Afternoon summary
Michelle O’Neill, the Sinn Féin leader in Northern Ireland, is poised to become the first nationalist first minister at Stormont after the DUP said it would be lifting its boycott of power sharing. The DUP agreed to resume participation in the power sharing executive, which has been suspended for almost two years, on the basis of a deal agreed with the UK government to revise some of the post-Brexit trading rules that disadvantaged Northern Ireland. Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP leader, played down the significance of O’Neill becoming first minister (see 3.51pm), but it is bound to be seen as a historic moment for Northern Ireland, where the unionists have been the dominant political community for most of the last century and where Sinn Féin was for many years marginalised because of its links with the IRA. Donaldson also claimed the deal was a victory for his party, because it confounded critics who claimed the DUP would never be able to change the legal terms of the Windsor framework. (See 4.49pm.) Details of the deal have not yet been published, and it is possible that their release tomorrow will lead to claims that Donaldson has over-sold what has been achieved. But with Sinn Féin and other parties welcoming the prospect of Stormont being revised, Dublin and Brussels apparently relaxed about the Windsor framework being altered, and no significant figures from the DUP speaking out against the deal, the Northern Ireland executive does seem on course to return within days.
Updated
Donaldson says DUP has confounded critics who said it would never be able to achieve 'legal change' to Windsor framework
Here are some more quotes from what Sir Jeffrey Donaldson said in his news conference at Stormont this afternoon.
Donaldson, the DUP leader, said he had confounded critics who claimed his party would never be able to achieve legal changes to the Windsor framework. He said:
Those who said there will be no legal change, who were predicting things would fall short, I simply asked people to wait and see the outcome. Wait and see the evidence and judge for yourself what this deal does, what it delivers, the change that it secures. I believe we are now beginning to see on day one that delivery coming through.
He said the DUP had negotiated the removal of extra checks on goods coming from Britain to Northern Ireland and due to stay there. He said:
On checks, on goods, moving between Great Britain and Northern Ireland and staying within the UK, there will no longer be physical checks, identity checks, save where, as is normal in any part of the UK, there is a suspicion of smuggling, of criminal activity; that is the same for every part of the United Kingdom.
He said “supplementary” customs declarations would no longer be needed. He said:
On customs paperwork, customs declarations, supplementary declarations, will be gone and therefore we believe this represents a significant change.
And he said the “green lane”, a Windsor framework arrangement for goods going from Britain to Northern Ireland and not destined for Ireland, would go. He said:
As far as we are concerned, the green lane will go and be replaced by the UK internal market system that reflects the reality that Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom, that goods flowing within the United Kingdom, flow freely.
That was our core key objective and I believe what we have secured represents real change and everybody will be able to see it for themselves.
James Crisp from the Telegraph reported on this last week – although he suggested the the rebranding was partly cosmetic.
So offer to DUP, as I understand it, is as follows.
— James Crisp (@JamesCrisp6) January 26, 2024
Patriotic rebrand of WF Green Lane to “UK Internal Market Lane”.
All new laws to be screened to ensure they don’t have “significant adverse impact” on GB-NI trade.
Warm words promising to negotiate more cuts with EU
7/
So offer to DUP, as I understand it, is as follows.
Patriotic rebrand of WF Green Lane to “UK Internal Market Lane”.
All new laws to be screened to ensure they don’t have “significant adverse impact” on GB-NI trade.
Warm words promising to negotiate more cuts with EU
Donaldson suggested that the Northern Ireland executive could reform very soon, although he said this was dependent on the UK government bringing forward legislation.
He played down the significance of Northern Ireland having a Sinn Féin first minister. Asked how significant it was that people would be serving under a Sinn Féin FM, he replied:
The offices is a joint office [because first minister and deputy FM carry equal weight in decision making]. The DUP has in the past shared that joint office. We are democrats.
The electoral results are there. I wish it had been different, of course. Like any political party you want to win the elections. I hope that from a unionist point of view we are learning the lessons that divisions in unionism, especially at election time, do not win unionist seats.
He also said he hoped unionism would “get its act together” in future so there were more unionist MLAs at Stormont.
Updated
Downing Street has said that the draft update to the Windsor framework published today (see 4.03pm) is not the same as the deal to restore power sharing at Stormont.
Asked about the document published today, a No 10 spokesperson told journalists at the afternoon lobby briefing:
That is not part of this agreement. This is separate – this is an update on some separate work we have been working on with the European Commission.
This is a joint legal solution that will benefit Northern Ireland traders. But to be clear, this is a separate stream of work from the agreement that was discussed last night and that will be published tomorrow.
Asked to explain what the revisions to the framework mean, the spokesperson said:
This is a joint legal solution agreed with the European Commission. It will ensure Northern Ireland traders can benefit from the UK’s independent free trade policy when importing agri-food goods.
There are lot of technical details. It will mean that over 30,000 tonnes of lamb, beef and poultry from key FTA (free trade agreement) partners and other countries around the world will now be covered by the UK and not the EU’s tariff quota regime every year.
Updated
Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP leader, posted this comment on X on Raoul Ruparel’s thread. (See 4.03pm.)
