Rail services across the North could be cut even further from Spring 2023, despite ‘levelling up' promises and passenger numbers bouncing back faster than the national average.
A paper tabled to northern leaders reveals that the latest Treasury funding package for operators could soon lead to some ‘hard choices’, meaning ‘it isn’t clear that there will be sufficient funding to continue to support all services included in next year’s plan’.
Any cuts from 2023 would come on top of a reduced timetable already planned from next December due to chronic capacity constraints through Castlefield.
Andy Burnham called the threatened cut ‘fundamentally unacceptable’, while politicians in Liverpool, Warrington, Yorkshire and Lincolnshire all expressed similar concerns, warning the move amounted to the ‘managed decline’ of the northern network post-pandemic.
There are also fears that the reduction in funding could lead to the loss of guards on trains or staff on stations.
The paper, drawn up by officials at Transport for the North and tabled to leaders at their latest meeting, says the indicative funding provided in autumn’s spending review means operators are now required to make ‘substantial savings to their costs’.
Nationally, services for future years are being drawn up on the basis of the timetable that was operating last month, it says - at which point services were only at around 85pc of pre-Covid levels in the North.
However rail companies have been seeking to incrementally return services, including a Northern service between Hull and Bridlington and a direct Transpennine Express service between Liverpool and Hull, both expected this year.
The paper highlights that across the North, passenger numbers have been returning faster than the national average.
“The potential for a long-term and sustained shift in working practices in the service-based economy of the London and South-East region are likely to change traditional commuter patterns,” it says.
“In contrast, the strength of the rail recovery in the North is indicative of the extent to which rail continues to be central to the North’s economy.”
Therefore ‘there is a strong argument for a level of funding that supports continued growth in rail serving the North of England’, it adds, noting that every £1 spent is estimated to provide a £4.30 economic return.
But reductions to Treasury rail allocations in the spending review - following a period in which the northern network was bailed out with more than £1bn during the pandemic - now meant 2023 and 2024 were set to be ‘particularly challenging’.
As a result, ‘hard choices’ may have to be made, it concludes.
Speaking to fellow northern leaders, Andy Burnham said he was ‘very worried about what this means’.
“It’s what this paper doesn’t say that worries me,” he said.
“We’ve been asked to accept - or we will be asked to accept - a downgraded timetable for December 2022 and this is talking about further budget cuts coming on top of that. And it says it’s going to particularly hit in years two and three, so 2023 onwards.”
Noting the view of officials that it wasn’t ‘clear’ there would be sufficient funding to support all services, he added: “What does that mean? What services are going to be lost here?”
There was ‘no way we should even be asked to consider’ further cuts to services, he said, adding: “It feels to me as though this is a plan for managed decline on the railways in the post-pandemic period.”
West Yorkshire mayor Tracy Brabin echoed that view, warning the pandemic was being used as cover for rail cuts.
What do you think? Have your say in our comments below
“Already we’re having cuts under the smokescreen of Covid, whereas in Leeds station, we are at the weekends 110% capacity of pre-Covid,” she said, adding that she would not ‘countenance any cut to station staff.
Liverpool’s Liam Robinson said his city region was ‘strongly concerned’ about the principle of cut rail services.
“We were promised an ambitious and growing rail network," he said. "Coming out of Covid, our patronage is higher comparatively than other parts of the country.
“Every pound we spend on the railways is worth £4.30.
“God, that’s a brilliant investment isn’t it? Surely we should be focusing on all those kind of aspects.”
He added that government should be looking at efficiencies in the cost of rolling stock, including a windfall tax on the firms leasing it to operators, a system he said meant old trains were being paid for three or four times over during their lifetime.
Lincolnshire’s representative, Conservative councillor Tom Smith, said the network serving his county was already at a ‘bare minimum’ and ‘barely usable’, meaning any further cuts would make it ‘unviable’.
“Where else can you get value for money like that, certainly in local government, or any sector like that?” he said of the cost-benefit of rail investment.
“I think that’s some of the best value for money figures I’ve ever seen. So to de-invest it is absolutely crazy.”
TfN agreed to formally raise its objections with government following the discussion.
The Department for Transport has been approached for comment.
