to newfound support from young people of color, McLean said.
But still, Harris will need to win one of three key swing states, Georgia, North Carolina or Pennsylvania, in order to win, Reuters reported.
McLean said Future Forward has at least $250m left to spend, which they plan on doing through a digital and television advertising campaign to begin Labor Day and go through Election Day.
So far, the super PAC has raised $134m in advancement of the Harris campaign, according to OpenSecrets.