This demonstrates that the naysayers are wrong. There will be legal changes. I asked people to wait and study the outcome rather than follow misinformed speculation. There is more to come. The @duponline is delivering real change. @GRobinsonDUP https://t.co/xZCRH9OAFk
— Jeffrey Donaldson MP (@J_Donaldson_MP) January 30, 2024
This demonstrates that the naysayers are wrong. There will be legal changes. I asked people to wait and study the outcome rather than follow misinformed speculation. There is more to come. The @duponline is delivering real change.
The UK government has not yet published a clear summary of its deal with the DUP. It says that this is coming tomorrow.
But it has published a draft decision from the withdrawal agreement joint committee, the UK-EU committee that oversees implementation of the agreement taking the UK out of the EU. And this sets out changes to the agreement that have been negotiated.
And here is commentary on the deal from Raoul Ruparel, who was immersed in Northern Ireland protocol issues when he worked in No 10 as Theresa May’s adviser on the EU. He has posted these on X.
🚨Something unexpected on NI🚨...new Joint Committee legal decision expanding 'not at risk' category to cover rest of world imports into NI. Definitely a win for DUP & UK. Also very firmly flies in face of those who said there would be no legal changes 1/ https://t.co/YNOlLl3WJU
— Raoul Ruparel (@RaoulRuparel) January 30, 2024
Something unexpected on NI🚨...new Joint Committee legal decision expanding ‘not at risk’ category to cover rest of world imports into NI. Definitely a win for DUP & UK. Also very firmly flies in face of those who said there would be no legal changes 1/
While EU won’t call it this, to me this reads as a legal change under existing Windsor Framework. Will change how green lane operates & allows NI to more firmly take advantage of UK FTAs. 2/
Credit to HMG team & DUP for pushing on this sort of thing. Lots said its impossible but will again help on margin to get Stormont restored which is crucial for NI. 3/
Updated
Donaldson plays down significance of NI having Sinn Féin first minster, saying they had equal power with deputy FM job
Q: How significant will it be having a Sinn Féin first minister?
Donaldson says it is a joint office (the first minister and deputy first minister have equal weight in decision making). He says Sinn Féin has held that joint office before. He says he wishes the DUP had done better at the elections, but he is a democrat, he says.
Q: Could the executive return by Saturday?
Donaldson says that depends on what happens, and when the government moves legislation.
He says he expects Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, to make a statement tomorrow.
Donaldson says there are some people who talked tough on this issue, but delivered nothing. The DUP has delivered, he claims.
Donaldson says 'green lane' system for goods going from GB to NI will go
Q: Are you really getting rid of all checks on goods going from Britain to Northern Ireland?
Donaldson says, on checks on goods moving from GB to NI and staying in the UK, there will no longer be checks, unless there is a suspicion of criminality.
On customs paperwork, he says supplementary declarations will be gone.
The “green lane” will go, and be replaced by the UK’s internal market system, he says.
Updated
Jeffrey Donaldson holds press conference
Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP leader, is holding a press conference at Stormont.
He says all those who said that he would not be able to secure a change in how the post-Brexit trade rules work in Northern Ireland will see that they are wrong when the deal is published.
After the deal is published, there should be legislation, he suggested.
And if the agreed timeline with the UK government is met, the institutions in Northern Ireland will reconvene.
He says the DUP and other parties have met with civil servants in Northern Ireland to discuss the resumption of power sharing, including what might happen with public sector pay.
And they have also discussed the priorities for the executive going ahead, he says.
Updated
Alliance leader Naomi Long says institutional reform at Stormont now 'essential'
The Alliance party, which is the third largest party in the Northern Ireland assembly and not aligned to either the nationalist or unionist community, has said that institutional reform at Stormont is essential following the two-year suspension of power sharing.
Naomi Long, the Alliance leader, said the sooner the institutions were reformed, the better.
But she said:
What is clear is that given the fragility of relationships, not just between the parties, but inside some parties, if we are going to have stable institutions, the government now needs to engage seriously on the issue of reform of these institutions.
They simply cannot withstand another collapse.
Stop-go government will not work and we have to address that issue.
She also posted this on X.
Mixed emotions today.
Good we might finally get to do the whole job we’re elected to do and try to repair some of the damage done, but the last 24 hours don’t bode well for long-term stability.
Institutional reform is essential: we just cannot sustain further chaos or collapse.
Mixed emotions today.
— Naomi Long MLA (@naomi_long) January 30, 2024
Good we might finally get to do the whole job we're elected to do and try to repair some of the damage done, but the last 24 hours don't bode well for long-term stability.
Institutional reform is essential: we just cannot sustain further chaos or collapse.
Telegraph could become ‘PR arm’ of UAE after proposed takeover, MPs warned
MPs have attacked the proposed UAE-backed takeover of the Telegraph newspapers, warning that it is impossible to “separate sheikh and state” and calling for further investigations to be launched before the deal “turns into a disaster for the government”. Mark Sweney has the story here.
Former DUP leader Edwin Poots claims 'significant portion of Northern Ireland protocol dismantled' under new deal
Edwin Poots, who was DUP leader for just three weeks in 2021 before being replaced by Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, told Radio 4’s the World at One that a significant part of the Northern Ireland protocol would be dismantled under the deal struck with the UK government.
He said that he had read the government’s (as yet unpublished) command paper setting out the details and he explained:
Essentially there’s a significant portion of the Northern Ireland protocol that’s been dismantled and the UK internal market between Great Britain and Northern Ireland has been restored, and the barriers and impediments to doing trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland have been removed.
There’ll be no checks and it’s for traders to register once. Once that registration is made, they will be able to bring goods from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. The only checks that will be on those goods that remain in Northern Ireland will be the normal criminality checks.
Updated
Here is a Guardian video with clips summarising the DUP announcement about accepting the UK government’s Windsor framework deal and resuming power sharing.
Rishi Sunak and his Irish counterpart, Leo Varadkar, have spoken today about the deal with the DUP. We have not had the No 10 readout yet, but a spokesperson for Varadkar said:
The taoiseach and prime minister welcomed the developments overnight, and both leaders said they hope this paves the way for the early restoration of the Northern Ireland executive and the assembly, and that north-south ministerial meetings will resume again.
They agreed to keep in touch over the coming period.
Updated
Here is Lisa O’Carroll’s explainer on what is likely to be in the government’s deal with the DUP.
And here is an extract.
What is in the deal?
Donaldson said it would end “dynamic alignment” whereby future changes in EU law would have to be observed in Northern Ireland.
Pending the deal’s publication on Wednesday, it appears that Sunak has offered to keep Great Britain (England, Wales and Scotland) aligned with European standards if the DUP returned to Stormont.
All new laws at Westminster would be checked to ensure they did not compromise unfettered trade with Northern Ireland, meaning no separate rules or labels for goods that remain in the region.
Does that mean the UK will remain closer to Brussels?
It appears that the deal is a dusting down of proposals Theresa May made in 2019 to align rules for Northern Ireland with those in the UK, thereby removing the need for what because known as the Brexit sea border.
This compromise was rejected by the Conservatives, whose policies were then shaped by convulsions about sovereignty, taking back control of British law and a clean-break Brexit.
How can Sunak sell this?
He can argue that the alignment with EU law is limited and applies to goods and farm produce and not wider issues such as the rule of law and other national competencies such as health, education, security, justice.
Updated
Graeme Wearden is covering reaction to the IMF’s warning against tax cuts in the budget (see 2.12pm) on his business live blog.
IMF warns Jeremy Hunt against tax cuts in budget
The International Monetary Fund has issued a strong warning to Jeremy Hunt against cutting taxes in his budget in March, stressing the need to boost vital areas of public spending instead, Larry Elliott reports.
Larry says:
In updated forecasts for the UK and the rest of the global economy, the Washington-based fund doubted whether the widely anticipated tax cuts would be possible without extra borrowing or post-election spending cuts.
The IMF said the chancellor should be focusing on repairing the public finances after the damage caused by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine in order to meet growing spending pressures.
An IMF spokesperson said: “Preserving high-quality public services and undertaking critical public investments to boost growth and achieve the net zero targets, will imply higher spending needs over the medium term than are currently reflected in the government’s budget plans.
“Accommodating these needs, while assuredly stabilising the debt/GDP ratio, will already require generating additional high-quality fiscal savings, including on the tax side.”
Hunt is expected to cut income tax in the budget, but the IMF called on the chancellor to increase carbon and property taxes, take steps to eliminate loopholes in the taxation of wealth and income, and reform the pensions triple lock. “It is in this context that [IMF] staff advises against further tax cuts,” the IMF said.
And here is the full story.
Updated
It is still not clear how the UK government has managed to negotiate changes to the Windsor framework, and the post-Brexit trading rules for Northern Ireland, that a) persuade the DUP something significant has changed (see 9.16am), but also b) satisfy the EU that fundamentally the existing deal has not been undermined (see 1.51pm).
In a series of posts on X, John Campbell, the BBC’s economics and business editor in Northern Ireland, explains how this circle may be squared.
Most interesting line in Jeffrey Donaldson’s interview was about the pipe or conduit by which EU law arrives in NI - Sec 7a of Withdrawal Agreement. He said 7a will be amended so dynamic alignment will ‘come to an end’. Sounds dramatic but EU won’t have just casually said ‘fine’
— JPCampbellBiz (@JP_Biz) January 30, 2024
Wonder if this @FactCheckNI piece has a clue - does Sec 26 of NI Act get more prominent role https://t.co/xgIoktvUhT
— JPCampbellBiz (@JP_Biz) January 30, 2024
The (abandoned) Truss Protocol Bill was all about partially disapplying & qualifying 7a with all the proposed practical changes flowing from that.
— JPCampbellBiz (@JP_Biz) January 30, 2024
Campbell also points out that a mechanism is in place to allow minor changes to be made to the Windsor framework without the need for a full renegotiation.
