RALEIGH, N.C. — Recent polling results seem to be putting Democrats on notice that Rep. Ted Budd has enough support to pull off a win in the U.S. Senate race in North Carolina.
The Republican congressman faces off against Cheri Beasley, North Carolina’s former state Supreme Court chief justice, to replace Sen. Richard Burr, a Republican retiring at the end of his term that expires this year.
Democrats desperately want the Senate’s majority, and Beasley’s win would be historic for North Carolina as she would be the first African American elected to the seat. But North Carolina hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 2008, and it’s a purple state with unaffiliated voters making up its largest group.
The opponents have consistently polled in near ties. But Budd has an advantage in several recent polls, including those released by East Carolina University and The Trafalgar Group.
Marist put out an additional poll early Wednesday showing Budd and Beasley in a near tie among everyone polled — with Budd ahead, though within the poll’s margin of error, for those definitely planning to vote.
Marist Director Lee Miringoff said in a media briefing that Budd and Beasley had the same ratings for favorability, and that one in four of those polled had no impression of the candidates.
East Carolina University showed Budd with the largest gap over Beasley at 6 points, while Trafalgar showed Budd 4.2 percentage points ahead. Those results were outside each poll’s margins of error.
Yet another poll, by Civitas, showed Budd leading by 3.8 percentage points, just barely within that poll’s margin of error.
“This is the third straight poll — fourth if you focus on Likely Voters (as any reputable pollster will tell you is the metric that matters) — with Ted Budd in the lead, so it looks like Cheri Beasley is slowing down at the wrong time,” said Jonathan Felts, senior adviser to Budd, in a written statement. “All these polls also indicate the people of North Carolina are fed up with Joe Biden’s disastrous economic policies. On Election Day, Biden’s bad policies will be on the North Carolina ballot under the name of Cheri Beasley, so I’m feeling pretty good about our chances.”
Beasley’s team says it doesn’t feel defeated by the polls.
“This race is neck and neck 13 days out from Election Day because voters know that Cheri is the only candidate in this race that will put people first while Congressman Budd has spent six years focused on helping himself and his corporate donors at the expense of North Carolinians,” said Dory MacMillan, Beasley’s spokeswoman.
Western Carolina University political science professor Chris Cooper said that taken together, the polls are good news for Budd. And they are in line with what polls are showing across the country.
“The national mood is trending toward Republicans and away from Democrats,” Cooper said. “I don’t think there are a lot of race-specific dynamics that are driving this change. There really seems to be a rising Republican tide that is lifting all Republican boats.”
Marist Director of Strategy and Innovation Jay DeDapper said the margin between Republicans and Democrats in the poll is much narrower in North Carolina than other battleground states, and while that bodes well for Democrats, what doesn’t is Biden’s approval rating and concerns over inflation, which were also addressed in the poll.
DeDapper said it is also notable that 17% of those polled were undecided, and called that number significant. He said typically the undecided voters lean toward an incumbent, but without one, he wondered aloud if Budd becomes the de facto incumbent in voters’ minds.
Cooper said these polls don’t mean Beasley can’t still win the race.
“She could overcome it, and it could be that she isn’t even down right now,” Cooper said. “These are good results for Ted Budd, I don’t want to obscure that, but they’re snapshots in time. There are all sorts of errors in polling beyond just the margin of error and this is not an ironclad guarantee that Budd can win by 4 percentage points. It does suggest though, that Cheri Beasley has a lot of work to do.”
