After a stellar quarter century, overseas investment in the Northern Ireland economy could create 33,000 more jobs in the next 10 years if the province can demonstrate it is “investor friendly” and has political stability.
That’s according to new research from trade and investment advisory OCO Global which said the province is primed to build on the progress it has made in the 25 years since the Good Friday Agreement if it can make the most of the international goodwill which currently exists and the benefits which dual market access to the UK and European Union offers.
Under its most positive forecasts, it also said overseas visitor numbers could jump to 5.7 million from 3 million currently while air route capacity could grow to 12 million passengers a year.
In a report to mark the signing of the agreement, the advisory said there is huge potential for the province in the coming years.
“Doubling down on the commitments and shared island dimension of the GFA enhanced by a unique dual market access proposition via the Northern Ireland Protocol/Windsor Framework could again accelerate the size and prosperity of the Northern economy, not in 25 years but in 10 years.”
Its forecast comes after it revealed economic output has more than doubled since 1998, climbing to £43.7 billion currently from £19.8 billion in 1998. In per capita terms, GDP has increased to £25,575 from £13,391 over the same period, one of the largest improvements of any UK region.
It said the economy has been transformed by outside investment, trade, tourism and investment in infrastructure. The economic boost as increased prosperity, life expectancy and attracted new residents to Northern Ireland.
Notably, the percentage of people claiming good health has increased to 79% of the population from 70% in 1998 while there is also a more diverse population with 5% of residents now born outside Northern Ireland compared to just 1.8%.
“Clearly, not everyone has felt these benefits to the same degree and we have far too many communities still living in deprivation, but the best way to address these problems is to keep building prosperity whilst ensuring that we give people the means to access the opportunities growth brings,” Mark O’Connell, Chair of OCO Global, said. “The Good Friday Agreement’s anniversary will focus the world’s attention on Northern Ireland; it is a one-off opportunity to demonstrate that we are investor friendly and, vitally, have political stability.
“There’s a lot of goodwill internationally for Northern Ireland, let’s ensure we make the most of if.”
One of the biggest changes in the economy over the last 25 years has been the shift from a reliance on the public to the private sector, the report said, while the makeup of the largest employers has also changed significantly, as below:
