DESPITE both party’s denials, there was little difference between what Labour and the Conservatives were offering in the General Election, Professor John Curtice has said.
Speaking on the BBC as votes are counted across the UK, the polling guru said that the turnout was likely to be exceptionally low.
He said: “Well we don’t know whether it’s a contributing factor [to the final result] but I think there has been a widespread expectation that turnout would fall – and these first two results are at least consistent with that expectation and to that extent at least we may well discover that we’re heading towards one of the lower turnouts in General Elections in post-war electoral history and, you know, that’s what the polls are anticipating.”
As Curtice was speaking, only two seats had declared: Houghton and Sunderland South, and Blyth and Ashington. Both were won by Labour.
Curtice went on: “It’s what you would expect in an election in which the polls were suggesting it’s pretty clear who was going to win and where there wasn’t that much difference – despite both parties’ denials – not that much difference between Conservative and Labour in much of what they were offering the electorate.”
The early election results have seen little movement in Labour support, with the number of votes the party has won actually dropping in some areas.
However, Reform are seeing strong results, polling ahead of the Conservatives in Houghton and Sunderland South, pushing the Tories into third place.
Reform UK candidate Sam Woods-Brass received 11,668 votes to Conservative candidate Chris Burnicle’s 5514.
The exit poll by Ipsos UK for Sky News, the BBC and ITV News, said Reform UK have a likelihood of 99%-plus that Farage will win the seat in Clacton, Essex.
Reform has seen similar success on the second seat of the night, coming in second place in Blyth and Ashington with 10,857 votes, as Labour secured 20,030 votes and the Tories came third with 6121 votes.
It has been said that Reform’s wide but thin support would not facilitate their success in a first-past-the-post system and Farage has been vocal about the need for changes to the electoral system.
So, the early successes will bolster Reform’s confidence as Farage had previously said this election was only the “tip of the iceberg” for the start-up party as they build to bigger success in 2029.