Reminder: Joint Ctte can make minor changes to Windsor Framework https://t.co/AbFM7U8SAb
— JPCampbellBiz (@JP_Biz) January 30, 2024
The European Commission’s spokesperson, Daniel Ferrie, said this morning that the commission would respond to the new Northern Ireland deal when it is published. These are from RTÉ’s Paul Cunningham.
Reax to DUP deal, EU Commission @DanielFerrie says:
— Paul Cunningham (@RTENewsPaulC) January 30, 2024
"We understand the UK Government will soon publish the documents related to this deal, so we will examine those texts when the time comes..." 1/2 @rtenews
Reax to DUP deal, EU Commission @DanielFerrie says:
“We understand the UK Government will soon publish the documents related to this deal, so we will examine those texts when the time comes …”
"We're not going to now provide a running commentary on the various different elements in the press. More broadly, and as we've said before, we expect the UK Government to fulfill its obligations under the framework as it has been doing."
— Paul Cunningham (@RTENewsPaulC) January 30, 2024
“We’re not going to now provide a running commentary on the various different elements in the press. More broadly, and as we’ve said before, we expect the UK Government to fulfil its obligations under the framework as it has been doing.”
Updated
Sinn Féin welcomes UK government's deal with DUP, saying changes it makes acceptable to EU and Dublin
Sinn Féin has welcomed the DUP’s decision to accept the deal offered by the UK government designed to restore power sharing. That is what Mary Lou McDonald, the party’s president (and leader of the opposition in the Irish parliament) and Michelle O’Neill, the party’s vice-president and its leader in Northern Ireland, where she is first minister designate, said at a news conference at Stormont. Here are the top lines.
McDonald said that Sinn Féin was “incredibly postive” about the prospects for Northern Ireland as a result of the deal. And O’Neill said, although there was a lot of work to do, with Stormont sitting again, this could happen. She said:
I do think it is a day of optimism and some hope for the wider public.
Our public services are stretched to the limit, our public-sector workers have been forced out on to the picket lines.
I want to be in position because I want to make a difference to people’s lives, I want to stand up and fight back against this Tory austerity agenda that has hurt our public services so much over the last 13 years.
We have a lot of hard work ahead of us, a slog ahead of us, but collectively we can do better for the people we serve.
McDonald said that the fact that a Sinn Féin leader was about to become first minister was a sign of “the extent of change” that has taken place across Ireland. She said:
[This] will be a moment of very great significance; not simply because we haven’t had government for so long but because it will be the first time that we will have a Sinn Féin first minister, a nationalist first minister.
So, a mark of the extent of change that has occurred in the north and indeed right across Ireland.
O’Neill and McDonald said taking on “Tory austerity” would be a priority for the new executive.
McDonald said that she was satisfied that the new deal would not undermine the UK’s existing agreement with Brussels on the Windsor framework. She said:
We’ve obviously been in close contact with both governments, and indeed with Brussels. We are satisfied that no part of the Good Friday agreement has been undermined or damaged. And we also know that Brussels, Dublin, all parties, are satisfied that what has been agreed stays between the hedges of the needs of Brussels and the European market, and also the concerns that the DUP expressed.
She said her understanding was that the actual deal was concluded some time ago. (She was implying that it took the DUP time to come round to accepting the deal.)
Updated
New visa rule to stop care workers bringing dependants to UK coming into force on 11 March, Home Office says
New rules banning overseas care workers coming to the UK from using their visas to bring dependants with them are going to come into force on 11 March, the Home Office has announced.
In a news release giving details of when changes that have already been announced will be implemented, it says the measures include:
Reforms that will restrict care workers from bringing dependants and require care providers to register with the Care Quality Commission if they are sponsoring migrants, which will come into force on 11 March.
The laying of immigration rules, which will include the removal of the 20% going rate discount for occupations on the shortage occupation list on 14 March.
A new increase to the minimum salary required for those arriving on the Skilled Worker visa, from £26,200 to £38,700, on 4 April.
Increasing the minimum income requirement threshold in stages for family visas, starting at £29,000 from 11 April.
Updated
At the Downing Street lobby briefing this morning the PM’s spokesperson declined to confirm DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson’s claim that the new deal would result in “zero checks, zero customs paperwork” on goods moving within the United Kingdom. Asked about this, the spokesperson said:
I think on all these questions it would not be helpful at this stage to get into the detail. There are further processes that must be undertaken, there are discussions between the Northern Ireland parties taking place today.
We will publish the full series of measures once that deal has been finalised and parliament will be updated as well.
Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, gave the same answer at his press conference earlier. (See 12.39am.)
Updated
Attorney general Victoria Prentis orders review of CPS's handling of Nottingham attacks prosecution
Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, has ordered a review of the Crown Prosecution Service’s handling of the prosecution of Valdo Calocane, the man who killed three people and attempted to kill three others in Nottingham.
In a news release, Prentis’s office said:
This will include looking at CPS’s decision to accept Valdo Calocane’s guilty pleas to manslaughter on the basis of diminished responsibility and whether the CPS met its duties to consult with families ahead of accepting pleas.
Updated
No 10 says legal migration must fall quickly as ONS projects net migration to rise by 6m over next 15 years
The Office for National Statistics has released a projection today saying the UK population could reach nearly 74 million by 2036, up from the latest estimate of 67 million, with net migration adding around 6 million people.
