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Belfast Live

National

Jane Corscadden

North Belfast Assembly election 2022 - Candidates and constituency history as Alliance surge threatens Sinn Féin

Alliance Sinn Féin Assembly DUP North Belfast Nuala McAllister Belfast Paula Bradley UUP Brian Kingston

In North Belfast, seats in the Assembly election have been typically evenly split between unionist and nationalist candidates.

The constituency, one to watch on May 5, spreads from Newtownabbey to the New Lodge, and in the 2019 Westminster election, the DUP's Nigel Dodds lost the seat he held for 18 years to Sinn Féin's John Finucane.

The 2011 census shows that 48.66% of those living in North Belfast said they identified as British, 29.88% identified as Irish, and 27.28% said they identified as Northern Irish.

At the last Assembly election in 2017, the three nationalist candidates managed to get three seats from 42.4% of first preferences, while unionists only got two seats from 42.8%.

The outgoing DUP MLA, Nelson McCausland, was overtaken by Alliance's Nuala McAllister. Polls suggest the Alliance Party could significantly increase its vote share and number of seats in the Assembly election in May.

Recent opinion polls suggest Alliance could rise from being the fifth-largest party in 2017 with 9.1% of first-preference votes and eight seats to the third-largest on more than 15% and seat numbers in double digits.

And North Belfast is one constituency the party are hoping to gain an MLA, after Ms McAllister ended the count just 556 votes behind Sinn Féin's Carál Ní Chuilín last time.

Ms Ní Chuilín will defend her seat again this year, alongside party colleague and long-serving MLA for the area, Gerry Kelly.

The battle in this constituency could be between Sinn Féin and Alliance, with Ms McAllister hoping to capitalise on the Alliance surge of 2019. North Belfast is one of Alliance's top targets for a gain, and missing out here would indicate lower chances of gains in other constituencies.

SDLP deputy leader Nichola Mallon will also be running in May's election after achieving 13.1% of the vote in 2017, and it's expected she will be able to defend her seat without any great problems.

Going into this election, the DUP hold two relatively safe Assembly seats and are not trying to regain a third.

But after more than a decade as an MLA for the area, Paula Bradley recently announced she won't be standing for re-election this year.

Ms Bradley told BBC NI her decision is to allow her more time to look after her mother, Charlotte, who is 80 and has a number of health issues.

William Humphrey has also announced he won't be standing for re-election in North Belfast after serving the constituency since 2010.

Instead, current DUP councillor and former Belfast lord mayor, Brian Kingston, is running in his place alongside Antrim and Newtownabbey councillor and one-time adviser to Nigel Dodds, Phillip Brett.

Ms Bradley and Mr Humphrey held a combined 22.3% of the vote in the 2017 election, and so it looks likely the DUP will secure a seat this time around.

While other unionist parties are running higher-profile campaigns in the constituency this year, it's unlikely they will be competitive unless unionist turnout improves.

Former PUP candidate Julie-Anne Corr-Johnston is running under the UUP flag, while Ron McDowell is running for the TUV after leaving the DUP in 2020.

Ms Corr-Johnston is a 34-year-old, gay, married mum-of-two and embodies the younger, female and LGBT perspectives and demographics the UUP has long wanted to expand within the party.

As a former councillor for the Oldpark area, she also gives the UUP a fresh foothold in North Belfast - a constituency it has not held an Assembly seat in since 2011.

Mr McDowell is hoping to provide a voice for those unionists against the Northern Ireland protocol.

When it comes to those parties commonly referred to as 'others', North Belfast has further representatives from the Green Party and People Before Profit running in the Assembly election.

Malachai O'Hara - who missed out on a seat for the Greens in 2017 after receiving just 1.7% of the vote - is running again this year, as is Fiona Ferguson, who secured 3.8% of the vote last time for People Before Profit.