The Northern Territory's Chief Health Officer says the peak of its current COVID-19 outbreak may be here in just two weeks, urging people, until then, to socialise in small groups and take care when travelling.
Cases have been steadily climbing in the Territory since its borders opened on December 20, with a daily record of 625 new cases on Tuesday.
Hugh Heggie said that around 80 per cent of the Territory's confirmed COVID-19 infections were Omicron cases, with the other 20 per cent the Delta variant.
"Delta is trending down, and Omicron is trending up," Dr Heggie said on Wednesday.
"We are seeing the potential for our peak occurring in the first week or so of February and then a longer tail after that because, in some areas, they have low vaccination rates still."
What do Territorians need to consider as the NT climbs towards this anticipated "peak" in cases?
And what can we expect after the peak has passed?
We asked the experts.
How was the NT's potential 'peak' calculated?
Dr Heggie said the Territory's potential "peak" date had been estimated by NT health experts using epidemiological data and "complex calculations".
He said one factor experts considered was that the Territory had a transient population, with many residents travelling interstate over the Christmas period and newcomers expected to move to the NT this month.
Dr Heggie said the peak would coincide with when people were returning to the NT, which brought with it the risk of importing cases from other states.
Infectious diseases specialist Paul Griffin said people should take the projection with "a grain of salt" and not plan their lives around it.
Dr Griffin said the number of COVID-19 cases across Australia was likely to be under-reported, which meant data used to make calculations was "compromised" and, therefore, predictions were "fairly loose".
"It's really hard to predict the peak with any accuracy," he said.
"Many factors could easily push that [projected peak date] back and it could be sooner."
Dr Griffin said the Northern Territory would know it had passed its peak when there was a "sustained decline" in the rate of cases being reported.
Health advice as the 'peak' nears
Dr Heggie urged Territorians to keep their social circles small and to reconsider their need to travel over the next few months.
"You really need to consider your movements, who you mix with," Dr Heggie said.
Deakin University associate professor of epidemiology Hassan Vally added that, until people were fully vaccinated, with their booster shot as well, it was a good idea to hunker down at home, considering the increased risk.
"People are making their own decisions in terms of the level of risk they want to expose themselves too," Dr Vally said.
Dr Griffin urged people to do what they could to "flatten the curve", which would limit pressure on the hospital system.
He added that this meant frequent hand-washing, staying at home if you felt unwell, social distancing and avoiding "high-risk events", such as indoor events with lots of attendees.
"We do want people to not deliberately try to get infected, as some people have done in some parts of the country with so-called 'COVID parties'," he said.
What can Territory expect after the peak?
Dr Heggie said he anticipated "a longer tail" after cases peaked, which meant the decline would be slower than the climb.
Both Dr Griffin and Dr Vally agreed that COVID-19 numbers in the Northern Territory would not return to the handful of daily cases reported prior to its borders re-opening, even after the peak had been reached.
Dr Griffin said community transmission would not "stop" on the other side of the peak, although it would slow.
"There will be a steady stream of cases, most likely even after we've completely [passed] through this wave of current Omicron transmission," Dr Griffin said.
"We're not going to return to zero.