Over the 15 years between mid-2021 and mid-2036, the UK population is projected to grow by 6.6 million people.
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 30, 2024
This includes 541,000 more births than deaths and international net migration of 6.1 million people. pic.twitter.com/MvQLfWi1Iq
These figures are partly based on the ONS’s assumption that net migration will fall towards the end of the decade, but that it is most likely to remain above 300,000 per year, and to continue at that level into the mid 2030s.
Suella Braverman, the Conservative former home secretary, responded to the figures by restating her call for a cap on overall immigration numbers.
I campaigned for Brexit to reduce migration.
These numbers are too high, placing pressure on schools, the NHS & housing.
Recent government measures will help a bit but they’re very late.
We need a cap on overall numbers so we can hold government to account & fix this problem
I campaigned for Brexit to reduce migration.
— Suella Braverman MP (@SuellaBraverman) January 30, 2024
These numbers are too high, placing pressure on schools, the NHS & housing.
Recent government measures will help a bit but they’re very late.
We need a cap on overall numbers so we can hold government to account & fix this problem https://t.co/v4mm18ohHM
At the morning lobby briefing, asked if Rishi Sunak agreed with Braverman, the PM’s spokesperson did not back calls for an overall cap on numbers, but said legal migration “must come down quickly”. He said:
We’ve set out the biggest-ever reduction in legal migration, we retain the ability to go further. We do think it is something that the public wants us to do.
The prime minister is certainly of the view that legal migration has been too high – it must come down, and it must come down quickly.
Updated
Northern Ireland to get more than £3bn if DUP deal leads to resumption of power sharing, Heaton-Harris says
Here is a summary of the main points from Chris Heaton-Harris’s press conference at Westminster.
Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said that he would publish details of the deal with the DUP tomorrow and that he expected it to lead to the resumption of power sharing at Stormont. He said:
I will tomorrow publish the details of the proposals we have made to secure Northern Ireland’s place in the UK internal market and to strengthen the union. I believe that all the conditions are now in place for the assembly to return.
He paid tribute to the DUP and its leader, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, saying that Donaldson’s main motive was to secure Northern Ireland’s place in the union. He said:
I welcome the very significant step from Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the step he took last night. I’m very grateful to Sir Jeffrey and his colleagues for the leadership that he and they have displayed, and the constructive nature of our dialogue over the past few months.
Throughout our discussions, it has never been in doubt that Sir Jeffrey’s prime concern was to secure and reinforce Northern Ireland’s place in the union.
I would also like to thank the other political parties in Northern Ireland for the patience they have shown during this time.
He said the financial package for Northern Ireland worth more than £3bn was still on the table for an incoming executive to spend.
He refused to confirm Donaldson’s claim that, under the deal, there would be no checks on goods going from Britain to Northern Ireland and remaining there. (See 9.16am.) Asked about this, he said journalists would have to wait until the deal was published. But he had achieved “a vast array of decent improvements to make sure our internal market works properly, as it should do”, he said.
He said the main parties in Northern Ireland entitled to form a power-sharing executive would be meeting today to discuss the deal.
He claimed the deal with the DUP involved “significant changes”, but he refused to say what they were. Asked what had changed, he said:
There are some significant changes but you will have to wait until the all-party talks are finalised. When I publish the deal in parliament, everyone will see what it is.
He said the deal did not affect “in any shape or form” Britain’s ability to diverge from UK rules as a result of Brexit.
He said he did not think the Windsor framework would have to be renegotiated as a result of this deal.
Updated
Deal with DUP won't require Windsor framework to be renegotiated with EU, says Heaton-Harris
Q: Was the EU consulted on this?
Heaton-Harris said he spoke to the EU regularly about all sorts of things.
Q: Will the Windsor framework have to be renegotiated?
“I don’t believe so,” Heaton-Harris said.
Updated
Heaton-Harris said, under the deal, new money for Northern Ireland would be available to the incoming executive. They would be able to use that to address public sector pay.
Northern Ireland should expect 'significant changes', says UK minister
Q: What has changed? Will there be fewer checks? Or has nothing really changed?
Heaton-Harris said there had been “significant changes”. People will see them when they are published, he said.
The government has been talking to the DUP about this for months, he said.
He said the other parties in Northern Ireland are now being briefed on the details.
Updated
Chris Heaton-Harris says details of deals with DUP to be published tomorrow
Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, has been holding a press conference at Westminster, outside the Houses of Parliament.
He said he planned to publish the details of the deals tomorrow.
Sunak claims he is 'confident' about his election chances because Britain has 'turned a corner'
Q: When will the election take place? And can you win?
Sunak says he has said what he has said about timing.
He says the country has gone through a tough time.
But he really believes the country has “turned a corner” and his plan is working.
Q: So when will it be?
Sunak says he has addressed that.
But, by tomorrow, everyone will have received the benefit of the tax cut that came into force in January.
Q: Are you feeling confident?
“I am, absolutely,” Sunak says.
And that was it.
I’ll run this block under the headline “Sunak claims he is ‘confident’ about his election chances because Britain has ‘turned a corner’”, but I trust readers don’t need reminding that sometimes politicians don’t always tell the truth (especially when they are making election predictions).
Sunak says government will ensure relatives of victims of Nottingham attacks get answers they're seeking
Q: Will you order a public inquiry into the Nottingham attacks?
Sunak says what happened was unimaginable. He says he has spent some time with the relatives of the victims. Their questions are reasonable. He has said the government will ensure that they get those answers. There are independent inquiries into different services. When the findings of those inquiries come back, the government will decide if a further inquiry is needed.
UPDATE: Sunak said:
What [the relatives] expressed to me are a bunch of questions about what’s happened that they have.
How did the NHS operate? Was mental health properly checked? How was the police investigation conducted? How was the Crown Prosecution Service operating and interacting with them? I think those are all perfectly reasonable questions.
What I said to them is that we will get the answers. That’s what they deserve. That’s what I’ve committed to.
We’ve set up investigations, independent ones, into all those areas I mentioned. The NHS, the Crown Prosecution Service, the police forces.
So, they’re all going to be looked at independently so we can get those answers. That’s going to happen promptly and thoroughly and effectively, as quickly as possible.
Once we hear back from that, then we can sit down with them and decide if there are more questions that need answering. Is the inquiry then the next logical step?
Updated
The ITV Rishi Sunak interview is starting.
Q: You have just eaten. Was that your first food since the fast?
No, says Sunak. He had already had a pastry.
He says he tries to have a day of fasting on Mondays – not totally nothing, but “largely nothing”.
He loves sugary things, he says. He does not exercise as much as he used to. So he does this.
Q: You want to stop disposable vapes being sold? When will that happen?
Sunak says parents and teachers worry about the rise in children vaping. No one knows the long-term health impacts. The government will ban disposable vapes, stop vapes being sold in flavours aimed at children, and restrict how they are displayed.
Q: But will this stop adults getting vapes?
Sunak says there is a balance. He thinks the government has got it right. Disposable vapes are overwhelmingly the ones children use. But the government supports adults vaping as an alternative to smoking.
Q: It is hard to get an appointment with a GP.
Sunak says, from tomorrow, people will be able to go to pharmacists for appointments relating to conditions like sore throats.
Q: But people need GP appointments. And it is so frustrating not being able to get an appointment.
Sunak says he wants people to have a choice.
Pharmacists are “incredibly highly trained”, he says. That is why they will be able to offer treatment for seven common ailments.
On GPs, he says the government is ensuring GP surgeries have the latest telephone systems. That will make a difference to how they handle calls.
Q: Why don’t we pay junior doctors more?
Sunak says all health staff have been offered more money, based on independent recommendations.
He says it was “disappointing” some of these offers were rejected.
But there is “no magic money tree”, he says.
Updated
What happens next to Rwanda bill?
A reader asks:
This seems to be one of those times when a piece of parliamentary news falls off the bottom of the radar with no trace. After your evening summary there’s been no news of the 2nd reading of the Rwanda bill. I finally found the Hansard report which ends “that the bill be committed to a committee of the full house”. So what does this mean in practice? They can add amendments? Do these then have to be voted on by whole House of Ls? Is there a set end date? Must the Commons wait? Cd gov just decide to send a plain load of refugees in the meantime to Rwanda?
The House of Lords voted to give the second reading of the Rwanda bill at 9.30am.
The Lib Dems forced a vote on an amendment to block the bill, but it was easily defeated. The Lords never normally votes on bills at second reading, and it only votes down bills at this point very rarely (just three times this century). Labour is opposed to the bill, but it did not vote with the Lib Dems because it accepts the convention that the Lords is there to revise bills passed by the Commons, not to reject them, as its spokesperson explained in the debate yesterday.
Here is the division list naming the handful of Labour and crossbench peers who voted with the Lib Dems for the blocking amendment.
The bill will now go to a committee of the whole house, which means that all peers can participate in the line-by-line debate on the bill. They will debate amendments, and some will almost certainly be passed. There will then be a vote at third reading. At that point peers could again, in theory, throw out the whole bill. But they won’t’; they’ll send it back to the Commons amended.
There will be debates in February but the report stage, when most votes take place, is not due to start until March. The third reading debate is provisionally scheduled for 12 March.
The government cannot sent refugees to Rwanda until the bill becomes law because the supreme court has ruled that unlawful.
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Rishi Sunak is in the ITV’s This Morning studio. He is being interviewed by Rylan Clark and Rochelle Humes.
As he arrives, some cooking is going on. ‘We know you’re fasting,” Clarke says. But Sunak insists his weekly fast is over.
There is now an ad break before the interview proper starts.
Rishi Sunak is due on ITV’s This Morning shortly. At the moment the presenters are talking about whether or not is acceptable to wee in the countryside. One of them suggests the PM might have the answer when he turns out. It might not be quite the interview he was expecting …
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Minister announces plan to restrict social housing to those with 10-year connection to UK, and two-year connection to local area
People with “close connections” to the UK and their local area are to be favoured for social housing in England under a new government consultation, PA Media reports. PA says:
Applicants will be required to demonstrate a connection to the UK for at least 10 years and their local area for at least two years in an “overhaul” of the system.
