The UK's independent Committee on Climate Change has said that “stringent tests” must be applied to any new North Sea oil and gas exploration licences - but stopped short of stating they could not be issued.
New drilling would not reduce energy bills for UK consumers, the committee found, and its chair - former Conservative environment secretary Lord Deben - said he would “favour” a moratorium on North Sea exploration.
Refusing new licences would “send a clear signal to investors and consumers that the UK is committed” to its climate goals, he said, helping to “strengthen climate ambition internationally”.
But the committee, which is the statutory adviser to the government on its net zero goals, concluded that as it could not establish clearly whether new exploration would significantly increase greenhouse gas emissions globally - and as considering the UK’s energy security went beyond its remit - any decision on new licences must be taken by MPs.
“Weighing these advantages is an inherently political decision, which goes beyond climate policy and sits rightly with government, not with my committee,” wrote Deben, in a letter to Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng.
He also made clear that producing more North Sea oil and gas would do little or nothing to help UK consumers cope with high energy prices. “Any increases in UK extraction of oil and gas would have, at most, a marginal effect on the prices faced by UK consumers in future,” Deben wrote.
Despite these warnings, the committee’s conclusion is likely to boost UK Government plans to license new oil and gas fields in the North Sea.
Rosie Rogers, head of oil and gas transition for Greenpeace UK, responded: “Anyone who’s read this advice and thinks the North Sea’s future lies in oil and gas is utterly deluded, because it will take decades and won’t ease energy bills.
“While this letter is addressed to the Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, Chancellor Rishi Sunak needs to take on board this evidence-based analysis, stop hoping to resurrect a declining fossil fuel industry, and instead support the real solutions to the energy crisis as we approach the Spring Statement.
“The future of the North Sea is in renewables - our economy, our energy security and our climate depends on it.”
The committee’s advice that climate tests should be applied to licences that have already been issued - such as that to the Cambo oilfield - was welcomed by environmental campaigners.
Danny Gross, campaign officer at Friends of the Earth, said: “It’s reassuring that the government’s plan to apply climate tests only to new licensing rounds is totally wrong in the committee’s view.
“This loophole would allow dozens of carbon-intensive projects that have already been licensed, but not yet approved, to escape these tests.”
The government is currently consulting on a new “climate checkpoint” system that would require any new oil and gas licences to pass a series of tests on their environmental impact.
Kwarteng is expected to review at least six applications for new drilling licences in the North Sea this year, after a similar number were approved last year.
A Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy spokesperson said: “There will continue to be ongoing demand for oil and gas over the coming decades as we transition to cleaner and cheaper forms of energy generated in this country.
“Turning off North Sea gas overnight would put energy security, British jobs and industries at risk and we would be more dependent on foreign imports - we welcome the committee’s acknowledgment that carbon budgets can still be met if new oil and gas fields are developed in the UK.”
The committee also emphasised the role of insulation and renewable energy in cutting energy bills.
Scrapped housebuilding regulations would reduce energy bills by around £40, and if the 2030 target for offshore wind had been brought forward sooner, consumers would be about £100 a year better off.
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