Those with unspent criminal convictions or certain civil sanctions for antisocial behaviour could be banned from social housing for up to five years.
People who “repeatedly make their neighbours’ lives hell” through antisocial behaviour also face being evicted under a “three strikes and you’re out” policy.
Terrorists with certain convictions could also be blocked from living in social homes.
New social tenants on high incomes would also no longer qualify. The salary threshold is yet to be determined and existing tenants would not be affected.
A consultation will run until 26 March and can be accessed through an online survey.
The government has suggested some of the measures may be implemented by secondary legislation, which would mean they do not require a vote in parliament.
As this briefing from the House of Commons library says, most local authorities in England already have requirements saying people applying for council or housing association homes must have lived in the area for a certain amount of time.
Last week, after the Guardian reported that this announcement was imminent, 16 leaders from the social housing sector signed an open letter saying that this move could increase homelessness and that what was really needed was just more social housing. They said:
Social housing is designed to support those in the greatest need. Government data shows that 90% of new social housing lettings go to UK nationals, with long waiting lists in all areas. Imposing extended qualification periods before people can even get on the housing register is likely to force more people into homelessness. If the government’s main concern is to increase the availability of social lettings, it could achieve this far more effectively by building more social housing.
In an interview this morning Lee Rowley, the housing minister, was asked if refugees could be barred from social housing under the new plans. He said there was a recognition there “will be certain scenarios where there are exemptions”, giving the example of the Afghan resettlement schemes.
Pressed on whether that could change, he said: “Well, if the state has an obligation to house people that will continue, that’s part of a different set of rules to make sure that people are not homeless.”
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On Sky News this morning Sam Coates had a good explanation of why the DUP decision to accept the deal on offer from the UK government may not be the end of the story.
Not all smiles and rainbows after DUP deal to restore devolution at #Stormont
— Kay Burley (@KayBurley) January 30, 2024
Our Deputy Political Editor @SamCoatesSky has the latest#KayBurley FC pic.twitter.com/0kGHvJEtvX
On X Farrukh has written up his key quote.
Sam Coates, “The British government are trying something quite hard:
“They’re trying to tell the DUP that something has changed about the way Britain relates to NI and they’re trying to get rid of checks.
“They’re trying to tell the EU that nothing has changed”
“And they’re trying to tell the Brexiters that everything is fine and this doesn’t reflect the UK’s ability to embrace Brexit freedoms”
“Not all three things can be true. And everybody inside government knows it”
UPDATE: Coates has now posted this on X summing up his analysis.
NI deal?
3 groups need to be happy with the letter of the new law
- DUP who haven’t seen it yet
- EU which hasn’t seen it yet
- Brexiteers who were being “handled” by government at the weekend to stop them objecting
It’s only done when it’s done
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Deal with DUP won't stop Britain diverging from EU law, says Northern Ireland minister Steve Baker
It has been reported that the changes to the way the Windsor framework operates proposed as part of the deal to get the DUP to resume power sharing will limit the scope for Britain to diverge from EU laws. (Northern Ireland in effect remains in the EU’s single market, and the more Britain diverges from single market rules, the stronger the case for checks on goods going from Britain to Northern Ireland, where they can easily enter the EU because there are no controls at the Northern Ireland/Ireland border.)
But this morning Steve Baker, a Northern Ireland minister, has insisted that the deal will not stop Britain diverging from single market rules. He has posted these on X.
🤝I welcome this news and I look forward to fulfilling our side of the deal.
— Rt Hon Steve Baker MP FRSA 🗽 (@SteveBakerFRSA) January 30, 2024
❗️For the record there are no commitments of any kind as part of this deal to align GB with EU law; prevent GB from diverging from any retained EU law; or increase alignment in Northern Ireland beyond… https://t.co/bK3TuNNexR
I welcome this news and I look forward to fulfilling our side of the deal.
For the record there are no commitments of any kind as part of this deal to align GB with EU law; prevent GB from diverging from any retained EU law; or increase alignment in Northern Ireland beyond the strictly limited scope Parliament has approved - which is itself subject to democratic consent and safeguards.
And for the avoidance of doubt, there is no legal mechanism to prevent divergence or force alignment across the whole of the UK.
Ministers retain full freedom to diverge from retained EU law.
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This is from Michelle O’Neill, the Sinn Féin leader in Northern Ireland and first minister-designate in the power-sharing executive.
I welcome the public declaration by DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson that power-sharing will now be restored.
The parties will come together later today. We have much to do to confront the challenges facing our public services, workers and families which require urgent action.
I welcome the public declaration by DUP Leader Jeffrey Donaldson that power-sharing will now be restored.
— Michelle O’Neill (@moneillsf) January 30, 2024
The parties will come together later today. We have much to do to confront the challenges facing our public services, workers and families which require urgent action.
Some critics of the DUP believe its opposition to power sharing was primarily motivated by its determination not to have a Sinn Féin first minister in Northern Ireland for the first time, although the DUP has denied this.
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Irish PM says he has not seen 'fine detail' of deal with DUP and wants assurance it won't undermine Windsor framework
The taoiseach (Irish PM), Leo Varadkar, has welcomed the news that the DUP is willing to resume power sharing in Northern Ireland, while saying he has not seen the “fine detail” of it yet.
Speaking this morning ahead of a meeting of his cabinet, he said that he wanted to be sure that the deal would not undermine the Windsor framework (the revised version of the Northern Ireland protocol, negotiated by London and the EU), but that assumed it wouldn’t.
He told reporters:
At the outset, I want to welcome the news from Co Down that came in the early hours of this morning, news that the DUP is willing to re-enter the power-sharing executive in Northern Ireland.
That’s really important because it means that devolved democratic government can be restored in Northern Ireland and the executive can get down to the hard work of dealing with some of the everyday problems that people face north of the border …
I hope to speak to the prime minister later on today to discuss matters a little bit further.
I should say that while there have been consultations between the European Commission, the Irish government and the British government from the last number of months, we haven’t seen the fine detail of what’s been agreed just yet.
So obviously we’ll need to see that and and be confident that it doesn’t have any negative consequences for the Windsor framework or for the Good Friday agreement.
I don’t anticipate that it does but we have to see the exact detail of that first.
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UK will consider recognising Palestinian state, says David Cameron
David Cameron, the foreign secretary, has said that Britain will consider recognising a Palestinian state as part of concerted efforts to bring about an “irreversible” peace settlement. Ben Quinn has the story.
Here is Archie Bland’s explainer on the Northern Ireland deal from his First Edition briefing.
And here is his post on what happens next.
There is an 8 February legislative deadline for forming an administration at Stormont. Sinn Féin’s leader, Mary Lou McDonald, expressed optimism that that could now be met, and said that “Sinn Féin will now engage with the parties and both governments to ensure we now all press on without delay”.
The deal underpinning the DUP’s decision is yet to be published and will be examined by Conservative MPs for any sign that it weakens the UK’s ability to diverge from EU rules. But it is expected to be passed in Westminster. Meanwhile, there may be more expressions of opposition from unionist hardliners in the days ahead – and there is at least some risk of a party split within the DUP if those concerns cannot be allayed.
Nonetheless, [the Northern Ireland secretary, Chirs] Heaton-Harris expressed optimism that the assembly will soon return, and get Stormont back to the business of governing. “The parties entitled to form an executive are meeting tomorrow to discuss these matters,” Heaton-Harris said. “I hope to be able to finalise this deal with the political parties as soon as possible.”
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Northern Ireland will no longer automatically have to follow EU laws under deal to restore power sharing, DUP leader says
Good morning. Rail strikes are still going on in England, but in one part of the UK a long-running “strike” by key public sector workers seems about to come to an end. DUP MLAs (members of the legislative assembly) have been boycotting power sharing at Stormont for almost two years now. But, following a long and difficult party meeting in private last night (or not quite private – someone was leaking details to loyalist blogger Jamie Bryson, who was tweeting the proceedings in real time), the party is set to resume power sharing after accepting the compromise offer put on the table by the UK government.
The DUP were angry about the Northern Ireland protocol, and the modified version negotiated by Rishi Sunak last year, the Windsor protocol. The DUP supported Brexit, but they were angry about the protocol, and the framework, imposing post-Brexit trading rules affecting goods going from Britain to Northern Ireland. As a result of their two-year Stormont boycott, they have secured some changes to the framework and, as is standard in London negotiations with the Stormont parties, a large wodge of cash for Northern Ireland.
Rory Carroll has the details here.
The UK government has not yet published details of what changes it will make to the framework, but this is how Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP leader, explained what’s on offer.
[The new deal] will remove checks for goods moving within the UK and remaining in Northern Ireland and will end Northern Ireland automatically following future EU laws.
There will be legislation to provide new legal and practical protections for the Acts of Union and which guarantees unfettered access for Northern Ireland businesses to the rest of the United Kingdom.
In the coming days, in addition to the publication of the details of the new package of proposals, the UK Government will be required to deliver on the legislative commitments they have made to us.
Donaldson also said there was cross-party support for the deal, meaning that the election of a Labour government would not lead to it being reversed. He said:
Regardless of who forms the next UK government, these agreed measures will be taken forward beyond the forthcoming general election.
Here is the agenda for the day.
Morning: Rishi Sunak chairs cabinet.
10am: Kate Forbes, the Scottish government’s former finance secretary, gives evidence to the UK Covid inquiry in Edinburgh. She will be followed by John Swinney, the former deputy first minister.
11am: Sunak is due to be interviewed on ITV’s This Morning.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
11.30am: Andrew Mitchell, the development minister and deputy foreign secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
2.30pm: Judge Thomas Teague KC, the chief coroner for England and Wales, gives evidence to the Commons justice committee.
And David Cameron, the foreign secretary, is in Oman, where he is due to give a speech.
If you want to contact me, do try the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a laptop or a desktop. This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting, too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line; privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate); or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.
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